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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1793

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 26 20:52:27 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 262050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262050=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-262315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1793
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

    Areas affected...much of central into northern South Dakota into
    southern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262050Z - 262315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will increase over the next 1-2 hours over central
    South Dakota, with further activity developing north/northeastward
    into southern North Dakota. Damaging winds appear likely, with
    locally large hail. Isolated significant gusts cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows storms beginning to develop near
    the surface low over south-central SD, in a very steep lapse rate
    environment. The 18Z UNR soundings shows 9.5 C/km midlevel lapse
    rates, and modest westerlies aloft. East of there, surface analysis
    depicts MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, and a theta-e axis roughly
    along the ND/SD border counties.

    Given the observed TCU vigor over south-central SD currently, this
    may be the initiation point for a larger-scale,
    northward-propagating complex of storms depicted in some CAM
    solutions. Otherwise, it is also possible outflow from high-based
    storms coming out of WY into western NE may produce outflow aiding
    further development as well.

    ..Jewell.. 07/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_eOpfqHa04I070GFUDtBtRdhj6YIKnFg1Xc6afNQku3LrUNvAXZ2In3cvXOd2X3qdbcUUQ9Ui= pyumAczuENMlFG37Mo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43140128 43830130 44500152 45160194 45550265 46150284
    46800235 47290018 47319857 46949712 46709687 46289670
    45579699 45589706 43979908 43360008 43060102 43140128=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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