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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1774

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 24 21:40:56 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 242140
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242139=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-242315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1774
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0439 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northern Illinois...northern
    Indiana...southern parts of Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540...

    Valid 242139Z - 242315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should persist
    across portions of the OH Valley through the remainder of the
    evening, with severe gusts the main threat. Convective trends will
    be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance in
    southeast Lower MI.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered multicells and short bowing segments have
    been percolating in intensity over northern IL to far southwestern
    Lower MI over the past few hours. Multiple damaging gusts have been
    reported, some measured over 50 kts in magnitude. Though vertical
    wind shear remains modest across the southern Great Lakes (e.g.
    25-35 kts of effective bulk shear), over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE exist in
    some spots, which will encourage additional water-loaded downdrafts
    given 1.8-2.0 inch PWATs in place. Strong to severe gusts remain a
    concern through the remainder of the afternoon. It is unclear how
    far east the severe gust threat will persist. However, convective
    trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch issuance should the severe threat persist.

    ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7G9fByt0G7EpFDEJ0ZVULyD-s8fgmJFZi6AUeJwbo5RszYg6mVgRG2ZgcoPfLoiUrwXu7q11p= -muUdp_LBjZOittCP8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40958974 42358664 42908537 43308366 43478258 43198237
    42778249 42478276 42218311 41988342 41858386 41488531
    41118643 40778738 40648804 40578921 40958974=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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