ACUS11 KWNS 281003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281002=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-281200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1820
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...eastern MT...western ND...and far northwest SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 281002Z - 281200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible through
mid-morning with initial elevated storms across the northern Great
Plains. Some potential exists for greater than anticipated coverage
which could warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have been ongoing for the past
several hours, but one cell has recently intensified near GDV.
GSL-MPAS runs appear to be favorably handling this activity
spatially, albeit slower than observed. The general expectation are
for these storms to persist through daybreak into mid-morning,
largely eastward in ND along the buoyancy gradient. A belt of
enhanced mid-level westerlies, as sampled by the GGW VWP, will be
sufficient for updraft rotation and a primary threat of large hail.
Weak convection has also recently formed near the MT/ND/SD border
area. If this activity intensifies as well, a broader cluster might
emerge which could increase the severe wind threat later this
morning.

..Grams/Hart.. 07/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_yn72LwNn3kn3oBvxcdBt47B7mf7-u7L-MYTaWxJgiA6mjZIrOWXifZyEku5sz9j-jbLYubYL= EWfbiL2atglC4bMkNY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 47440506 47960221 47850115 47140051 46260091 45790163
45630266 45750410 45960502 46180629 46360694 46730682
47440506=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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