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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1842

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 30 02:45:50 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 300244
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300243=20
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-300445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1842
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0943 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

    Areas affected...Far Southeast Montana...Northeast Wyoming...Western
    South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556...558...

    Valid 300243Z - 300445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556, 558
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for a few more hours
    from northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota. Isolated large
    hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest hi-res radar imagery from Rapid City, South
    Dakota shows a small cluster of severe storms in far southeastern
    Montana. These storms are located within an upslope regime near an
    axis of low-level moisture where surface dewpoints are in the lower
    to mid 60s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, with the
    RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Over the next
    couple of hours, short-term model forecasts move the storms
    southeastward across far northeast Wyoming and into western South
    Dakota, with convective coverage gradually increasing. RAP forecast
    soundings to the north of Rapid City have 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40
    knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment
    should continue to support a threat for supercells with severe gusts
    and isolated large hail. Intense multicell line segments could also
    produce strong to severe wind gusts.

    ..Broyles.. 07/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!59VA8rlj4tNS1pCCHr1czY4x1s33QK8kcDO_CbPAzfYXF9bkL7qdF24o47vWRC0ICcYWj7APQ= 8UYrVrSlFsvOoiGwpU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 45110291 45000226 44680204 44170196 43760221 43680280
    43680405 43780451 44080495 44530509 44800484 45000430
    45110291=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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