ACUS11 KWNS 231429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231429=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-231630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1760
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231429Z - 231630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may increase
through the morning. Strong, locally damaging wind gusts will be the
main hazard with storms into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A surface front draped across north-central MN into
central SD will continue to develop south/southeast this morning.
Thunderstorms ahead of this boundary across MN have shown some
indication of intensification as the downstream airmass warms into
the upper 70s to low 80s late this morning. Convective inhibition is
rapidly diminishing, and this may allow for gradual strengthening as
the boundary pushes southeast. Furthermore, severe storms in eastern
SD may eventually organize and develop eastward into parts of MN.
Vertical shear is weaker across central MN compared to some points
north and west. Nevertheless, the 12z RAOB from MPX showed around
1500 J/kg MLCAPE with some drier air between 850-700 mb and modestly
steep midlevel lapse rates. This may support strong to severe gusts.

Timing and convective evolution through the remainder of the morning
into early afternoon is uncertain, but a severe thunderstorm watch
may eventually be needed.

..Leitman/Smith.. 07/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!57uX0-CrfPtvrD7ss2PSv4jwksSsqwwdvXrGP6gVb9FIuZ-Vt-XTZhR6VQYuv6xXZRODagHSg= urZm7mKez-EbR-wbBc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45349617 46519394 46639309 46359218 45559201 44569206
44259280 44109424 44189532 44439624 44749647 45009638
45349617=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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