ACUS11 KWNS 262134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262134=20
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Illinois into central
Indiana and Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262134Z - 262330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms as
they continue to coalesce through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Several pulse-cellular and multicellular storms have
organized from eastern IL into OH over the past few hours. Ahead of
these storms resides strong buoyancy (e.g. 3000 J/kg MLCAPE), but
modest vertical wind shear (20-30 kts of effective bulk shear). The
current thinking is that strong wind gusts are possible with the
stronger wet downbursts, and a severe gust or two cannot be ruled
out, particularly with merging storm cold pools. However, the
overall severe threat should remain isolated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4DUQ4eETn6bQ3YVjTgxIHbDJyZdmO-Wg36h2-DL4d2TwQ9NDolfXH2xG2toKFIMiXaZSqz9e4= M48yLF3k6yqPNBURlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40988867 41398753 41418421 41118207 40678127 40218085
39758097 39578166 39668260 39838395 40008583 39918717
39888790 39918827 40988867=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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