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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1812

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 27 21:25:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 272125
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272125=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-272200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1812
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0425 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

    Areas affected...Northeastern South Dakota...Western and Central
    Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

    Valid 272125Z - 272200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue to develop over the
    next couple of hours from northeastern South Dakota into western and
    central Minnesota. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary
    threats. Weather watch issuance will be needed soon.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a small cluster of
    strong to severe thunderstorms over far western Minnesota. This
    activity is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on
    water vapor imagery. The storms are located to the northeast of a
    bullseye of very strong instability. Across northeastern South
    Dakota, MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 5000 to 6000 J/kg range.
    Further east, the airmass is less unstable. As low-level flow
    increases late this afternoon and early this evening, convective
    coverage will gradually increase. In addition to the instability,
    regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate deep-layer shear across this
    unstable airmass. 0-6 km shear is estimated by the RAP to be in the
    35 to 40 knot range, which will likely support supercell
    development. Supercells will have potential for large hail and wind
    damage. A brief tornado will be possible with most of intense of
    storms. In addition, an organized line segment will also be
    possible. This mode would be more favorable for damaging wind gusts.

    ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6nTs3uyuhGszDOrkQeltGqqi6Q0x-a3pYw5_mdz2JZ69w3fR5YT3Sy5rHt-lbHJs2eK5OIcpF= 52nom7B21MtgV-MbD4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 46129592 46269508 46209410 45939378 45509390 44359557
    43639603 43099661 42879752 42999800 43709852 44759883
    45359839 45889704 46129592=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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