ACUS11 KWNS 250113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250113=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-250245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Missouri into west-central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 250113Z - 250245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may occur with a
cold-pool-driven MCS over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS has recently organized into a
quasi-bowing structure oriented roughly normal to the 20-30 kt
effective bulk shear vectors. Surface observations suggest 10-20 F
surface temperature deficits behind the main line. Given modest
forward propagation of the MCS noted into a favorable airmass
characterized by 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, a couple of damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out along locally stronger surges of the cold
pool/convective leading line. Nonetheless, the severe threat will be
isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65NEgEPU3R4Jp20OLk2l6LJMaK42KSZItY4uykW3XIMQmLAvMGQv0NaspWj7QqGcd5fSeGlUO= nc7He3z2R2jlP7xT-Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 40029196 40149090 39838994 39348977 39039008 38939041
38969103 38989145 38989182 39059223 40029196=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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