ACUS11 KWNS 272154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272154=20
MNZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 272154Z - 280030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop over the next 2
to 3 hours across parts of northern Minnesota. Large hail and wind
damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will
likely be needed once the exact timing of cell initiation becomes
clear.

DISCUSSION...At the surface, a 1008 mb low is currently analyzed
just to the north of the U.S.-Canadian border in far western
Ontario. A front is located to the southwest of the low, with a very
moist airmass in place over much of northern Minnesota ahead of the
front. Surface heating early this afternoon has contributed strong
instability across most of this airmass, with the RAP showing MLCAPE
generally in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. As the front moves
southeastward across northern Minnesota late this afternoon and
early this evening, low-level convergence is forecast to increase
near or ahead of the boundary. This will likely result in convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
coverage early this evening, with a severe threat developing. The
instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear evident on
regional WSR-88D VWPs, will support an isolated large hail and
wind-damage threat. As convective coverage increases, the severe
threat is expected to gradually shift eastward toward the Arrowhead
of Minnesota.

..Broyles.. 07/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Ye6x6TlGvP7m6ax3UEf217liLD-vjJXVcAsjPg4CEuItXngXe1MsoX0r938cURXDBhUztc6Z= 2ezEiPt0NUzB378G9E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 48289522 48559482 48679423 48609332 48389219 48199143
47939097 47649096 47419106 46969190 46869312 47099469
47459526 47959535 48289522=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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