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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1786

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 26 01:54:28 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 260154
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260153=20
    NDZ000-260300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1786
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0853 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

    Areas affected...portions of western into central North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543...

    Valid 260153Z - 260300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe gusts remain possible with ongoing storms in
    northwestern and southwestern ND, and a couple instances of severe
    hail are still possible.

    DISCUSSION...Two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are in
    progress; one over northwestern ND, and the other in southwestern
    ND. The northwestern cluster has shown bow-echo tendencies, and has
    produced measured severe gusts with an established cold pool, with
    20-30 F temperatures deficits noted via the NDAWN surface
    observational network. However, the 00Z BIS observed sounding and
    mesoanalysis depict overall weak vertical wind shear in western
    portions of the state, particularly at low levels. BIS radar data
    also shows the northwestern cluster becoming outflow dominant,
    perhaps being undercut by the cold pool given poor countering
    low-level shear. It is unclear how much longer the short-term severe
    wind threat will last with this cluster.

    Severe wind reports have yet to be received by the southwestern
    cluster. Nonetheless, severe gusts are possible under the condition
    that further upscale growth and intensification occurs, as was the
    case with the northwestern cluster.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4-QjCksDTBCKauN8X-D3Lh2O3CoImOR1EaKJGC876kAJbcHS3Klyc64h09uGk63Oam1I5t6r0= p08wxHHErFrSJeMj_8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46160397 48090312 48560274 48890178 48960057 48530001
    47889988 46939987 46220028 46080118 46040338 46160397=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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