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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1814

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 27 22:43:10 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 272243
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272242=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-280015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1814
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0542 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast VA into northeast NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272242Z - 280015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will spread southward through the
    early evening.

    DISCUSSION...An extensive area of convection and composite outflow
    is moving southward across southern VA early this evening. Within
    this large area of convection, a few embedded clusters have
    accelerated southeastward and produced reports of wind damage.=20

    South of the composite outflow, a sea breeze boundary is moving
    westward across far southeast VA and northeast NC. South of the
    outflow and west of the sea breeze, temperatures remain rather hot,
    with MLCAPE still in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Moderate MLCAPE also
    persists within the very moist environment to the cool side of the
    sea breeze. Effective shear is marginally supportive of organized
    convection, though weak low-level flow will continue to result in a
    tendency for outflow to outpace convection in some areas.=20

    Localized corridors of wind damage may spread southward through the
    early evening, especially near boundary intersections, and also
    where convection is able to keep pace with the outflow.

    ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4pRsq0T6BBNn8fC3hjdSZgTEctLkYcuHKb7kPg9_sY74v2jzbdem27o9pp6sTMduK-wSkPF9D= b9aUmYxcWB6yfBaHj8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36727951 37038028 37398011 37667978 37607917 37257695
    36817591 36427576 36087594 36157748 36297844 36587906
    36727951=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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