ACUS11 KWNS 260424
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260424=20
NDZ000-260600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Areas affected...Central into northeast ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543...

Valid 260424Z - 260600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543
continues.

SUMMARY...At least an isolated threat for severe wind and hail may
continue overnight.

DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster that earlier weakened
across southwest ND has recently intensified west of Bismarck. A
strengthening low-level jet observed on recent VWPs from KBIS may be
aiding the recent intensification of both the eastward-moving storm
cluster, and an area of midlevel convection that has recently
deepened north of Bismarck. Ongoing storms remain relatively
disorganized with a tendency for outflow to undercut convection, but
steep midlevel lapse rates and large MUCAPE (2500 J/kg or greater)
will continue to support some potential for hail with the strongest
cores, along with strong to severe gust potential, especially with
the cluster approaching Bismarck.=20

Farther north, an earlier intense storm cluster has mostly
dissipated across northwest ND, but some recent intensification of
new updrafts has been noted east of Minot, just behind the remnant eastward-moving outflow. Very strong buoyancy (MUCAPE of 3000-4000
J/kg) remains in place into northeast ND. Given the favorable MUCAPE
and midlevel lapse rates, an uptick in storm coverage and intensity
is possible into the overnight hours. With CINH increasing and
deep-layer shear expected to remain rather modest, potential for
longer-lived cells and/or organized upscale growth remains
uncertain. The potential for any downstream watch issuance will
depend on short-term trends regarding storm coverage and
organization.

..Dean/Mosier.. 07/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ywMLw4qx-C9yXTWkebGgMUnVr5GRCT9isxdGjZ4_WBVveerz8PQLgaOS0pfbmlv-cCjVRwXy= q6pwraI0pP0nPSuwVA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46950205 47240179 47620092 48930031 49149892 49119802
48709755 47819838 46589956 46080087 45970174 46950205=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)