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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1792

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 26 20:49:02 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 262048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262048=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-262145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1792
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

    Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262048Z - 262145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity across the high terrain will move
    eastward into the evening with potential for damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been steadily developing
    across the high terrain in Colorado/Wyoming over the last couple of
    hours. Dew points in these regions are low in the mid 40s, with
    better moisture located across Nebraska into southern South Dakota.
    CAM guidance suggests that activity will develop along eastward
    moving outflow by late afternoon/evening. Downstream, temperatures
    have warmed into the upper 90s to 100s, with dew point spreads
    around 40-50 degrees. Though deep layer shear remains weak, large
    dew point spreads and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote
    some damaging wind potential. In addition, the low level jet is
    progged to increase through the evening with the deepening of a
    surface low across South Dakota. While watch issuance is not
    anticipated, trends in this area will be monitored.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5mzd3QZ2RHpGPnd_O-GMU8c7G-Qr9A1QmPnBTiJO5YH2YP14QD1344xCbKrmWhEOOFFp-Z8kv= uKr5fADBbOlO6l4WS0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40260402 41080408 41840406 42470402 43020290 43000219
    42740161 41530106 40210064 39650105 39350162 39430319
    40260402=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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