ACUS11 KWNS 272325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272325=20
MTZ000-280130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272325Z - 280130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may increase into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have been increasing in coverage across parts of western/central MT over the last 1-2 hours. Low-level moisture is
generally modest across the region, though steep midlevel lapse
rates are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (locally higher).
Guidance suggests that a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough
moving along the periphery of the central Plains upper ridge will
continue to aid in storm development through the evening.=20

Effective shear of 35-45 kt is sufficient for supercells and/or
organized clusters, though the threat may remain rather isolated in
the short term, due to the marginal instability. If a strong cell or
two (such as the one moving across far southwest Alberta that may
approach northwest MT) can become established, then a localized
severe hail and wind threat will be possible. Watch issuance is
considered unlikely in the short term due to the anticipated
isolated coverage, but trends will be monitored for an uptick in
organized convection. Some guidance suggests organized upscale
growth may be possible later tonight, as convection spreads eastward
into a somewhat more moist and unstable environment.

..Dean/Mosier.. 07/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5wrX1hiGGU2NGcNxakMUoBgH3is1cR4Z9iFWCASnt90zJOq7_ERU54_w3RZn7pXtOfp-5PRCC= qsQeS7G6jQkDyVw-t4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 49081333 49140907 48920734 46980670 45890831 46031003
46911253 47831304 48991389 49081333=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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