1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1838

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 29 23:23:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 292323
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292322=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-300145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1838
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0622 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

    Areas affected...Far Southeast Montana...Eastern Wyoming...Far
    Western South Dakota...Far Western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 292322Z - 300145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop from far southeast
    Montana into eastern Wyoming over the next few hours. Isolated large
    hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. Weather
    watch issuance will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass over the
    central and northern High Plains, with upslope flow in place from
    western Nebraska and western South Dakota into eastern Wyoming.
    Surface heating is maximized near a surface trough located in
    east-central Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms, with some severe, are
    ongoing near the trough. Short-term model forecasts including the
    HRRR, continue to increase convective coverage, suggesting that a
    line will develop in far southeast Montana and eastern Wyoming over
    the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings in eastern Wyoming
    early this evening have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, with 700-500 mb
    lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for
    large hail and severe gusts with supercells. Intense multicell line
    segments may also produce severe wind gusts and hail.

    ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rBF84FTXqhXHtwRQztZOaaeiQ9H31oWXIW8ol1PhqlJbuFxt_sgBmywKoncBJBhQTQY60VxH= kK1hwYZPyqBDHsM3sE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 45630416 45790467 45770546 45530600 44800605 43540603
    42090606 41420602 41110544 41070463 41170402 41530352
    42190339 43330350 45220397 45630416=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)