ACUS11 KWNS 292000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291959=20
NEZ000-292200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1834
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Areas affected...parts of southwest into central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291959Z - 292200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strongest thunderstorm development may become focused
across parts of southwestern into central Nebraska through 4-7 PM
CDT. This may include a few evolving supercell structures posing a
risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado.

DISCUSSION...Within lee surface troughing across much of western
Kansas and adjacent portions of the high plains, a strongly heating
(including surface temperatures approaching 100 F) and increasingly
deeply mixed boundary layer is becoming characterized by moderate
CAPE based on latest objective analysis. Mid-level inhibition is
gradually eroding and deepening convective development is evident,
including the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity. As a
weak mid-level perturbation shifts east of the Front Range, models
suggest that thunderstorm development may increase either side of a
remnant frontal zone within the lee surface trough, which is
forecast to slowly shift southeast of the high plains through early evening.=20=20

Near the nose of the stronger pre-frontal heating, now developing
north and east of the McCook NE vicinity toward areas between North
Platte and Kearney, surface dew points in the lower 70s F are
contributing to moderate to large CAPE along an initially stalled
segment of the frontal zone, where low-level convergence may
eventually focus strongest thunderstorm development. Although wind
fields in lower through mid-levels are rather weak, easterly
near-surface flow veering to northerly near the eastward migrating
frontal wave (beneath southerly mid-level flow) may contribute to
sufficient shear for intensifying supercell structures posing a risk
for severe hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Otherwise, storms,
particularly those forming in the strongly heated pre-frontal
environment, may pose a risk for locally strong to severe surface
gusts.

..Kerr/Smith.. 07/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9RF9vKvQgg9g5gXCYrrxh0NzYz5DXcSlw5ZjneNHteZHBh4fFE_XSwwqqZ0isIVY-lQ1_wPwB= lKSvLvqRVxwqcA518M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 41370111 41600024 41509902 40809880 40069930 40170045
40220138 40670161 41370111=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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