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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 23 20:44:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 232044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232043=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-232245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1764
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

    Areas affected...parts of northeastern Colorado...southeast
    Wyoming...and far western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 232043Z - 232245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may produce a few severe gusts and some marginally
    severe hail across parts of northeastern Colorado, southeast
    Wyoming, and far western Nebraska this afternoon. A watch is not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Mid-level clouds from morning convection have been slow
    to clear portions of northeastern Colorado, and so heating has been
    delayed, which has led to some residual inhibition. Despite this, a
    narrow corridor of heating along the mountains has allowed storms to
    percolate along the Front Range this afternoon in a post-frontal
    upslope flow regime. These storms are well south of the strongest
    mid-level flow, and therefore deep-layer shear is relatively weak.
    Because of this, multicell clusters are expected to be the dominant
    storm mode. In addition, the environment has some mid-level dry air
    and steep lapse rates, which may lead to a threat for severe gusts
    with the strongest clusters. Some hail is possible with these storms
    given low freezing levels, but the lack of deep-layer shear and the
    multicell storm mode may limit the severe hail risk with these
    storms.

    ..Supinie/Smith.. 07/23/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!87PhGtEUXxmrYP3NOXEsLFumGTzhIzfsyslgEnpnOwCrYPqEcTNGyCIWJEcYAZJrQk4JcCVbe= jzSxUZ0nFO4vvMjQKU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40680557 41640546 41850488 41770385 41080351 40040356
    39160367 38950484 39590547 40680557=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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