ACUS11 KWNS 231024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231024=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...central to northeast SD and far southeast ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231024Z - 231230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A confined swath of strong to severe gusts and marginally
severe hail will be possible this morning. Monitoring for potential broadening/greater intensity to necessitate a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A persistent but compact cluster has spread northeast
from the Black Hills into central SD. This has a history of measured
severe at a pair of SD DOT sites in Pennington and Zeibach Counties.
This cluster will be approaching and potentially crossing the
quasi-stationary front that arcs from the MO River north of Pierre
to near Aberdeen and into far southeast ND. As it does so, it may
become anchored close to this boundary and may intensify as it
impinges on the modest MLCAPE plume across eastern SD. Most guidance
has struggled to adequately depict this convection, notably in
recent HRRR/RRFS runs. 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs did depict this cluster
but generally have a weakening trend into late morning as the veered
low-level jet diurnally subsides.

..Grams/Gleason.. 07/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8mWn9nEE1dJ131CdRAyG5GiSM8zQjh9MRK2jHMfBUW_jlZjj7MExo5Qe6tmYSx429ww3bK5c= 0iBi6AYoYQ6kRuvl5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45140115 45410001 45839846 46149734 46309679 45949658
45719670 45109694 44549992 44520119 45140115=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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