ACUS11 KWNS 271750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271750=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...northern Virginia...portions of Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271750Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of strong to severe wind
to continue through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to
continue through the afternoon across portions of northern Virginia
and Maryland. The environment across this region is very unstable,
with a gradient of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. Factors that should
limit the overall severe risk will be weak shear and poor mid-level
lapse rates. Nonetheless, given the hot and unstable air mass, a few
instances of strong to severe wind will be possible. Given the
widely scattered nature of this threat, a watch is not anticipated
at this time.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Fc1Mtgyvxo9q3E6igMEbtz_Giz2mHmvcdL-awaFdDRIkPfjT8tkCcF11E_Z1XzGRhLaOfUED= 3dgzOJzLSffm7AvHlI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38207796 38577802 38947808 39017788 39167685 39147638
38357592 37527589 36857611 36757691 37137759 37477790
38207796=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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