ACUS11 KWNS 282250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282249=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern South Dakota...Far Northern Nebraska...Western Minnesota...Far Northwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552...

Valid 282249Z - 290045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours from
much of central and eastern South Dakota southward into far northern
Nebraska. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind
damage and isolated large hail. Severe weather watch issuance is
expected early this evening to the east of the ongoing watch, as the
severe threat moves eastward toward southwestern Minnesota and
northwest Iowa.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-res imagery from Sioux Falls, South
Dakota shows three intense discrete supercells ongoing in
south-central South Dakota. The storms are located to the west of a north-to-south moisture axis where surface dewpoints are in the
lower 80s F. The low-level moisture is contributing to strong
instability, with the RAP showing a pocket of MLCAPE in the 5000 to
6000 J/kg range. The storms are being supported by large-scale
ascent associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the
central Dakotas. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer
shear is analyzed by the RAP over much of the northern Plains. The
Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has a substantial amount of low-level
directional shear, with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This will
support continued supercell development. Tornadoes, wind damage and
isolated large hail will be likely with the more intense cells. Over
the next several hours, convective coverage is expected to increase,
as a gradual consolidation of convection occurs. In response, a
fast-moving line of storms is expected to form by early to mid
evening in eastern South Dakota, which will likely increase the
wind-damage threat with bowing line segments along its leading edge.
Wind gusts in the 80 to 100 mph will be possible.

..Broyles.. 07/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4puBgYWGz1FYCGRjmsyyu4-eHp98ywMP2TLHjTZ9crIFLbhQ-z34DpHK5efoQpHD745LD9EH-= NgPaJzxUZF8snVajME$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42549939 42650001 42860025 43190036 43750018 44559981
45359920 45969797 46099711 45989603 45499544 44589526
43999539 43309559 42659600 42359705 42549939=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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