ACUS11 KWNS 271750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271749=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1809
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...west-central Minnesota...far eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271749Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may persist for a couple hours,
producing large hail and localized damaging winds. We are monitoring
for expansion in areal coverage, in which case a watch could be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Within a steep midlevel lapse rate environment, an area
of midlevel convection moving out of northeast SD has erupted into a
large supercell, currently ongoing over west-central MN. This cell
is firmly within an 850 mb theta-e advection zone, with strong
overall instability in this axis.

While the surface air mass just south/southeast of this cell may
contain CIN initially, the combination of heating and eventual
outflow production may result in additional development along the
southwest flank. Indeed, latest visible satellite images indicate
new towers extending southwestward across the MN/SD border, which
could be developing just above the surface. At the very least, it
indicates unstable inflow into the existing cell/developing complex,
with some possibility of expansion. Given the robustness and size of
this isolated storm, a watch cannot be ruled out, but is more likely
if the overall size/coverage can increase in the near term.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_YXxuymJRXlfBWCAQhiIFWXEEM0YM-J7olYBgzDvyykk_dmxcVWqdlwBxRpRdtlB8TSzz2YrJ= 6SKGo443iMAiLETRW8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45429607 45509525 45489455 45329445 45079448 44679459
44459478 44239582 44219682 44379727 44569735 45259642
45429607=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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