ACUS11 KWNS 262235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262234=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...Northern Wyoming into southeast Montana and the
western Dakotas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262234Z - 270030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An uptick in convection is noted across northern WY into
southeast MT. Trends are being monitored for the potential
development of an organized cluster/line later this evening. Timing
remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if/when this
cluster begins to emerge and pose severe wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Increasing ascent ahead of a mid-level wave over
central WY is evident in recent GOES imagery across northern WY into
southeast MT. Within the past hour or so, the number of shallow
convective cores, as well as the depth/intensity of existing cores,
has begun to increase as ascent attendant to the wave begins to
overspread a modestly buoyant air mass in place across the northern
High Plains. Over the next couple of hours, coverage of initially
cellular, high-based thunderstorms should increase before gradual
cold pool amalgamation begins to occur. It remains unclear if cold
pool consolidation will be sufficient for the development of a more
prominent convective cluster/line, but recent CAM guidance suggests
that this could be the initiation zone for a more prolonged MCS that
moves northeast into the western Dakotas later this evening.
Regardless, in the short term, the high-based nature of the storms
within a deeply mixed environment should support the potential for
strong to severe downburst winds. A few instances of large hail are
also possible within initially discrete cells given increasing
deep-layer winds shear with the approach of the upper wave.
Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance
is possible later this evening if/when an organized cluster or line
begins to emerge.

..Moore/Mosier.. 07/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4X9W50mfUXA0eikYMhAdOUGDeDkzajdnL6P4ITgUIdFrMG-v8GEvm7T8LDVngElqbJSTpn5VQ= 7CkUFBKs47_O5sss1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 43800557 43610633 43640712 44100783 44590804 44920795
46470447 46510360 46300307 45820272 45360264 45010267
44580294 44330326 43800557=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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