ACUS11 KWNS 232213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232213=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-240015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Areas affected...Northeast WY into the Black Hills region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538...

Valid 232213Z - 240015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will shift southeast
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Short-wave trough is ejecting east across central MT
late this afternoon. Southern extent of this feature extends into
extreme northern WY where it appears to be aiding scattered
convection within moist southeasterly boundary-layer flow. Modest
westerly 6km flow is contributing to 0-6km bulk shear on the order
of 40kt across northeast WY into western SD. Profiles favor
supercell development, but considerable clustering is currently
observed with a complex that is gradually expanding as it propagates
into the west side of the Black Hills. Large hail should be the
primary concern, along with the threat of wind.

..Darrow.. 07/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xwEF7TifBaGwIVO49qPmL8wKra2v--6hBiKBP07HzQ43pEWyEa_tlF7y8ft2k09-M2sCdp0F= g6W18YRZUTb4wPR3io$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 42570658 44990697 44990328 42570306 42570658=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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