ACUS11 KWNS 250131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250131=20
NYZ000-250330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Areas affected...parts of extreme western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 250131Z - 250330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Approaching storms may maintain enough intensity to
produce a strong, damaging gust or two before dissipating. A WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of outflow dominant storms across far
southeast Ontario is approaching extreme western New York from the west-northwest at 30-35 kts. These storms, and their outflow
boundaries, may cross Lake Erie and far southern Lake Ontario and
reach the New York shoreline in the next 60-90 minutes. While
convection may weaken over the next few hours given diurnal cooling,
a few strong wind gusts may be generated over open waters given less
surface friction. A couple of strong wind gusts could be damaging as
they reach the shoreline and immediate adjacent land areas.
Nonetheless, the severe risk should be sparse at best, so a WW
issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8oFd-Z_NV-QuTfLQQGk7RhNETbKzHYlTvmNJ157mD5hJqo1tT66GrI22wq8R3NWFsi219yfAQ= P2T2mwgrIQVRaKrRZI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON 42407864 42097925 42137953 42247966 42317969 42677911
42967902 43187908 43357905 43487851 43407776 43327751
43177743 42837772 42407864=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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