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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1827

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 29 01:15:37 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 290114
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290113=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1827
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0813 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

    Areas affected...Minnesota...Far Northwest Iowa...Southeast South
    Dakota...Far Northeast Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...554...

    Valid 290113Z - 290315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553, 554
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue over the next few
    hours from central Minnesota southwestward into far southeast South
    Dakota and northwest Iowa. Wind damage and hail will be the primary
    threats, although a brief tornado could also occur.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an MCS located
    from west-central Minnesota southwestward into southeast South
    Dakota and far northern Nebraska. The MCS is located to the north
    and northeast of a pocket of very strong instability, centered over
    far northeast Nebraska. The MCS is expected to move southeastward
    along a sharp gradient of instability into south-central Minnesota
    and northwest Iowa over the next few hours. A severe threat will
    likely continue with the stronger cells. Wind damage and hail will
    be the primary threats. The greatest severe threat may be over far
    southwest Minnesota, northwest Iowa and northeast Nebraska where the
    RAP shows the strongest instability. MLCAPE in that area is
    estimated to be in the 5500 to 6500 J/kg range. If a cold pool can
    organize and move quickly southeastward, then a swath of wind damage
    will be possible this evening. In that case, severe wind gusts in
    the 75 to 90 mph would be possible.

    ..Broyles.. 07/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!94wPsRHzP2sqW8g6iZrEvziDI7qY8PWrSr6k12VAntSsf5css5vEbT9f-M2gW9voVfCY6Byn5= qV83s8RHJDEKubnHUE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

    LAT...LON 45819405 45649361 45289332 44769349 43989442 43309530
    42589628 42109715 41979784 42209855 42569885 43279883
    43859819 45099637 45789524 45919462 45819405=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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