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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1837

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 29 21:55:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 292155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292155=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-300030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1837
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0455 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwest Kansas...Southwest and
    Central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292155Z - 300030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue across parts of
    the central High Plains through early this evening. Severe gusts and
    hail will be the primary threats. The potential should remain
    marginal, and watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level
    moisture from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains.
    Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume, from a
    surface low in southeast Colorado northeastward along and to the
    west of an inverted surface trough. Moderate to strong instability
    is analyzed by the RAP along much of this trough, but deep-layer
    shear is weak. This is evident on the Goodland and North Platte
    WSR-88D VWPs. In spite of the weak deep-layer shear, low-level lapse
    rates are very steep, which should support an isolated wind-damage
    and hail threat.

    ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7yRHS83pm1o5-MQuWmEpjwS6_4_xbrH0kEsfqh_HO-BEwoOf0rIfcJjVjlx2HPM-3haucXsl2= 0JQ-yxrox_uczK1OJc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 41849982 41159979 39820014 38610104 37920189 37500280
    37340356 37490404 37860436 38360447 38760417 39610303
    40460193 41320122 41830093 42070062 42080024 41849982=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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