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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1816

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 27 23:34:36 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 272334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272333=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-280130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1816
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0633 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

    Areas affected...Northern Nebraska and South-central South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 272333Z - 280130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop early this evening
    from parts of north-central Nebraska into south-central South
    Dakota. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low over
    south-central South Dakota. A thermal axis currently extends
    southward from the low into central Nebraska, along which
    temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s F. To the east of the
    thermal axis, surface dewpoints are generally in the mid 70s to the
    lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate to strong instability,
    with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. Multiple
    cells are developing near to the thermal axis. These cells are
    expected to develop into thunderstorms and move eastward across
    northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota early this evening. This
    area is located near the southern edge of an upper-level jet, which
    is helping to create moderate deep-layer shear over much of the
    region. The instability and shear should be sufficient for an
    isolated severe threat for several hours this evening. Large hail
    and wind damage will be the primary threats.

    ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5YCoZ1OeJLOZcQrxQhhevC-kaqHTJXI9ObjVMSOcW9nd4_0flbeBy3EdyYHZB9BfTrYG7W9WU= XCHgs0RyQ7VgiuQuyU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44300010 44579954 44589904 44489866 44119843 43569846
    42859884 42089958 41860009 41840069 42040128 42490141
    43230114 44300010=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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