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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1755

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 22 20:00:50 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 222000
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222000=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-222200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1755
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

    Areas affected...northern WY into southeast MT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 222000Z - 222200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
    across parts of southern Montana and northern Wyoming this afternoon
    and evening.

    DISCUSSION...Occasionally robust thunderstorms have developed over
    higher terrain in portions of southern MT and northern WY. Weak
    inhibition remains downstream over the adjacent high Plains, but
    additional heating and increasing ascent should allow for storms to
    become sustained further from the terrain with time into late
    afternoon. Regional VWP data shows elongated, straight hodographs
    amid steep midlevel lapse rates. While instability is muted due to
    the drier, post-frontal low-level airmass, MLCAPE will still be
    sufficient to sustain updrafts. Isolated strong to severe
    thunderstorms posing a risk for hail (possibly up to 2 inches,
    especially over far southeast MT) will be possible over the next
    several hours. Trends will be monitored and a severe thunderstorm
    watch may be needed for parts of the discussion area later this
    afternoon.

    ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Y65kLeIV3z6m82i5pGNnhxhbkvgbCNjSWJADjqsL3Sj4zB4pujMsRcXjMT8Eq3-QxX5Xy7bT= sKyk7DPFEl3OngtQB8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 45781046 46181020 46620976 46870927 46890803 46750614
    46530494 46260428 46040411 45650405 44750412 44330490
    44020652 43980783 43990872 44310889 44910939 45321021
    45781046=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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