• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1843

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 30 04:56:01 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 300455
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300455=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-300700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1843
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast NE...Western IA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559...560...

    Valid 300455Z - 300700Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559, 560
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe gusts remains across
    southeast NE and western IA.

    DISCUSSION...The merger of two somewhat separate convective lines
    resulting in complex convective evolution across eastern NE and
    western IA over the past hour or so. The result is singular
    convective line that extends from near SLB in Buena Vista County IA southwestward to about 40 miles south-southeast of HSI in Nuckolls
    County NE. The overall system remains fairly strong, with cold cloud
    tops (i.e. -70 to -75 deg C) and high reflectivity above 30 kft.
    Even so, the outflow has surged out ahead of the line and the number
    of strong to severe gusts has been gradually decreasing. Given that
    strong buoyancy remains in place, the intensity of the convection
    should continue to modulate, occasionally resulting in strong to
    severe gusts. Mergers with any leading cells could also act to
    enhance the strong/severe gust potential.

    ..Mosier.. 07/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7MWyX4vidc-2MPN7U1ky3pbpNxgiaKQ9F2x3FcK_Ei3GC8IyiDCll6Fz7mYx94IS7aVJM1GMT= cY-bcvxdBi0OScsUnw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 42309606 42619486 42249404 40809431 40529600 40569724
    40969766 41659725 42309606=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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