ACUS11 KWNS 270710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270709=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-270845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...western to north-central ND and far northwest SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...547...

Valid 270709Z - 270845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546, 547
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts and hail will remain possible
through about dawn, mainly across parts of western to north-central
North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...A messy/complex convective setup is ongoing with a
myriad of line segments, clusters, and a pair of splitting cells. A
broken line has spread into far western ND ahead of an MCV over far
northeast MT, while a small cluster is just ahead of the line in
southwest ND/far northwest SD. Both have produced marginal severe
gusts in the past hour and may continue to do so for the next few
hours. Downstream surface observations suggest the plume of upper
60s surface dew points has become confined in a pocket across
southwest ND arcing into north-central ND, in the wake of earlier
convective outflows. The right-mover of a pair of splitting cells
anchored long the north end of the buoyancy plume across
north-central ND has had mid-level rotation and may produce isolated
severe hail as well.

..Grams.. 07/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_atP2NMDEU_l7VG2rHKWqJ4xPaXL65TQbSe6aC2O_g2wmZyMhYfVEpCt232lCGS5GRK0taq7c= uEeHBtGhyi2f8vBw8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 49009967 48619960 48190008 47590068 46960109 46160125
45600167 45540276 45610337 45970345 46570338 47560356
48180391 48470371 48690229 49009967=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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