ACUS11 KWNS 231911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231911=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-232115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1762
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern Wyoming...southeastern Montana.
western South Dakota...and far northwestern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231911Z - 232115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms with a risk of large hail and severe gusts are
possible this afternoon across portions of eastern Wyoming,
southeastern Montana, western South Dakota, and northwestern
Nebraska. A watch may be needed to cover this threat.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing in a post-frontal upslope flow
regime in northern and eastern Wyoming. These storms are situated on
the southern periphery of a modest mid-level jet. This flow should
provide sufficient deep-layer shear for a supercell storm mode, and
given the relatively straight hodographs and lower freezing levels,
some severe hail is possible initially with these storms. The
deep-layer shear decreases markedly with southward extent, so this
may put a limit on the southern extent of the hail risk.

Given relatively high boundary layer humidity, cold pools may be
weaker, and therefore upscale growth may be slow to occur. However,
some clustering of storms is expected with time. This would
transition the primary threat to severe gusts given the relatively
steep low-level lapse rates and modest flow aloft on the regional
RAP short-term forecast profiles.

..Supinie/Smith.. 07/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6cIS2nteC6pHY3RKNb6gb7rRomyrJFYtYesspTDFUtg495PY9AXBJ0vmW9eBkT3Z40js_uKfV= 7b_w4Y5QVqKMTwdskI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 44000690 44750703 45160692 45360559 45400423 45350365
44910310 44300254 43410268 42890290 42410336 41940451
41840505 41900558 42280605 43080660 44000690=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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