ACUS11 KWNS 261751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261751=20
DEZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-262015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...south-central Pennsylvania...much of Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261751Z - 262015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe wind gusts are forecast to
develop through the afternoon, from southern Pennsylvania into
Maryland. Expected severe coverage may not necessitate the need for
a watch.

DISCUSSION...Storms are already developing over south-central PA,
along the southern periphery of a weak MCV. Morning soundings and
other sensors indicate PWAT values near 2.00", with relatively poor
lapse rates aloft. However, the air mass ahead of the ongoing
activity and southward into MD/VA continues to heat strongly, and
this will both increase instability through the afternoon, and
steepen low-level lapse rates.

With time, ongoing activity over southern PA may effectively link
with incipient development over the higher terrain of eastern
WV/northern VA, with storms moving east/southeast across MD and
northern VA. Tall moist profiles combined with modest northwest flow
aloft around the upper high and increasing DCAPE over 1000 J/kg will
favor a localized areas of strong to perhaps severe gusts.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_cflIM6gyUJIvMJy1By5WJY8szHOxhjBEVYus9dHRE-nm6gFs5-BJ-fo7k4E5HP-LoJai2BIj= zEdkgX4n7iXxgUi8BE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38497666 38897800 39177835 39627830 40117802 40477758
40427689 40257624 40037585 39887578 39617575 39077569
38827573 38597584 38447608 38417628 38497666=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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