ACUS01 KWNS 101233
SWODY1
SPC AC 101232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rich low-level moisture present over southern AZ and the Lower CO
River Valley this morning will spread northward today as an upper
trough/low moves slowly inland along the West Coast. Across the
Great Basin, lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain fairly modest,
and daytime heating will likely be hindered to some extent by
mid/high-level cloudiness. Still, at least weak instability should
develop by late afternoon, which combined with increasing mid-level
flow with the approach of the upper trough/low may support a strong thunderstorm or two. However, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include any hail/wind probabilities across the
southern Great Basin and vicinity with this update.

Elsewhere, ongoing elevated thunderstorms aided by a westerly
low-level jet may persist through the morning over MO and IL before
eventually weakening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also
occur today across parts of the FL Peninsula/Keys, Great Lakes, and
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Across all these regions, the
forecast combination of instability and shear appears inadequate for
organized severe convection.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101631
SWODY1
SPC AC 101629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River
Valley vicinity this afternoon into evening.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin...
Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the
West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward
the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present
across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this
moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization
should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of
residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into
southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing
mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may
support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of
transient supercells.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101950
SWODY1
SPC AC 101949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River
Valley vicinity the remainder of this afternoon into the evening.

...20z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Mid-level
moisture will continue to advect across northern Mexico and the
Southwest through tonight. Modest heating and destabilization should
support a couple of stronger storms across NV, northwest AZ and
western UT. On the fringes of strong southwesterly flow aloft,
transient storm organization is possible with the strongest cells
capable of damaging gusts. Otherwise, minor edits were made to the
thunder line. See the previous discussion below.

..Lyons.. 10/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025/

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin...
Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the
West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward
the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present
across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this
moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization
should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of
residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into
southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing
mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may
support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of
transient supercells.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110100
SWODY1
SPC AC 110058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will linger across portions of the western
U.S. and the southern Florida Peninsula.

...01z Update...

Upper low off the Oregon Coast will advance inland later tonight.
This will maintain favorably moist trajectories across the lower CO
River Valley into the Great Basin. Seasonally high PW values are
noted across this region which has stunted lapse rates, but an axis
of modest instability continues from southeast CA-southern
NV-western UT. This corridor remains modestly sheared through 6km,
but storms have struggled to produce severe, partly due to somewhat
poor lapse rates. Even so, this corridor should remain convectively
active tonight and a brief wind gust can not be ruled out with the
most robust updrafts.

Across south Florida, isolated-scattered thunderstorms will
concentrate near the southern tip of the peninsula in conjunction
with a northward-drifting upper trough. However, the majority of
lightning will likely remain just offshore.

..Darrow.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110551
SWODY1
SPC AC 110549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
evening across the eastern Great Basin and the Colorado Plateau. A
brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over the Outer Banks of
North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Great Basin Region...

Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a notable upper low off the
OR Coast shifting east in line with latest model guidance.
Associated upper trough will advance inland by sunrise and into the
northern inter mountain/Great Basin by 12/00z as stronger midlevel
flow rotates through the base of the trough into UT. During the
latter half of the period an intensifying 500mb jet will eject
across northwest CO into southern WY as the trough becomes negative
tilted.

PW values are seasonally high across northern Mexico into the CO
Plateau as a dominant downstream upper ridge maintains favorable
deep layer south-southwesterly trajectories across this portion of
the U.S. While profiles are quite moist across this region, lapse
rates are necessarily weak and this will limit buoyancy ahead of the
trough. Even so, a strongly forced frontal zone will surge across
the interior west to a position along the ID/WY border, arcing
southwest across central UT into southern NV by late afternoon.
Scattered convection should easily develop ahead of the upper
trough, and a few robust updrafts could attain weak supercell
characteristics, the strongest of which may generate some hail/wind.


Southern influence of stronger midlevel flow will extend into
central AZ by peak heating. While temperatures are not forecast to
be that warm, favorably upslope flow into the Mogollon Rim may
encourage a few robust updrafts at this lower latitude. Strong
deep-layer shear suggests the most robust updrafts could exhibit
rotation. Have extended MRGL Risk into this region to account for a
few supercells. Isolated damaging winds are the primary concern
across AZ.

...NC Outer Banks...

Slow-moving upper trough over the FL Peninsula will encourage a
surface low to deepen off the Carolina Coast during the latter half
of the period. This feature may approach the southern NC Coast by
12/12z which will prove favorable for lower 70s surface dew points
to advect inland as easterly low-level flow strengthens after 06z.
While lapse rates will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is
expected with 70s dew points - more than adequate for lightning
discharge with deeper updrafts. Forecast shear profiles suggest at
least a low risk for a brief tornado and gusty winds with any
supercells that form in this environment.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111241
SWODY1
SPC AC 111240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts may occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A large-scale upper trough over the western states this morning will
advance inland today across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. At
the surface, a cold front will also develop eastward across these
areas through the period, while becoming less well defined into the
Southwest. A broad fetch of tropical moisture emanating from the
eastern Pacific will continue to stream northward ahead of the upper
trough, with rich low/mid-level moisture expected across parts of
the Southwest and southern Great Basin. Ongoing cloudiness and
precipitation across eastern UT/western CO into AZ will hinder
daytime heating to some extent. Greater instability should develop
on the periphery of the morning precipitation, namely across parts
of western/central UT and central/southern AZ. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (locally greater across UT) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. The
only appreciable change to the Marginal Risk with this update was to
expand it southward into more of central/southern AZ where somewhat
greater heating/instability is forecast to occur/develop later
today.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A slow-moving upper trough/low over the Southeast will encourage a
surface low to deepen off the coast of the Carolinas during the
latter half of the period. This feature may approach the NC Coast
early Sunday morning, which will prove favorable for upper 60s to
low 70s surface dewpoints to advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. Ample forecast
low-level and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and
gusty winds with any supercell that can form in this environment and
move inland across the Outer Banks/coastal NC.

...Northern High Plains...
Strong ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough will overspread
the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon and
evening. This should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms
initially developing over the higher terrain to move northeastward
across parts of southern/eastern MT. Low-level moisture should
remain fairly limited across this area, and lapse rates aloft are
forecast to be modest. This should hinder the degree of instability
which can develop. Still, enhanced mid-level flow may still support
some threat for strong/gusty winds with any convection that
persists. The overall severe threat appears too isolated to include
low wind probabilities at this time, although trends will be
monitored.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111631
SWODY1
SPC AC 111630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A prominent trough centered over the Pacific Northwest and northern
California early today will shift eastward over the Great Basin and
northern Intermountain region through tonight. This will be
accompanied by considerable height falls/forcing for ascent and
strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow and an
eastward-advancing cold front. Ahead of this system, a broad fetch
of tropical moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific will
continue to stream northward, with seasonally rich low/mid-level
moisture expected across parts of the Southwest and southern Great
Basin.

As early day cloudiness quickly shifts eastward and abates, stronger
daytime heating is expected, namely across parts of western/central
Utah and central/southern Arizona. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (maximized across Utah) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A surface low and warm front will approach late tonight/early
Sunday, allowing for upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints to
approach and potentially advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. While inland
warm sector development remains uncertain, ample forecast low-level
and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and gusty winds
with any supercell that can form in this environment across the
Outer Banks/coastal North Carolina.

...East-central Montana...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon/early evening across the region, but it still seems that
the potential for severe storms will be limited by meager
moisture/buoyancy.

..Guyer/Moore.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111955
SWODY1
SPC AC 111954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. Daytime
heating is underway after morning cloud cover with cu development
evident across the high terrain in northern Arizona and much of
Utah. Convection is likely to increase in coverage and intensity
this afternoon with approaching large scale ascent. The marginally
unstable air mass and strong deep layer shear should support a few
stronger storms capable of a few instances of hail and gusty winds.

The Marginal risk continues across coastal North Carolina/Outer
Banks in anticipation of the surface low/warm front approaching
later this evening. Guidance continues to indicate a few rotating
storms may approach the coast by late evening/early morning with
potential for a tornado or gusty winds.

..Thornton.. 10/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025/

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A prominent trough centered over the Pacific Northwest and northern
California early today will shift eastward over the Great Basin and
northern Intermountain region through tonight. This will be
accompanied by considerable height falls/forcing for ascent and
strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow and an
eastward-advancing cold front. Ahead of this system, a broad fetch
of tropical moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific will
continue to stream northward, with seasonally rich low/mid-level
moisture expected across parts of the Southwest and southern Great
Basin.

As early day cloudiness quickly shifts eastward and abates, stronger
daytime heating is expected, namely across parts of western/central
Utah and central/southern Arizona. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (maximized across Utah) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A surface low and warm front will approach late tonight/early
Sunday, allowing for upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints to
approach and potentially advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. While inland
warm sector development remains uncertain, ample forecast low-level
and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and gusty winds
with any supercell that can form in this environment across the
Outer Banks/coastal North Carolina.

...East-central Montana...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon/early evening across the region, but it still seems that
the potential for severe storms will be limited by meager
moisture/buoyancy.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120042
SWODY1
SPC AC 120041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTER GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST...AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief tornado and
occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the Outer Banks
of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

...01z Update...

Strong progressive upper trough is advancing steadily across the
northern Intermountain region and Great Basin early this evening.
Strong midlevel height falls and high-level diffluent flow continue
to favor scattered convection along the frontal zone as it shifts
east this evening. 00z sounding from SLC exhibited relatively steep
lapse rates through 5km with MLCAPE around 700 J/kg. Nocturnal
cooling should weaken boundary-layer lapse rates over the next few
hours which should lead to overall weakening of ongoing activity.
Farther south across southeast AZ, fairly high PW values are noted
along the U.S. side of the international border with 1.66 PW
observed at TUS. Deep-layer flow is also modestly strong which will
continue to support at least isolated severe within an air mass
characterized by MLCAPE around 1100 J/kg. This activity should
spread toward southwest NM where cooler temperatures and weaker
buoyancy will lead to weaker updrafts.

Boundary layer moisture is gradually increasing along the Outer
Banks of NC early this evening where latest observational data
suggests lower 70s are noted. As moisture/instability advance inland
the prospect for deeper updrafts/lightning will increase, especially
after midnight. Some risk for severe gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado can be expected.

..Darrow.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120524
SWODY1
SPC AC 120522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm risk appears negligible today.

...Southwestern U.S...

Large-scale upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored over
northeast Mexico into TX through the day1 period as a strong upper
low digs south along the Pacific Northwest Coast. This flow regime
will ensure modest-strong southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across much of the western U.S. Latest model guidance continues to
suggest a favorably moist trajectory across northwest Mexico into
AZ. Seasonally high PW air mass will hold near the international
border, but forecast soundings also suggest lapse rates should
remain poor - though sufficient for at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by
afternoon. With minimal CINH, convective temperatures will easily be
breached and isolated-scattered thunderstorms should readily
develop. While a few storms may exhibit some weak rotation at times,
current thinking is this environment is not particularly conducive
for more than sub-marginal wind gusts with the most robust
convection.

...Elsewhere...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the upper MS Valley in
advance of a strong short-wave trough, and along/near the Atlantic
Coast in association with a cyclone that is lifting north, just
offshore. Poor instability across these regions do not support
severe thunderstorms.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121201
SWODY1
SPC AC 121200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds the main threats.

...Southern/Central Arizona...
A shortwave trough will continue ejecting northeastward across the
northern Plains today, as large-scale upper troughing persists over
much of the western CONUS. A reservoir of greater low-level moisture
will remain confined to parts of southern/central AZ, where mid 60s
to lower 70s surface dewpoints are present across lower elevations.
Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain fairly
modest, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop this afternoon
with filtered daytime heating. Weak low-level winds will strengthen
with height at mid/upper-levels, supporting around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. While large-scale ascent is forecast to remain
fairly nebulous, most guidance still suggests scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across this region and
spread generally east-northeastward through the early evening. With
favorable shear in place for some updraft organization, some of
these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for marginally
severe hail and/or gusty winds.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121624
SWODY1
SPC AC 121623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds possible.

...Southern/Central Arizona...
The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead
trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies
toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s
to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers
and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may
limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent,
but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent
modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong
mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with
some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this
afternoon and evening.

..Guyer/Moore.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121947
SWODY1
SPC AC 121946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds possible.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Latest GOES visible imagery and surface observations show an outflow
boundary - emanating from decaying convection over central AZ -
drifting southward into south-central AZ where temperatures continue
to warm into the 80s with MLCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg.
Although forcing for ascent across the region remains fairly
nebulous, additional thunderstorm development along this boundary
remains plausible through the evening hours. Regional VWPs continue
to sample 35-45 knot winds between 5-6 km AGL, which may support
some degree of storm organization/longevity and a localized severe
hail/wind threat.

..Moore.. 10/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/

...Southern/Central Arizona...
The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead
trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies
toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s
to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers
and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may
limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent,
but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent
modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong
mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with
some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this
afternoon and evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130031
SWODY1
SPC AC 130030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Onset of nocturnal cooling will lead to a stabilizing boundary layer
across most of the CONUS over the next few hours. Latest lightning
data supports this with a decrease in thunderstorm activity as
buoyancy weakens. Modest instability lingers across the lower
deserts of the Southwest where roughly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted
along the international border of southwest AZ, but meager
instability is noted elsewhere. Even so, thunderstorms are weakening
across southern AZ, and 00z sounding from TUS was not particularly
impressive with only 6 C/km midlevel lapse rates. This yielded
around 600 J/kg MLCAPE, and further weakening is expected over the
next few hours. While gusty winds may accompany the most robust
convection early this evening, severe threat appears too low to
warrant probabilities overnight.

..Darrow.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130519
SWODY1
SPC AC 130518

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the
Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos this
afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible
later tonight along the south-central portion of coastal California.

...Southwestern U.S...

Strong upper low is currently located along the WA Coast, shifting
south in line with latest model guidance. This feature will continue
to dig south as the primary midlevel speed max has yet to round the
base of the trough. Left-exit region of the jet max will approach
the central CA Coast after 14/06z which should encourage low-topped
convection to move onshore after midnight. This activity could be
locally strong with some gust potential as scattered convection
advances inland in association with a pronounced cold front.
Forecast soundings yield little more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE so any
hail that forms with this activity should remain below severe
levels.

Downstream, deep south-southwesterly tropical feed across northwest
Mexico into the southern Rockies will continue. Considerable amount
of clouds and scattered precipitation should limit lapse rates and
instability across this region. Even so, strong 0-6km shear does
favor organized updrafts, especially during the afternoon/early
evening when air mass will be most unstable. A low risk for
hail/wind can be expected with the most robust convection, but
widespread severe is not anticipated due to aforementioned poor
lapse rates/modest buoyancy.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131237
SWODY1
SPC AC 131236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur from the Four
Corners region and eastern Arizona to far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. Locally damaging winds appear possible mainly tonight
along parts of south-central coastal California.

...Coastal California...
An upper trough/low over the coastal Pacific Northwest this morning
will dig southward along the CA Coast through tonight. An attendant
strong mid-level jet will round the base of this trough and
overspread parts of coastal south-central CA this evening into early
Tuesday morning. Strong forcing for ascent with this jet should
support low-topped convection along/ahead of a surface cold front.
Even though low-level moisture and related instability are expected
to remain quite limited with poor lapse rates present, strong flow
aloft may still support gusty to locally severe/damaging winds as
convection spreads east-southeastward along parts of the CA Coast
late this evening and overnight.

...Southwest into Far West Texas...
Between the upper trough/low over the West Coast and upper ridging
centered over much of the Plains, a fetch of low/mid-level moisture
with tropical origins will persist today over parts of the
Southwest. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, but diurnal
heating should gradually destabilize the airmass this afternoon,
with scattered to numerous convection forecast to once again
initially develop over the higher terrain of AZ into the Four
Corners region. Strong deep-layer shear may support some updraft
organization, with isolated hail and gusty winds possible with the
more robust cores. A somewhat separate corridor of strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms may develop northeastward late this
afternoon and evening off the higher terrain of north-central Mexico
into portions of far west TX.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131546
SWODY1
SPC AC 131545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
COASTAL CALIFORNIA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur this afternoon
and evening over parts of central and southeastern Arizona. Locally
damaging winds appear possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...AZ...
An upper low currently centered along the OR coast will dig
southward through the forecast period. This will maintain deep
southwesterly flow throughout the Southwest US and Great Basin.
Considerable mid-level moisture and marginal CAPE values will
promote a risk of scattered thunderstorms across these areas through
tonight. While an isolated strong storm will be possible over a
broad region, parts of the central and southeast AZ appear to have
the best combination of daytime heating, orographic ascent, and
vertical shear to promote a risk of a few strong/severe storms
capable of hail and gusty winds.

...Coastal CA...
A strong mid-level jet max will rotate inland tonight into parts of south-central coastal CA, along with an associated surface cold
front. Forecast soundings along/ahead of the front show sufficient
CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of a few low-topped but strong
storms capable of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. The
main concerns will be after midnight.

..Hart/Moore.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131947
SWODY1
SPC AC 131945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ...AND LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTAL CA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur this afternoon
and evening over parts of central and southeastern Arizona. Locally
damaging winds appear possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...20Z Update...

...AZ...
Southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout the
afternoon/evening and overnight. This flow, coupled with modest
mid-level moisture and buoyancy will promote a continued threat for
isolated strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be capable of hail
and/or gusty winds. MCD #2144 was recently issued to address this
isolated severe potential.

...Coastal Central/Southern CA...
The deep upper low currently just off the northern CA coast will
continue to progress southward tonight, ending the period just off
the central CA coast. A strong mid-level jet max will rotate around
this low as it progresses southward, spreading eastward into
southern CA late tonight/early tomorrow. A strong frontal band is
anticipated along the leading edge of the ascent associated with
this speed max. Current guidance places this band near the coast
around 05Z/06Z before then moving inland over the next few hours.
Thermodynamic profiles indicate predominantly shallow convection
within and ahead of this frontal band, although a few lightning
flash are possible (most likely within the frontal band itself).
Additionally, the combination of modest buoyancy and strong
deep-layer vertical shear could result in rotation within any more
persistent updrafts, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado. Even so, the modest and shallow buoyancy
should keep updrafts transient, and any rotation within those
updrafts short lived, keeping the overall severe potential low.

..Mosier.. 10/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025/

...AZ...
An upper low currently centered along the OR coast will dig
southward through the forecast period. This will maintain deep
southwesterly flow throughout the Southwest US and Great Basin.
Considerable mid-level moisture and marginal CAPE values will
promote a risk of scattered thunderstorms across these areas through
tonight. While an isolated strong storm will be possible over a
broad region, parts of the central and southeast AZ appear to have
the best combination of daytime heating, orographic ascent, and
vertical shear to promote a risk of a few strong/severe storms
capable of hail and gusty winds.

...Coastal CA...
A strong mid-level jet max will rotate inland tonight into parts of south-central coastal CA, along with an associated surface cold
front. Forecast soundings along/ahead of the front show sufficient
CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of a few low-topped but strong
storms capable of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. The
main concerns will be after midnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140031
SWODY1
SPC AC 140030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds are possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...01z Update...

Strong upper low is currently located off the northern CA Coast,
just southwest of EKA. This feature is moving south as a 100+kt
500mb jet digs along the back side of this trough. Later tonight,
left exit region of the jet max will approach the southern CA Coast
and this should encourage low-topped convection along the cold
front. Forecast soundings suggest only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE can
be expected in advance of the front as lapse rates will only be on
the order of 6 C/km. Strong 0-6km shear favors the potential for
updraft organization, thus low severe probabilities for wind, and
perhaps a brief weak tornado will continue overnight.

..Darrow.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140533
SWODY1
SPC AC 140531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail are
possible across parts of the southern Rockies from late afternoon
into the evening. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be
possible this morning through midday along the southern California
coast.

...Southern CA and the Southern Rockies...

Upper low continues digging south just off the CA coast, in line
with latest model guidance. As midlevel speed max rounds the base of
the trough early in the period the upper low will advance inland,
then shift into the Great Basin by 15/12z. Weak frontal convection
has developed ahead of this feature along the cold front. While most
updrafts are too shallow to generate lightning, some risk for
isolated thunderstorms is expected as the front surges inland at the
start of the period. Left-exit region of the speed max should aid
this activity, and some risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
weak tornado can be expected with this frontal convection.
Convective threat will decrease quickly across the lower CO River
Valley.

Downstream, upper anticyclone is stubbornly holding across the
southern Plains into northeast Mexico. This feature will ensure
favorable trajectories for maintaining seasonally high PW values
across northern Mexico into the southern Rockies. While this higher
moisture content necessitates weaker lapse rates across this region,
CINH will remain low and even modest boundary-layer heating will
lead to adequate instability for robust updrafts. Forecast soundings
exhibit 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon as surface
temperatures warm through the mid 70s to near 80F. Additionally,
deep-layer shear should support the potential for organized
updrafts, and a few supercells will likely evolve. At this time will
maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with this activity, but later
outlooks could reflect higher probabilities if confidence increases
regarding the coverage/intensity of convection.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141232
SWODY1
SPC AC 141230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. An isolated threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado will gradually diminish through midday for portions of
coastal southern California.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...
Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across the
Southwest, as upper ridging is maintained over the southern
Plains/lower MS Valley and as an upper trough/low progresses inland
over CA and the Great Basin. A fetch of low/mid-level moisture will
continue streaming northward from northern Mexico into parts of the
Southwest and southern Rockies through the period. Large-scale
forcing will remain nebulous across these areas, but orographic lift
and filtered daytime heating should encourage isolated to scattered
convective development across parts of NM this afternoon. With
moderate to strong deep-layer shear and weak instability expected,
the stronger updrafts may acquire some organization and marginal
supercell characteristics. Isolated hail and gusty winds appear
possible with this activity as it spreads generally northeastward
through the early evening before weakening.

...Coastal Southern California...
A low-topped line of convective showers will continue to advance east-southeastward this morning across parts of coastal southern CA
as an upper trough/low advances inland over central CA. Strong
mid-level westerly flow will accompany this convective line, and
locally gusty winds remain possible for a few more hours this
morning. However, meager instability will likely continue to hinder
the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141601
SWODY1
SPC AC 141600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. An isolated threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado will gradually diminish through early afternoon for portions
of coastal southern California.

...Coastal Southern California...

Shallow/low-topped convective showers will continue to spread east
across the region through early afternoon. Instability will remain
scant, with generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE noted in SPC
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings. Most of the stronger gusts
reported in the past couple of hours have coincided with higher
elevation observation sites, and are likely driven by a belt of
40-50 kt southwest flow from 850-700 mb. Locally strong gusts may
persist another couple of hours before weakening by midday/early
afternoon local time.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...

A belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will continue to
stream across the southern Rockies today, sandwiched between an
upper ridge to the east and an upper trough over the West. Modest
boundary layer moisture will continue to spread northward across the
region, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s to low 60s F and PW
values over 1 inch. This will be sufficient for 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE values, despite marginal midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7
C/km). Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear
magnitudes greater then 35-40 kt suggest convection could become
strong at times, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics.
Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail approaching 1 inch
diameter will be possible with the strongest cells. A greater severe
risk should remain tempered by the modest thermodynamic environment.

..Leitman/Halbert.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141948
SWODY1
SPC AC 141947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening.

...20z Update...
The primary adjustment for this update was the removal of risk
probabilities across coastal southern CA. Latest surface
observations continue to sample winds associated with a shallow
convective frontal band of a similar magnitude to regional gradient
winds (generally gusting between 35-45 mph). Warming cloud-top
temperatures and a diminishing inland warm sector (where observed
temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than depicted by
recent guidance) suggest any lingering severe potential will likely
diminish further through the afternoon. That said, a waterspout or
two remains possible in the near-term (next 1-2 hours) as the band
approaches the coast due to strong wind shear through the lowest few kilometers. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track; see
the previous discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 10/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025/

...Coastal Southern California...

Shallow/low-topped convective showers will continue to spread east
across the region through early afternoon. Instability will remain
scant, with generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE noted in SPC
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings. Most of the stronger gusts
reported in the past couple of hours have coincided with higher
elevation observation sites, and are likely driven by a belt of
40-50 kt southwest flow from 850-700 mb. Locally strong gusts may
persist another couple of hours before weakening by midday/early
afternoon local time.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...

A belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will continue to
stream across the southern Rockies today, sandwiched between an
upper ridge to the east and an upper trough over the West. Modest
boundary layer moisture will continue to spread northward across the
region, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s to low 60s F and PW
values over 1 inch. This will be sufficient for 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE values, despite marginal midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7
C/km). Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear
magnitudes greater then 35-40 kt suggest convection could become
strong at times, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics.
Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail approaching 1 inch
diameter will be possible with the strongest cells. A greater severe
risk should remain tempered by the modest thermodynamic environment.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150059
SWODY1
SPC AC 150058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this evening.

...Discussion...
The 00Z ABQ RAOB showed a moderately favorable severe environment
with around 700 J/kg MLCAPE and nearly 60 knots of effective shear.
Forcing is somewhat nebulous and has resulted in isolated convection
up to this point (limited to northern New Mexico around 01Z). While
the boundary layer will continue to cool and stabilize, some
mid-level cooling/moistening may result in increasing elevated
instability by 04-05Z. Given the strong wind profile, any storms
which develop could pose some isolated hail/wind threat for a few
hours late this evening into the early overnight hours.

..Bentley.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150548
SWODY1
SPC AC 150546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible today across parts of the
southern/central Rockies into the High Plains this evening into the
overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few marginally
severe wind gusts may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A large western CONUS trough, seen on water vapor imagery across
southern California early this morning, will shift slowly east
through the period. A mid-level jet streak on the southern periphery
of this trough will shift east across the central Rockies. This will
result in strong lee troughing across eastern Colorado this evening
and into tonight. As this lee cyclone deepens, a warm front will
sharpen across the central Plains.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
As the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado today, low-level
flow will strengthen. As this occurs, low-level southerly flow will
result in moistening conditions across New Mexico and into Colorado,
southeast Wyoming, and the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South
Dakota. 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast across much of this
region (perhaps somewhat delayed across northern New Mexico where
morning cloudcover may be present. While instability will be mostly
weak, strong effective shear (45 to 50 knots per RAP forecast
soundings) will support storm organization (including the potential
for supercells) with any stronger updrafts which develop. Moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates and the aforementioned thermodynamic and
kinematic factors will support isolated large hail and severe wind
gusts. Forecast hodographs show modest low-level turning across
portions of northern New Mexico which may support an isolated
tornado threat.

..Bentley/Weinman.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151238
SWODY1
SPC AC 151236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
A pronounced upper trough/low over the Sierras and western Great
Basin will advance eastward towards the Rockies through the period.
An attendant 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will also shift
from the Southwest/Four Corners to the southern/central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains today. As large-scale ascent associated with
these features overspreads this region, a surface lee cyclone is
forecast to deepen over north-central/northeast CO by this evening.
Low-level moisture through the Rio Grande Valley in NM and central
High Plains is expected to remain fairly limited, with surface
dewpoints generally in the 50s. Still, daytime heating and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates (mainly over the central High
Plains) should support the development of weak instability this
afternoon.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop over the
higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies by early afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached. This activity should move
generally northeastward across the adjacent High Plains through the
remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the evening.
Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support isolated
supercells with a threat for mainly large hail. Occasional severe
winds may also occur. With time this evening, these thunderstorms
will move northward and cross a front forecast to be draped across
southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Give sufficient MUCAPE forecast
north of the front, a strengthening low-level jet this evening
across the central Plains may support a continued threat for
isolated severe hail as this convection becomes elevated into parts
of eastern WY/western SD. Overall, confidence in a more concentrated
area of severe hail potential remains too low for increased
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151605
SWODY1
SPC AC 151603

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...

An upper low over the Great Basin within a larger-scale western
trough will pivot eastward today and tonight to the central/southern
Rockies. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt midlevel jet streak will
overspread the region while a lee surface low develops in the
vicinity of northeast CO/southeast WY. Meanwhile, a warm front
oriented west to east across NE will lift northward into SD during
the evening/overnight while surface troughing extends southward from
the lee low into central/eastern NM.

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest despite increasing
southerly low-level flow, with dewpoints generally in the 50s F.
Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak
destabilization, with MLCAPE values maxing out around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated convection will gradually develop/increase over the
higher terrain of NM/CO by early afternoon. Additional, isolated
cells are likely further east over the adjacent High Plains by
mid/late afternoon closer to the surface low over eastern CO.
Vertically veering wind profiles will support organized cells, with
a supercell or two possible. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk with these storms, but locally gusty winds also may occur.

Convection will continue to spread northeast through the evening,
eventually moving north of the warm front across parts of eastern WY
and the NE Panhandle and into western SD. Aided by sufficient MUCAPE
and a healthy southerly low-level jet, this elevated activity may
continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail into the
evening/nighttime hours.

..Leitman/Moore.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 152000
SWODY1
SPC AC 151958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...20Z Update...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. Overall, weak thermodynamics
will likely limit the coverage of more intense storms. Marginally
greater surface moisture is noted near the Palmer Divide. This could
be a local corridor where a stronger, marginal supercell could
evolve later this afternoon. See the previous discussion for
additional information.

..Wendt.. 10/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025/

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...

An upper low over the Great Basin within a larger-scale western
trough will pivot eastward today and tonight to the central/southern
Rockies. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt midlevel jet streak will
overspread the region while a lee surface low develops in the
vicinity of northeast CO/southeast WY. Meanwhile, a warm front
oriented west to east across NE will lift northward into SD during
the evening/overnight while surface troughing extends southward from
the lee low into central/eastern NM.

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest despite increasing
southerly low-level flow, with dewpoints generally in the 50s F.
Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak
destabilization, with MLCAPE values maxing out around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated convection will gradually develop/increase over the
higher terrain of NM/CO by early afternoon. Additional, isolated
cells are likely further east over the adjacent High Plains by
mid/late afternoon closer to the surface low over eastern CO.
Vertically veering wind profiles will support organized cells, with
a supercell or two possible. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk with these storms, but locally gusty winds also may occur.

Convection will continue to spread northeast through the evening,
eventually moving north of the warm front across parts of eastern WY
and the NE Panhandle and into western SD. Aided by sufficient MUCAPE
and a healthy southerly low-level jet, this elevated activity may
continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail into the
evening/nighttime hours.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160043
SWODY1
SPC AC 160042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...01Z Update...

...Southern/Central Rockies into the central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the region, downstream of
a deep upper low moving across the Great Basin. Despite the loss of
daytime heating and much of the surface-based buoyancy,
thunderstorms will likely persist throughout the evening and tonight
amid cool mid-level temperatures and related steep mid-level lapse
rates. Moderate vertical shear will persist throughout the evening
and overnight as well, with the resulting combination of buoyancy
and shear sufficient for a few supercells and an isolated severe
risk.

Additional information about this area is available in MCD #2148.

..Mosier.. 10/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160540
SWODY1
SPC AC 160539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broad upper troughing over the western CONUS will move gradually
eastward today as an embedded upper low progresses northeastward
from eastern UT through the western Dakotas. Moderate to strong
mid-level flow will extend through the eastern periphery of this
low, spreading from southern/central Rockies northeastward through
the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.

Primary surface low associated with this system will also track
northeastward, beginning the period over the western NE/SD border
vicinity and likely ending the period occluded over the
north-central ND/south-central MB vicinity. This progression will
push a cold front eastward across the Dakotas and western NE, and
southeastward across northeast/east-central CO, and far northwest
KS.

The cold front is forecast to move through western NE, northeast CO,
and far northwest KS around peak heating. Low-level moisture will be
modest (i.e. dewpoints generally in the low 50s), but strong
boundary-layer mixing will result in steep low-level lapse rates and temperatures in upper 70s/low 80s. These conditions should be
sufficient for modest buoyancy, despite the limited low-level
moisture. Thunderstorms are expected near the front as a combination
of large-scale forcing for ascent and lift along the front interact
with the modest buoyancy.

Moderate to strong (i.e. 50 to 60 kt) effective bulk shear is
expected to be in place, supporting the potential for some more
organized storms. Hail is the primary severe risk, but a few strong
gusts are possible as well. Southerly to perhaps even southeasterly
surface winds will result in some low-level curvature near the front
in northeast CO, northwest KS, and southwest NE, to east/northeast
of a secondary surface low over eastern CO. A low-probability
tornado threat will result, but front-parallel shear suggests a
mostly linear mode as well as tendency for undercutting by the cold
front. As such, any tornado threat should remain low.

Farther north, elevated instability will be maintained across the
northern Plains due to a broad area of 30-50 kt south/southwesterly
low-level jet. Colder temperatures aloft over the northern High
Plains could support small hail at times as activity develops ahead
of the approaching upper low.

..Mosier/Weinman.. 10/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161242
SWODY1
SPC AC 161240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of the central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across the central
High Plains with this update. Within broad upper-level troughing
encompassing much of the western CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough
will eject northeastward today from the central Rockies to the
northern Plains. The primary surface low associated with this
feature will likewise develop northward across the Dakotas through
the day, eventually reaching the ND/MB border late tonight. A cold
front will continue advancing east-southeastward over the
northern/central Plains, with surface lee troughing extending
southward from this front over the central High Plains of eastern
CO/western KS and vicinity. Secondary surface low development is
also forecast across this area. Low-level moisture ahead of the lee
trough/cold front will likely remain rather limited. But, generally
50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow corridor by late afternoon/early evening across parts of western/central NE into
eastern CO/western KS along/near the front.

Daytime heating of this airmass should support weak destabilization
and eventual thunderstorm development as MLCIN gradually erodes. A
modest uptick in a southerly low-level jet may also aid thunderstorm development through the evening. Any convection which forms along
the front may become supercellular given around 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear forecast. But, this activity should be undercut
fairly quickly by the cold front and become elevated. Isolated large
hail appears to be the main threat, but an occasional severe gust
may also occur with any thunderstorms that can remain surface based.
A brief window may also exist early this evening for a tornado as
low-level shear increases, before convection becomes mainly
elevated.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161602
SWODY1
SPC AC 161601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and
southwest Nebraska.

...Central High Plains...
A large upper trough/low is centered over the Great Basin today,
with an upper ridge over the lower MS Valley. This pattern will
maintain strong and deep southwesterly flow across the central High
Plains, along with a corridor of sufficient low/mid level moisture
for scattered thunderstorms. Convection currently ongoing in
western KS/NE will likely persist through the day and shift
eastward, with an axis of strong heating developing from eastern CO
into southwest NE. New thunderstorm development is likely in this
thermal axis around sunset as the primary cold front approaches from
the northwest. Forecast soundings suggest a 2-3 hour period
favorable for a few intense thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail.

..Hart/Kerr.. 10/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161947
SWODY1
SPC AC 161945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and
southwest Nebraska.

...20Z Update...
Only minor updates were made to the general thunderstorm forecast.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track. See the
previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 10/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025/

...Central High Plains...
A large upper trough/low is centered over the Great Basin today,
with an upper ridge over the lower MS Valley. This pattern will
maintain strong and deep southwesterly flow across the central High
Plains, along with a corridor of sufficient low/mid level moisture
for scattered thunderstorms. Convection currently ongoing in
western KS/NE will likely persist through the day and shift
eastward, with an axis of strong heating developing from eastern CO
into southwest NE. New thunderstorm development is likely in this
thermal axis around sunset as the primary cold front approaches from
the northwest. Forecast soundings suggest a 2-3 hour period
favorable for a few intense thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170044
SWODY1
SPC AC 170042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across
parts of the central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
A conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment remains in
place this evening across a narrow zone from far east-central CO
into northwest KS and southwest NE, generally to the east-northeast
of a surface low across eastern CO, and along/south of a
southward-sagging cold front. Within this zone, MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt is supporting supercell
potential, though the longevity of the remaining threat will be
limited by nocturnally increasing MLCINH. The threat for isolated
severe hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado may persist until
around 02-03 UTC. See MCD 2149 for more information.

..Dean.. 10/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170522
SWODY1
SPC AC 170520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts
will be possible this evening through the overnight period from the
southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the ND/MB border will move northeastward through the day, as a trailing positive-tilt trough
and attendant weak cold front move eastward across the Upper Midwest
into the central/southern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave
near the base of this trough is forecast to amplify by late in the
period across the southern Rockies. Farther northwest, an upstream
shortwave trough and vigorous mid/upper-level jet will dig
southeastward across the northern Rockies late tonight.

...Parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate destabilization will be possible by late
afternoon from parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower
MO Valley, along/ahead of the weak surface trough/front. Generally
weak midlevel lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will tend to
limit diurnal storm potential, but isolated strong-storm development
cannot be ruled out by early evening. An increase in primarily
elevated convection is expected from mid/late evening onward, in
response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, and eventual
approach of the southern Rockies shortwave trough.

Increasing deep-layer flow/shear and some steepening of midlevel
lapse rates late in the period will support potential for at least
transient storm organization tonight, though guidance continues to
vary regarding the coverage and intensity of overnight elevated
convection. Isolated large hail and localized strong/damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms into early Saturday
morning.

..Dean/Thornton.. 10/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171253
SWODY1
SPC AC 171251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the ND/MB border will move northeastward through the day, as a trailing positive-tilt trough
and attendant weak cold front move eastward across the Upper Midwest
into the central/southern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave
trough near the base of the larger-scale trough is forecast to
amplify as it moves across the Desert Southwest and into the
southern High Plains.

...Parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate destabilization will be possible by late
afternoon from parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower
MO Valley, along/ahead of the weak surface trough/front. Generally
weak midlevel lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will tend to
limit storm coverage/intensity through the early evening. An
increase in primarily elevated convection is expected from mid/late
evening onward in association with a strengthening low-level jet.

Increasing deep-layer flow/shear and some steepening of midlevel
lapse rates late tonight will support increasing potential for some
updraft organization. The primary hazards with the stronger storms
will be an isolated risk for large hail and localized severe gusts.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171554
SWODY1
SPC AC 171552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND
WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper trough over the western states will maintain deep
southwesterly flow across the Plains states. A surface cold front
currently extending from eastern NE into the TX Panhandle will sag southeastward into a somewhat moist and unstable air mass, providing
the focus for scattered thunderstorms. Convection now occurring in
southeast NE will expand eastward and southward this afternoon, with
storms building southwestward along the front into OK through the
evening. Thermodynamic parameters are relatively weak, with poor
lapse rates and marginal CAPE. However, the combination of frontal
forcing and favorable shear profiles may result in isolated strong
storms this evening capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Kerr.. 10/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171952
SWODY1
SPC AC 171950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for
additional details.

..Wendt.. 10/17/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025/

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper trough over the western states will maintain deep
southwesterly flow across the Plains states. A surface cold front
currently extending from eastern NE into the TX Panhandle will sag southeastward into a somewhat moist and unstable air mass, providing
the focus for scattered thunderstorms. Convection now occurring in
southeast NE will expand eastward and southward this afternoon, with
storms building southwestward along the front into OK through the
evening. Thermodynamic parameters are relatively weak, with poor
lapse rates and marginal CAPE. However, the combination of frontal
forcing and favorable shear profiles may result in isolated strong
storms this evening capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180058
SWODY1
SPC AC 180056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening into late tonight from the southern and
central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Central/southern Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) is in
place this evening from parts of the southern Plains northeastward
into the lower MO Valley and Upper Midwest, along/ahead of a weak,
slow-moving cold front. An increase in storm coverage is expected
this evening from eastern KS into northern MO and parts of the Upper
Midwest, as a mid/upper-level trough moves across the region and a
low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. Effective shear of 40+ kt
will support potential for organized convection, though storm
intensity will tend to be limited by generally weak midlevel lapse
rates. Isolated hail and localized damaging gusts will be possible
with the strongest storms, especially from eastern KS into
western/northern MO, where instability will be greater compared to
areas farther northeast.

Farther south, storm coverage is expected to increase late tonight
across parts of western/northern OK into southern KS, in response to
a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the southern
Rockies. Some cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates
will maintain moderate MUCAPE through the night, while effective
shear will remain sufficient for occasional storm organization. The
strongest storms late tonight may become capable of producing
isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 10/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180602
SWODY1
SPC AC 180600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight
across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail may
occur.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid/upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the central/northern Plains later today. In response to this system, a
shortwave trough initially over the southern High Plains will eject
quickly east-northeastward during the day toward the ArkLaTex. The
combination of these systems will eventually result in development
of a deep and progressive trough becoming established over the MS
Valley by early Sunday morning. As this occurs, a surface low will
develop along a cold front across the south-central Plains. This
surface low will deepen and move northeastward through the period,
eventually reaching Lower MI by 12Z Sunday morning.

...Eastern TX/OK into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley...
Convection will likely increase in coverage and intensity from
southern MO into eastern OK/TX from late morning onward, as the
ejecting shortwave trough approaches the region. Moderate buoyancy
and strengthening deep-layer shear will support organized convection
that will spread eastward through the afternoon. Initial supercell
development could pose a threat for a hail and locally damaging
wind, along with some tornado potential. Increasing ascent will tend
to favor eventual storm clustering and possible QLCS development
with time, resulting in a continued damaging-wind threat, along with
some embedded brief tornado potential.

Guidance generally depicts a local buoyancy minimum across eastern
AR into western TN by late afternoon, which could cause some
weakening as storms move into this area. However, a notable increase
in the low-level jet may support some reintensification of storms
during the evening near and east of the lower MS Valley. A continued
threat for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes may
persist overnight near and north of the central Gulf Coast vicinity.


...Parts of the Ohio Valley/Midwest...
Early-day convection across parts of the southern Great Lakes
vicinity could produce locally gusty winds, through weak instability
may tend to limit organized severe potential with the morning
storms. Additional storms may develop during the afternoon within a
favorably sheared environment, with a strongly forced line becoming
possible later this evening/overnight as the surface low deepens and
moves northeastward. The magnitude of the severe threat may be
limited by scant instability, but strong ascent and strong
deep-layer flow/shear will support some potential for damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Dean/Thornton.. 10/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181247
SWODY1
SPC AC 181246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon
into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes
and hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid/upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the central/northern Plains later today. Water-vapor imagery this
morning shows a potent shortwave trough over the southern High
Plains and this feature will quickly move toward the ArkLaTex by
early evening. The combination of these systems will eventually
result in development of a deep and progressive trough becoming
established over the MS Valley by early Sunday morning. Morning
surface analysis places a low over northern OK and frontal zone
extending northeast. The low will develop northeast during the
period and eventually reach Lower MI by early Sunday morning.

...Eastern TX/OK into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley...
Morning radar/satellite imagery shows the initial shower/storm
development over western MO/eastern KS into parts of west TX. This
activity will likely increase in coverage and intensity from
southern MO into eastern OK/TX through midday, as the ejecting
shortwave trough approaches the region. A plume of 60s deg F
surface dewpoints and some diurnal destabilization will lead to
moderate buoyancy by afternoon. As storms gradually develop,
strengthening deep-layer shear will support storm organization.
Some initial supercell development could pose a threat for hail with
some tornado/damaging wind potential also perhaps accompanying this
activity. Increasing ascent and upscale growth into convective
bands/lines will favor a continued risk for damaging gusts and
possibly some embedded brief tornado potential.

Prior forecast thinking of reduced buoyancy centered over eastern
AR/western TN may result in storms weakening as they move into this
area. However, a notable increase in the low-level jet may support
some reintensification of storms during the evening near and east of
the lower MS Valley towards evening and into tonight. A continued
threat for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes may
persist overnight near and north of the central Gulf Coast vicinity.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley/Midwest...
Latest model guidance generally shows scattered storms developing
later this afternoon coincident with diurnal destabilization.
Initial storm development over the MO/IL/western KY vicinity will
tend to grow upscale into a forced thunderstorm band later this evening/overnight as forcing for ascent increases and overspreads
the region from the west. The magnitude of the severe threat may be
limited by scant instability, but strong ascent and strong
deep-layer flow/shear will support some potential for damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181619
SWODY1
SPC AC 181617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon
into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes
and hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A southern stream shortwave trough will eject quickly
east-northeastward from TX/OK to AR/MO, prior to phasing with an
amplifying northern stream trough by tonight across the mid MS
Valley. Downstream from the phasing troughs, a deepening surface
cyclone will develop northeastward tonight from the mid MS Valley to
Lower MI, as a trailing cold front surges southeastward from the
Plains into the mid-lower MS Valley.

...TX/OK today into the MS/OH Valleys through early Sunday...
Regional 12z soundings revealed a plume of 7.5-8 C/km midlevel lapse
rates (FWD-OUN-LMN) atop low-level dewpoints in the 60s, which is
already contributing to moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg)
as of mid morning. As continued forcing for ascent with the lead
shortwave trough overspreads the moisture/buoyancy plume, ongoing
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the
afternoon from southern MO/IL to eastern OK/western AR and
north/northeast TX. Initial storms will be in the form of
clusters/short line segments with upscale growth into a more
extensive squall line expected by later this afternoon/evening.

Buoyancy will increase some in the moisture plume through the
afternoon with surface heating in cloud breaks, and deep-layer
vertical shear will increase with the approach of the ejecting
midlevel trough. Thus, the stronger embedded cells will have the
potential to produce large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter) along
with an increase in the threat for wind damage as convection becomes
more linear. The tornado threat is a bit more uncertain given the
early/messy start to convection this morning, and since low-level
shear will not be strong this afternoon in the warm sector as a
result of primary cyclogenesis not occurring until tonight from IL
into lower MI (north of the richer low-level moisture). Still, a
couple of tornadoes may occur with embedded circulations. There
will be the potential for more discrete supercells and a few
tornadoes ahead of the larger-scale line of storms from far east TX
into LA/southern AR and MS overnight where boundary-layer dewpoints
exceed 70 F and low-level shear increases.

Though buoyancy will be weak, rapidly strengthening wind fields
overnight and forcing for ascent along the synoptic cold front could
support a low-topped line of convection with the potential for wind
damage and possible a couple of embedded tornadoes from the OH
Valley into southeast Lower MI ~06-12z.

..Thompson/Supinie.. 10/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181951
SWODY1
SPC AC 181949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon
into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes
and hail may occur.

...20Z Update...
Given the progression of the shortwave trough in the southern
Plains, severe probabilities have been removed behind ongoing
convection from parts of northeast Texas into western Arkansas and
southwest Missouri. The 18Z soundings from Shreveport and Little
Rock show modest mid-level lapse rates and low-level shear. The wind
profile is expected to improve somewhat later this afternoon into
the early evening. Discrete showers and thunderstorms are steadily
increasing in intensity in the ArkLaTex region. As this activity
move north and east over the next several hours, it will pose a
locally higher tornado threat so long as storm mode remains
favorable. Additional forecast details can be found in the previous
forecast below. Other short-term details are in MCD 2152.

..Wendt.. 10/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025/

...Synopsis...
A southern stream shortwave trough will eject quickly
east-northeastward from TX/OK to AR/MO, prior to phasing with an
amplifying northern stream trough by tonight across the mid MS
Valley. Downstream from the phasing troughs, a deepening surface
cyclone will develop northeastward tonight from the mid MS Valley to
Lower MI, as a trailing cold front surges southeastward from the
Plains into the mid-lower MS Valley.

...TX/OK today into the MS/OH Valleys through early Sunday...
Regional 12z soundings revealed a plume of 7.5-8 C/km midlevel lapse
rates (FWD-OUN-LMN) atop low-level dewpoints in the 60s, which is
already contributing to moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg)
as of mid morning. As continued forcing for ascent with the lead
shortwave trough overspreads the moisture/buoyancy plume, ongoing
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the
afternoon from southern MO/IL to eastern OK/western AR and
north/northeast TX. Initial storms will be in the form of
clusters/short line segments with upscale growth into a more
extensive squall line expected by later this afternoon/evening.

Buoyancy will increase some in the moisture plume through the
afternoon with surface heating in cloud breaks, and deep-layer
vertical shear will increase with the approach of the ejecting
midlevel trough. Thus, the stronger embedded cells will have the
potential to produce large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter) along
with an increase in the threat for wind damage as convection becomes
more linear. The tornado threat is a bit more uncertain given the
early/messy start to convection this morning, and since low-level
shear will not be strong this afternoon in the warm sector as a
result of primary cyclogenesis not occurring until tonight from IL
into lower MI (north of the richer low-level moisture). Still, a
couple of tornadoes may occur with embedded circulations. There
will be the potential for more discrete supercells and a few
tornadoes ahead of the larger-scale line of storms from far east TX
into LA/southern AR and MS overnight where boundary-layer dewpoints
exceed 70 F and low-level shear increases.

Though buoyancy will be weak, rapidly strengthening wind fields
overnight and forcing for ascent along the synoptic cold front could
support a low-topped line of convection with the potential for wind
damage and possible a couple of embedded tornadoes from the OH
Valley into southeast Lower MI ~06-12z.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190102
SWODY1
SPC AC 190100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible this
evening into late tonight across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi
into parts of western Alabama. Some potential for locally damaging
wind and a couple brief tornadoes may also continue into parts of
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

...ArkLaMiss into parts of AL/TN and the FL Panhandle...
Widespread strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening
across the ArkLaMiss region, in advance of an ejecting
mid/upper-level shortwave trough that is approaching the lower/mid
MS Valley. Buoyancy will remain rather modest, but strengthening
deep-layer flow fields will continue to support organized convection
as storms move eastward across LA/MS into parts of TN/AL and the FL
Panhandle. Continued storm clustering and possible QLCS development
will support potential for scattered damaging winds this evening
into the overnight hours. Increasing low-level shear and
boundary-layer moisture will also result in some supercell and QLCS
tornado potential, especially from northern LA into MS, where the
richest boundary-layer moisture (with dewpoints near/above 70 F)
will reside.

...Ohio Valley vicinity...
As a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough begins to phase with
the shortwave approaching the MS Valley, a surface low is forecast
to deepen as it moves northeastward toward Lower MI, accompanied by
a substantial increase in low/midlevel flow fields. As this occurs,
some increase in convective organization will be possible as ongoing
convection moves northeastward across parts of the OH Valley into
Lower MI. Increasingly scant instability may tend to limit the
magnitude of the severe threat, but some potential for locally
damaging wind and a brief tornado may continue through the late
evening. There is also some potential for a band of low-topped
convection with gusty winds to develop along a surging cold front
prior to the end of the forecast period.

...Parts of central/eastern OK...
A few strong to severe storms have developed this evening across
parts of central/eastern OK along a southeastward-moving cold front.
Increasing CINH and decreasing instability with time will lead to an
eventual weakening trend, but very isolated hail and strong gusts
cannot be ruled out through around 02Z.

..Dean.. 10/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190602
SWODY1
SPC AC 190600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND ALSO NEAR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this morning from
south Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Localized wind damage will be possible later today from the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid Atlantic. Late tonight, localized
wind damage and possibly a brief tornado will be possible from the
northern Mid Atlantic into parts of southern New England.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt
as it moves eastward from the MS Valley into the Mid Atlantic and
Northeast. A surface low initially over Lower MI will move
north-northeastward toward Hudson Bay, with secondary low
development expected in the upper Great Lakes vicinity late in the
period. A cold front will surge southeastward through parts of the
Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic.

...South AL into the FL Panhandle and southwest GA...
Strong to locally severe storms will likely be ongoing at the start
of the period across parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle.
Rich boundary-layer moisture, sufficient buoyancy, and initially
favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support potential for
locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. As large-scale
ascent lifts away from the region with time, a general weakening
trend is currently expected from late morning into the afternoon.

...Central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic vicinity...
Buoyancy will remain quite limited through most of the day
along/ahead of the cold front from the central Appalachians into the
Mid Atlantic. However, low/midlevel flow will be strong, with 40-50
kt in the 850-700 mb layer. A band of low-topped convection
(potentially with little or no lightning) will likely develop along
the eastward-moving cold front, and may become capable of producing convectively enhanced strong/damaging gusts within this strong-flow
regime.

Late in the period, somewhat richer low-level moisture (with
dewpoints in the low 60s F) will advect inland into northern parts
of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Buoyancy may become
sufficient for somewhat deeper convection, as indicated by a modest
increase in HREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities between
06-12Z. With strong low-level flow/shear in place, locally damaging
wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany convection along
the front into early Monday morning.

..Dean/Thornton.. 10/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191237
SWODY1
SPC AC 191235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this morning from
south Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Localized wind damage will be possible later today from upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians into parts of the Mid Atlantic. Late
tonight, localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado will be
possible from the northern Mid Atlantic into parts of southern New
England.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful mid- to
upper-level trough from western Ontario southward to the central
Gulf Coast. This upper feature will attain a negative tilt as it
moves towards the Eastern Seaboard tonight. A cyclone analyzed this
morning over Lake Huron will move north-northeastward toward Hudson
Bay, while a trailing cold front will push east-southeastward
through parts of the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic.

...FL Panhandle vicinity...
An ongoing band of convection will continue to move eastward across
the northeast Gulf Coast as the airmass attempts to slowly
destabilize ahead of it. The latest surface observations confine
the richer moisture to the immediate coastal counties (i.e., beaches
and bays) of the FL Panhandle, where upper 60s to low 70s deg F
dewpoints reside. Relatively poor lapse rates will limit updraft
vigor and the overall coverage/intensity of strong to locally severe
storm activity. Nonetheless, the moist low levels in the presence
of moderate speed shear in the surface-2km layer will perhaps
support an isolated threat for a brief/weak tornado and/or a
damaging gust. This activity will likely weaken towards midday as
large-scale ascent focuses farther north and away from the region.

...Eastern OH into the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic
vicinity...
Buoyancy will remain quite limited through most of the day
along/ahead of the cold front from the upper OH Valley/central
Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic. However, low/midlevel flow will
be strong, with 40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Recent
convection-allowing model guidance agrees in showing a developing
low-topped convective band initially over eastern OH spreading into
western PA coincident with weak instability. Have correspondingly
adjusted the western bound of the wind risk to account for this
model trend.

Late in the period, somewhat richer low-level moisture (with
dewpoints in the low 60s F) will advect inland into northern parts
of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Buoyancy may become
sufficient for somewhat deeper convection, as indicated by a modest
increase in HREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities between
06-12Z. With strong low-level flow/shear in place, locally damaging
wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany convection along
the front into early Monday morning.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191624
SWODY1
SPC AC 191623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes may produce
occasional strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak tornado,
this afternoon into the Appalachians and tonight into the
Mid-Atlantic. The isolated severe-storm threat along the northeast
Gulf coast will diminish by mid-late afternoon.

...Appalachians this afternoon into the Mid-Atlantic tonight...
A sharp midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt jet will progress
from TN/KY late this morning to the Mid-Atlantic region by early
Monday morning. An associated surface cyclone is in the process of
occluding just north of Lake Superior, while a trailing cold front
continues eastward across the upper OH Valley/Appalachians today and
reaches the Atlantic coast/southern New England overnight. A narrow
band of shallow convection/enhanced reflectivity coincides with the
front/wind shift from eastern KY into OH as of 16z. West of the
surface wind shift, low-topped convection with isolated lightning
flashes continues with the primary midlevel vorticity max/left-exit
region of the jet across central KY/middle TN.

Buoyancy is expected to remain weak (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the
depth of the frontal convection will be marginal for charge
separation and lightning production. Still, there will be some
potential for downward momentum transfer of ~50 kt low-midlevel flow
and isolated wind damage with the consolidated convective band this
afternoon from eastern OH/KY and WV eastward into the Appalachians,
and overnight into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Northeast Gulf coast this afternoon...
The remnants of early morning convection persist near and south of
the FL Panhandle in association with a pre-frontal wind shift and a
weakening southern stream shortwave trough. Forcing for ascent is
expected to weaken through the afternoon and substantial inland
destabilization is unlikely given widespread clouds and weakening
southerly flow components with time. Thus, any remaining severe
threat will be confined to the coast and will likely end later this
afternoon.

...WA coast today...
A midlevel trough with associated cold air aloft and steep
low-midlevel lapse rates is spreading inland. A few low-topped
thunderstorms have been observed this morning along the WA coast,
and a few additional storms will be possible for the next 6 hours or
so. Vertical shear is sufficiently strong for some storm
organization, but the odds of sustained supercells appear too low to
warrant the introduction of severe probabilities.

..Thompson/Supinie.. 10/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191958
SWODY1
SPC AC 191956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes may produce
occasional strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak tornado,
through the remainder of this afternoon into the Appalachians and
tonight into the Mid-Atlantic.

...20Z Update...
Given the increasing lack of large-scale support and the weakening
trend of convection near the west-central coast of Florida, severe probabilities have been removed from the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend.

A shallow band of convection continues north and eastward from the
upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. The strongest
mid-level ascent will continue into the Mid-Atlantic this evening.
Despite minimal buoyancy, strong low/mid-level winds will support
sporadic damaging wind gust potential.

..Wendt.. 10/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025/

...Appalachians this afternoon into the Mid-Atlantic tonight...
A sharp midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt jet will progress
from TN/KY late this morning to the Mid-Atlantic region by early
Monday morning. An associated surface cyclone is in the process of
occluding just north of Lake Superior, while a trailing cold front
continues eastward across the upper OH Valley/Appalachians today and
reaches the Atlantic coast/southern New England overnight. A narrow
band of shallow convection/enhanced reflectivity coincides with the
front/wind shift from eastern KY into OH as of 16z. West of the
surface wind shift, low-topped convection with isolated lightning
flashes continues with the primary midlevel vorticity max/left-exit
region of the jet across central KY/middle TN.

Buoyancy is expected to remain weak (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the
depth of the frontal convection will be marginal for charge
separation and lightning production. Still, there will be some
potential for downward momentum transfer of ~50 kt low-midlevel flow
and isolated wind damage with the consolidated convective band this
afternoon from eastern OH/KY and WV eastward into the Appalachians,
and overnight into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Northeast Gulf coast this afternoon...
The remnants of early morning convection persist near and south of
the FL Panhandle in association with a pre-frontal wind shift and a
weakening southern stream shortwave trough. Forcing for ascent is
expected to weaken through the afternoon and substantial inland
destabilization is unlikely given widespread clouds and weakening
southerly flow components with time. Thus, any remaining severe
threat will be confined to the coast and will likely end later this
afternoon.

...WA coast today...
A midlevel trough with associated cold air aloft and steep
low-midlevel lapse rates is spreading inland. A few low-topped
thunderstorms have been observed this morning along the WA coast,
and a few additional storms will be possible for the next 6 hours or
so. Vertical shear is sufficiently strong for some storm
organization, but the odds of sustained supercells appear too low to
warrant the introduction of severe probabilities.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200041
SWODY1
SPC AC 200039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Low-topped convection, with minimal to no lightning flashes, may
produce isolated strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak
tornado across the Mid-Atlantic tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong upper trough
advancing across the OH/TN Valley region. 100kt 500mb speed max is
forecast to translate across NC to near the southern NJ coast by
20/12z as 180dm height falls overspread the Mid-Atlantic tonight.
Strongly forced convective line is currently observed along the cold
front, arcing from central PA-central VA-western NC. This line will
surge off the Mid-Atlantic coast after midnight along with the risk
for gusty winds. 00z sounding from IAD exhibited modest 0-3km lapse
rates, but negligible instability and a strongly sheared
environment. Lightning may struggle to develop with this low-topped
convection, but some risk for damaging winds remains, along with
perhaps a brief/weak tornado.

..Darrow.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200527
SWODY1
SPC AC 200525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storm risk is low today.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern does not look particularly favorable for severe thunderstorms across the CONUS today. Even so, one notable trough
will eject across New England and this feature is expected to aid a
narrow band of frontal convection within a strongly sheared
environment. Early this morning, lower-mid 50s surface dew points
had spread across much of southern and coastal New England.
Boundary-layer moisture should gradually increase through sunrise
ahead of the cold front such that weak instability is expected to
evolve within a poor lapse rate environment. Forecast soundings
suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, but surface-based parcels will
struggle to be buoyant except right near the wind shift. With 180dm
height falls expected ahead of the trough, a forced line of
low-topped convection is expected. At this time it appears
instability will be a bit too low to warrant a meaningful risk of
severe wind with this activity.

Across southern Florida, trailing cold front will stall across the
southern Peninsula. This boundary may serve as the focus for weak
convection as PW values remain seasonally high with adequate
buoyancy for deep updrafts.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201254
SWODY1
SPC AC 201252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe thunderstorm risk is low today.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level
trough quickly moving east-northeast across the Lower Great Lakes
and Mid-Atlantic states. This upper feature will move into New
England later today. A band of showers and low-topped convection
are located east of a front forecast to push east through much of
the Northeast through the late afternoon. A moist airmass with weak instability was sampled by the 12 UTC ALB and OKX raobs (500-750
J/kg MUCAPE). However, current observations and short-term model
guidance suggest a very limited spatiotemporal window for deeper
convection to develop this morning. Although the risk for localized
strong gusts cannot be ruled out, a meaningful risk of severe wind
appears too low with this activity.

Across southern Florida, trailing cold front will stall across the
southern Peninsula. This boundary may serve as the focus for weak
convection as PW values remain seasonally high with adequate
buoyancy for deep updrafts.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201617
SWODY1
SPC AC 201615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe thunderstorm risk is low today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Current satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
traversing the CONUS: a sharp, well-defined wave moving across the
Northeast and a lower-amplitude, more broad wave progressing through
the northern High Plains/northern Plains. The majority of the CONUS
is characterized by dry and stable conditions as high pressure
follows in the wake of a strong cold front associated with the
Northeast shortwave trough. The only exception is across New England
and far southern FL, which remain ahead of the cold front. The cold
front is expected to continue eastward/northeastward through New
England today, while becoming increasingly occluded as the
associated surface low tracks more northerly. A band of showers is
ongoing across New England now, but scant buoyancy across the region
has kept storms shallow thus far. A few instances of lightning are
still possible within this band as well as a few stronger,
convective augmented gusts. However, the overall severe probability
should remain too low to introduce an outlook area. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front in south FL as well,
but weak shear should preclude any severe threat.

Two other areas could see isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening and overnight, both associated with the western
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon/evening across southeast MT and adjacent northeast WY and
western SD amid strong forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level
temperatures. Aa instance or two of small hail is possible as well.
Farther southeast, a few thunderstorms are possible overnight into
early tomorrow morning from the Arklatex into northwest MS as the
cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. These
storms should be post-frontal with very limited severe potential.

..Mosier/Jirak.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201946
SWODY1
SPC AC 201945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is expected today or tonight across the continental
U.S.

No change is made to this outlook from the previous outlook.

..Broyles.. 10/20/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Current satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
traversing the CONUS: a sharp, well-defined wave moving across the
Northeast and a lower-amplitude, more broad wave progressing through
the northern High Plains/northern Plains. The majority of the CONUS
is characterized by dry and stable conditions as high pressure
follows in the wake of a strong cold front associated with the
Northeast shortwave trough. The only exception is across New England
and far southern FL, which remain ahead of the cold front. The cold
front is expected to continue eastward/northeastward through New
England today, while becoming increasingly occluded as the
associated surface low tracks more northerly. A band of showers is
ongoing across New England now, but scant buoyancy across the region
has kept storms shallow thus far. A few instances of lightning are
still possible within this band as well as a few stronger,
convective augmented gusts. However, the overall severe probability
should remain too low to introduce an outlook area. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front in south FL as well,
but weak shear should preclude any severe threat.

Two other areas could see isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening and overnight, both associated with the western
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon/evening across southeast MT and adjacent northeast WY and
western SD amid strong forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level
temperatures. Aa instance or two of small hail is possible as well.
Farther southeast, a few thunderstorms are possible overnight into
early tomorrow morning from the Arklatex into northwest MS as the
cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. These
storms should be post-frontal with very limited severe potential.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210029
SWODY1
SPC AC 210027

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential will increase later tonight across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not expected.

...01z Update...

Nocturnal cooling is contributing to a stabilizing boundary layer
across most of the CONUS early this evening. 00z soundings support
this with only meager instability observed at UNR within a steep
low-level lapse rate environment. South FL soundings continue to
exhibit modest buoyancy but lightning trends are definitively down.
This trend is expected to continue over the next few hours.

Later tonight, elevated instability will increase across the lower
MS Valley. Weak convection is expected to develop across this region along/ahead of a surging frontal zone. Forecast soundings do not
appear particularly favorable for large hail and severe
probabilities will not be introduced.

..Darrow.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210535
SWODY1
SPC AC 210533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South
Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions. Organized severe
threat appears low today.

...Discussion...

Strong upper trough will dig into the central Great Lakes region by
late afternoon as 80+kt 500mb speed max translates across southern
IL into central KY. 180m 12hr height falls will overspread much of
the Great Lakes region with substantial falls expected as far south
as the TN Valley. Latest model guidance suggests notable
boundary-layer heating will occur across southern IL/IN into
southern Lower MI by mid day, just ahead of a surging cold front.
This will contribute to steep 0-3km lapse rates and weak instability
as convective temperatures are breached by 19z ahead of the wind
shift. Forecast soundings support this with a few hundred J/kg
SBCAPE by early afternoon as 500mb temperatures cool below -24C.
Isolated thunderstorms should develop within a strongly forced
environment then spread downstream ahead of the progressive trough.
With surface dew points expected to mix into the upper 30s there is
some concern this activity could generate gusty winds; however, mean
wind in the boundary layer should remain around 30kt and this may
prove too weak to warrant more than sub-severe mixing/downdrafts.

Isolated thunderstorms, a few possibly strong, are also expected
along the trailing boundary across the lower MS Valley. While
large-scale forcing will be limited at lower latitudes, instability
will be considerably greater, though deep-layer shear will not be
strong. Current thinking is convection should remain sub severe with
the possibility for gusty winds.

Elsewhere - scattered convection should once again develop across
the southern FL Peninsula today, and perhaps across southern New
England very late in the period as LLJ strengthens into this part of
the country.

..Darrow/Moore.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211238
SWODY1
SPC AC 211236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible this afternoon
over a portion of the southern Great Lakes.

...Southern Great Lakes...
Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper vorticity maximum
over western IA will quickly rotate through the base of a
larger-scale trough/mid-level low centered over the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. This upper feature is forecast to move across
the southern Great Lakes during the afternoon as a belt of intense
mid- to high-level flow arcs from the north-central Plains through
the MS/OH Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic states. The mid-level
cold pocket (-24 to -27 deg C at 500 mb) will overspread a boundary
layer with surface temperatures rising into the lower 60s
immediately ahead of a cold front. Latest RAP/NAM/HRRR model
guidance shows a plume of 0-3 km lapse rates in excess of 9 deg C/km
protruding northeast from IN into northwest OH as widely scattered
convection develops during the early to mid afternoon. As this
shallow convection matures, strong to locally severe gusts (50-65
mph) are possible for a few hours before this activity weakens by
the early evening as it spreads across the Lake Erie vicinity.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of
northwest Gulf Coast states into the southern Appalachians, and late
tonight over portions of southern New England.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211626
SWODY1
SPC AC 211625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible this afternoon
over parts of the southern Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor loop and upper-air data indicate a midlevel low
tracking east-southeastward over the upper Midwest -- accompanied by
cold 500-mb temperatures (around -28C). This feature will continue
eastward across the Great Lakes through the period, while a cold
front moves from the Upper OH Valley to the Atlantic Coast. Within
the base of the midlevel low, an embedded vorticitiy maximum will
move across the Lower Great Lakes through the afternoon, while a
related surface front/wind shift overspreads IN, OH, and Lower MI.

...Southern Great Lakes...
In the wake of a weakening band of showers along the departing front
over the upper OH Valley, mostly clear skies will promote
boundary-layer heating/steepening low-level lapse rates (shallow
inverted-V profiles) beneath the midlevel cold pocket -- yielding
marginal destabilization across parts of northern OH and southeast
Lower MI. As widely scattered convection along the secondary surface
front/wind shift spreads/develops into this environment, a modest
uptick in updraft intensity is possible this afternoon. Given strong
deep-layer flow flanking the midlevel low, isolated strong-locally
severe convectively enhanced wind gusts (45-60 mph) will be possible
during the late afternoon into early evening time frame. Small hail
will also be possible with any shallow cellular convection.

...Central Gulf Coast vicinity...
A warm, moist, and uncapped air mass ahead of the tail-end of the
cold front will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of east
TX into southern LA this afternoon. While moderate surface-based
buoyancy and around 25 kt of effective shear could promote a couple
strong storms along the front, warm temperatures aloft and minimal
large-scale forcing for ascent should generally limit upward
accelerations in updrafts.

..Weinman/Supinie.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 212000
SWODY1
SPC AC 211958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible this afternoon
over parts of the southern Great Lakes.

...20Z Update...
Minimal changes were made with this update. The MRGL risk area was
trimmed behind an eastward-moving band of low-topped convection in
southeast Lower MI, where temperatures have dropped into the lower
50s. As these storms continue eastward across the remainder of far
southeast Lower MI and northern OH this afternoon, strong to locally
severe gusts (45-60 mph) will remain possible -- aided by steepened pre-convective boundary-layer lapse rates and 35-40-kt flow below 2
km AGL (per VWP data).

Farther south, the TSTM area was trimmed behind the
southeastward-moving cold front in the Southeast, and in the
southern Appalachians where convection has generally outpaced the
remaining buoyancy.

..Weinman.. 10/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025/

...Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor loop and upper-air data indicate a midlevel low
tracking east-southeastward over the upper Midwest -- accompanied by
cold 500-mb temperatures (around -28C). This feature will continue
eastward across the Great Lakes through the period, while a cold
front moves from the Upper OH Valley to the Atlantic Coast. Within
the base of the midlevel low, an embedded vorticitiy maximum will
move across the Lower Great Lakes through the afternoon, while a
related surface front/wind shift overspreads IN, OH, and Lower MI.

...Southern Great Lakes...
In the wake of a weakening band of showers along the departing front
over the upper OH Valley, mostly clear skies will promote
boundary-layer heating/steepening low-level lapse rates (shallow
inverted-V profiles) beneath the midlevel cold pocket -- yielding
marginal destabilization across parts of northern OH and southeast
Lower MI. As widely scattered convection along the secondary surface
front/wind shift spreads/develops into this environment, a modest
uptick in updraft intensity is possible this afternoon. Given strong
deep-layer flow flanking the midlevel low, isolated strong-locally
severe convectively enhanced wind gusts (45-60 mph) will be possible
during the late afternoon into early evening time frame. Small hail
will also be possible with any shallow cellular convection.

...Central Gulf Coast vicinity...
A warm, moist, and uncapped air mass ahead of the tail-end of the
cold front will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of east
TX into southern LA this afternoon. While moderate surface-based
buoyancy and around 25 kt of effective shear could promote a couple
strong storms along the front, warm temperatures aloft and minimal
large-scale forcing for ascent should generally limit upward
accelerations in updrafts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220026
SWODY1
SPC AC 220025

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong midlevel height falls are spreading across the Mid-Atlantic
early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a progressive
trough advancing into the upper OH Valley and along with it
seasonally cold 500mb temperatures. This has contributed to steep
0-3km lapse rates and weak buoyancy north of the jet. However,
boundary layer cooling will negate this to a large degree over the
next few hours and convection should gradually weaken. Latest
lightning data supports this with decreasing flashes evident across
eastern OH. Even so, models appear to have underestimated buoyancy a
bit across western/northern VA as updrafts have penetrated levels
necessary for lightning. 00z sounding from IAD exhibited around 70
J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 2km AGL - just adequate for
lightning discharge. Have extended thunder probabilities into this
portion of the Mid-Atlantic to account for ongoing thunderstorms,
which should spread into southern PA over the next few hours.

..Darrow.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220517
SWODY1
SPC AC 220516

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe threat is negligible today.

...Discussion...

Dominant upper trough over the northeastern part of the CONUS will
influence much of the country east of the Rockies during the day1
period. Surface anticyclone is expected to settle into lower
latitudes which will force a front deep into the Gulf basin. As a
result, continental air mass will limit buoyancy across much of the
region.

Even so, lightning is expected with convection across portions much
of New England prior to a strong frontal passage, and over the
warmer waters of the lower Great Lakes. Another region where
lightning is expected is across portions of the southwest. A notable
upper low is approaching southern CA and this feature will advance
inland as a 500mb speed max translates across the lower CO River
Valley into AZ late in the period. PW values are not forecast to be
that high so instability will be limited ahead of the trough.
Despite the weak buoyancy, lightning is expected with the deeper
convective updrafts, initially across central CA by mid day, then
spreading east toward the Four Corners by early evening.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221251
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe weather risk appears negligible through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a pronounced upper trough/low
over the Northeast and southeast Canada, while another similar
feature moves ashore the CA coast today. In the low levels, a front
will push northeast through New England today. A several hour
window of opportunity will exist for low-topped thunderstorms to
develop ahead of the front across southern New England. The 12 UTC
OKX raob only showed around 200 J/kg MUCAPE in proximity to where
weak convection has developed this morning. Model forecast
soundings vary regarding the magnitude of instability (i.e., scant
to weak) across southern New England this morning, casting some
uncertainty on storm intensity. The scenario of a negligible risk
for severe from weak/shallow convection appears most probable with
this activity before it pushes east of the coast. Farther west over
CA and the Desert Southwest, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will intermittently occur as a lobe of ascent and adequate PW
facilitate the development of storms through early evening.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221629
SWODY1
SPC AC 221627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe weather risk appears negligible through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Current satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones over North
America, a more broad cyclone centered over the Great
Lakes/southeastern Ontario and another more compact cyclone farther
west just off the central/southern CA Coast. Surface analysis
reveals a pair of lows associated with the Great Lakes cyclone: an
occluded low beneath the primary cyclone over Lake Huron and another triple-point low farther east over the coast of southern ME.
Continued northeastward progression of this system, including the
coastal ME surface low, will continue to push the warm sector
farther offshore, limiting any severe potential. Lightning is still
possible within the warm-air advection showers throughout the
afternoon, with the highest coverage across Downeast ME. Isolated
lightning is also still possible across New England where continued
forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support
deeper updrafts. Isolated lightning flashes are also possible over
and in close proximity to the Lower Great Lakes, where warm lake
temperatures locally steepen the low-level lapse rates.

Farther west, the cyclone off the central/southern CA coast is
expected to progress eastward across central CA and far southern NV
during the period. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of
this cyclone from central CA into the Great Basin and AZ. Increasing
low to mid-level moisture and decreasing mid-level temperatures
downstream of this cyclone will support continued thunderstorms
downstream into the Four Corners and western NM.

..Mosier/Weinman.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221954
SWODY1
SPC AC 221953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...20Z Update...
The primary change made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim thunderstorm probabilities across portions of the Lower Colorado
River Basin and the Northeast, where the progression of upper
troughs are shunting scant buoyancy northeastward, away from the
aforementioned regions, reducing thunderstorm potential. Otherwise,
the previous forecast remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 10/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Current satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones over North
America, a more broad cyclone centered over the Great
Lakes/southeastern Ontario and another more compact cyclone farther
west just off the central/southern CA Coast. Surface analysis
reveals a pair of lows associated with the Great Lakes cyclone: an
occluded low beneath the primary cyclone over Lake Huron and another triple-point low farther east over the coast of southern ME.
Continued northeastward progression of this system, including the
coastal ME surface low, will continue to push the warm sector
farther offshore, limiting any severe potential. Lightning is still
possible within the warm-air advection showers throughout the
afternoon, with the highest coverage across Downeast ME. Isolated
lightning is also still possible across New England where continued
forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support
deeper updrafts. Isolated lightning flashes are also possible over
and in close proximity to the Lower Great Lakes, where warm lake
temperatures locally steepen the low-level lapse rates.

Farther west, the cyclone off the central/southern CA coast is
expected to progress eastward across central CA and far southern NV
during the period. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of
this cyclone from central CA into the Great Basin and AZ. Increasing
low to mid-level moisture and decreasing mid-level temperatures
downstream of this cyclone will support continued thunderstorms
downstream into the Four Corners and western NM.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230031
SWODY1
SPC AC 230029

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible, primarily across portions of
the southwestern U.S., this evening.

...01z Update...

Water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low advancing inland across
southern CA. This feature will move into northwestern AZ by 23/12z
as 500mb speed max translates across the lower CO River Valley into
eastern AZ late tonight. Along/north of this jet, cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates are proving favorable for
isolated thunderstorms. While nocturnal cooling should lead to
weaker updrafts and less lightning by late evening, a few flashes
may continue to accompany elevated convection that forms in response
to moistening midlevels ahead of the trough.

..Darrow.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230541
SWODY1
SPC AC 230539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Great Plains...

Southern CA upper low is advancing east in line with latest model
guidance. Early morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined
circulation approaching the lower CO River Valley. This feature is
forecast to progress into the southern Rockies by 24/00z, and shift
slowly east during the overnight hours. As the trough moves east,
LLJ will begin to increase across the southern Great Plains,
especially during the evening when speeds should exceed 40kt across
west TX into the TX Panhandle. While lee cyclogenesis is not
expected to be particularly focused/intense, low-level warm
advection will focus across the southern Plains and an extended
convective event is expected, especially during the latter half of
the period extending into the day2 period.

Low-level trajectories are becoming a bit more favorable for Gulf
moisture to advance across south TX into the High Plains. 70s dew
points are currently noted across deep South TX while 60F dew points
are noted as far north as Kimble Count. PW values will increase
markedly over the next 24-36hr across TX into OK and this will
contribute to destabilization ahead of the approaching trough.
Models suggest a southwest-northeast oriented boundary will extend
from the TX South Plains into southwest OK by mid afternoon.
Strongest boundary-layer heating will be just south of this wind
shift and modest 0-3km lapse rates should aid buoyancy by peak
heating as temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s. This boundary
will prove instrumental in convective development as midlevel flow
begins to increase ahead of the trough. Forecast soundings suggest
supercells are possible and hail is likely the primary concern.
However, as moisture increases near the boundary conditions may
become a bit more favorable for a tornado or two. Severe risk will
likely linger well into the overnight hours as the primary corridor
of deep convection will not move appreciably across the southern
Plains.

Upstream, isolated robust convection should develop within
cool/steep lapse rate environment across the southern Rockies. This
activity should be diurnally driven and some risk for marginally
severe hail/wind is possible.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231225
SWODY1
SPC AC 231223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Great Plains...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low near the
NV/UT/AZ border and model guidance shows this feature moving east
into southern CO by late tonight. Southerly low-level flow is
forecast to gradually increase through the evening and aid in
moisture advecting northward from south-central TX (12.5 g/kg lowest
100-mb mean mixing ratio via the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob) into
northwest TX and southern OK. Models continue to show only weak lee cyclogenesis, but the pronounced increase of a LLJ and associated
low-level warm advection will aid in storm development and focus
severe potential late this afternoon but especially into the
evening/overnight.

A southwest-northeast oriented boundary will extend from the TX
South Plains into southwest OK by mid afternoon. The stronger
heating and moisture increase will likely set up along and south of
the boundary. The latest forecast soundings suggest supercells
capable of a threat for large hail will be the primary risk from the
TX South Plains northeast into southwest OK during the evening.
Some enlargement of the hodograph and moistening low levels could
yield an isolated risk for a tornado, in addition to localized
severe gusts with the stronger storms. An increase in convective
coverage is expected through the late evening as the LLJ and
associated warm advection promote clustering and messy storm modes
with time, coincident with a waning overall severe threat into the
overnight.

Farther west, diurnally-driven storms will likely develop in closer
proximity to the mid-level cold pocket over the southern Rockies.
An isolated risk for marginally severe hail/wind is possible with
this activity before subsiding during the evening.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231631
SWODY1
SPC AC 231629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Plains...
A well-defined shortwave trough continues to push eastward through
the Four Corners and Southwest this morning. Expectation is for this
trough to extend from western CO southwestward through northwest NM
and eastern AZ by early tomorrow morning. Enhanced mid-level flow
associated with this trough will expand eastward into the southern
High Plains by early this evening, with continued expansion into
more of the southern Plains expected overnight.

Mass response and modest surface cyclogenesis ahead of this
shortwave will result in strengthening low-level flow throughout the
day, with 60s dewpoints likely reaching northwest TX and southwest
OK by 21Z. Low-level moisture advection is anticipated into the
southern High Plains as well, but will be offset by strong
heating/deep boundary-layer mixing. Late-afternoon dewpoints across
the Permian Basin/TX South Plains will likely be in the mid 50s. The
resulting discontinuity in the moisture (and temperature) fields may
result in low-level convergence, although this convergence should be
relatively modest given the diffuse character of the boundary and
generally modest cyclogenesis. Even so, this convergence could be
enough for convective initiation, particularly given its
persistence. The best location for initial convective initiation
appears to be in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity where the
best overlap between low-level convergence, low-level moisture, and
steep mid-level lapse rates exists. How this initial development
evolves in uncertain, but there is some potential for a few
supercells. Large hail is possible with any supercells early, with a
trend towards more wind gusts as these storms become outflow
dominant. Tornado risk will be limited by relatively weak low-level
flow and higher storm bases, but a low-probability threat still
exists given the increase vorticity near the boundary.

Overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase significantly
during the evening amid a combination of an increasing large-scale
ascent and a strengthening low-level jet. This should largely favor
elevated storm modes, with hail as the primary risk. That being
said, increasing low-level moisture with eastern extent could result
in trends towards more surface-based character and potentially a few
stronger gusts. However, the more linear/clustered mode should keep
the tornado risk low.

...NM and southern CO...
Diurnally-driven storms will likely develop in closer proximity to
the mid-level cold pocket over the southern Rockies. An isolated
threat for marginally severe hail/wind is possible with this
activity before subsiding during the evening.

..Mosier/Moore.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231952
SWODY1
SPC AC 231950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are likely across the southern Great
Plains this evening through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains generally on track. An isolated
instance of severe hail/wind remains possible across portions of the
southern Rockies, as cold temperatures aloft overspread a seasonably
warm and moist low-level airmass (see MCD 2163 for more details).
Later this evening into tonight, multiple rounds of strong
thunderstorms (some producing severe hail and perhaps wind) still
appear likely within the warm sector. The best chance for a tornado
would be with storms at the nose of the warm-air advection regime in
northwest TX into central OK, where veering low-level vertical wind
profiles and robust moisture best coincide.

..Squitieri.. 10/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025/

...Southern Plains...
A well-defined shortwave trough continues to push eastward through
the Four Corners and Southwest this morning. Expectation is for this
trough to extend from western CO southwestward through northwest NM
and eastern AZ by early tomorrow morning. Enhanced mid-level flow
associated with this trough will expand eastward into the southern
High Plains by early this evening, with continued expansion into
more of the southern Plains expected overnight.

Mass response and modest surface cyclogenesis ahead of this
shortwave will result in strengthening low-level flow throughout the
day, with 60s dewpoints likely reaching northwest TX and southwest
OK by 21Z. Low-level moisture advection is anticipated into the
southern High Plains as well, but will be offset by strong
heating/deep boundary-layer mixing. Late-afternoon dewpoints across
the Permian Basin/TX South Plains will likely be in the mid 50s. The
resulting discontinuity in the moisture (and temperature) fields may
result in low-level convergence, although this convergence should be
relatively modest given the diffuse character of the boundary and
generally modest cyclogenesis. Even so, this convergence could be
enough for convective initiation, particularly given its
persistence. The best location for initial convective initiation
appears to be in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity where the
best overlap between low-level convergence, low-level moisture, and
steep mid-level lapse rates exists. How this initial development
evolves in uncertain, but there is some potential for a few
supercells. Large hail is possible with any supercells early, with a
trend towards more wind gusts as these storms become outflow
dominant. Tornado risk will be limited by relatively weak low-level
flow and higher storm bases, but a low-probability threat still
exists given the increase vorticity near the boundary.

Overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase significantly
during the evening amid a combination of an increasing large-scale
ascent and a strengthening low-level jet. This should largely favor
elevated storm modes, with hail as the primary risk. That being
said, increasing low-level moisture with eastern extent could result
in trends towards more surface-based character and potentially a few
stronger gusts. However, the more linear/clustered mode should keep
the tornado risk low.

...NM and southern CO...
Diurnally-driven storms will likely develop in closer proximity to
the mid-level cold pocket over the southern Rockies. An isolated
threat for marginally severe hail/wind is possible with this
activity before subsiding during the evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240039
SWODY1
SPC AC 240038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the southern
Great Plains tonight.

...01z Update...

Only minor changes are warranted to severe probabilities across the
southern Great Plains tonight. Otherwise, earlier thoughts regarding
the evolution of convection remain.

Southern stream short-wave trough is advancing across the Four
Corners region into the southern Rockies early this evening.
Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well with the leading edge
of large-scale forcing now spreading into the southern High Plains
region. Well ahead of the short wave, remnants of a weak midlevel
vort are located just northwest of OKC, shifting east. Strong-severe
convection is evolving ahead of this feature along a corridor of
modest lapse rates/buoyancy. 00z sounding from OKC exhibited around
1700 J/kg MLCAPE with wind profiles favoring supercells.

Southwest-northeast surface boundary will likely serve as the focus
for severe storms tonight. This boundary should remain draped from
west TX into southern OK and low-level warm advection is expected to
aid ongoing activity, and new development through 12z. 00z sounding
from MAF was negligibly inhibited with very steep lapse rates and
modest instability. With LLJ expected to increase across west TX
into the Panhandle, a prolonged convective event is expected
along/north of the wind shift. Hail should be the primary concern,
through wind, and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible.

..Darrow.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240536
SWODY1
SPC AC 240535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of
Texas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Texas...

Upper low near the Four Corners region has slowed considerably and
will only advance into the southern High Plains by the end of the
day1 period. Early this morning, a notable midlevel speed max is
ejecting across the northern Gulf of CA. This feature will translate
across northern Mexico into the extreme southern portions of the Big
Bend region by 25/00z before the strongest flow advances into
northeast TX by the end of the period. This low-latitude speed max
will encourage a weak surface low to drop south across west TX, then
southeast along the Rio Grande River as midlevel heights fall across
TX.

A southwest-northeast corridor of convection persists from west TX
into the Red River region at 0530z, and this is reinforcing a
surface boundary that should struggle to advance appreciably north
through the period. Strongest LLJ will focus across the TX South
Plains and this is expected to modulate multiple convective events,
especially near the stalled boundary. Extensive clouds/precipitation
will limit boundary layer heating, but modest buoyancy is expected
across much of western into south central TX as midlevel flow
increases during the day.

While LLJ will prove instrumental in convective development both
prior to sunrise and early in the period, large-scale forcing should
encourage thunderstorm development by early afternoon along the
eastern edge of stronger boundary layer heating across west TX. This
activity should grow upscale and propagate east as a larger complex
of storms. Strengthening wind profiles favor supercells, but storm
mode will likely be complex with storm mergers and one or more MCSs
likely. All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be
more common with linear activity. Convection should easily advance
beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal Plain of
TX by 25/12z.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241220
SWODY1
SPC AC 241218

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST...NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

...Texas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
near the San Juan Mountains in southwestern CO. This upper feature
is forecast to slowly migrate southeastward to the TX South Plains
by daybreak Saturday. A belt of moderately strong southwesterly
500-mb flow will extend through the base of the trough over
Chihuahua east-northeastward through west and central TX. Morning
surface analysis places a frontal zone draped from the mouth of the
Sabine River (TX-LA border) northwestward through north TX and
northward through western OK. An ill-defined cold front extends
from southwest KS southwestward bisecting NM. The northwestern rim
of richer moisture (upper 50s to lower 60s degree F surface
dewpoints) arcs from southwestern TX through the TX South Plains and
into the eastern TX Panhandle.

Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms ongoing this
morning are in association with a broad, low-level warm/moist
advection zone via a 40 kt 850-mb LLJ centered over northwest TX.
The LLJ is progged to gradually weaken during the period and shift
slowly east while a low-level warm-air advection regime persists
through the period. A somewhat nebulous boundary (best
characterized as a weak wind shift/northern moisture gradient) will
probably serve as a focus for strong/severe storm activity expected
to develop later today. Some modest heating in wake of early
showers will lead to a destabilizing airmass by afternoon, despite
rather extensive mid- to high-level cloud cover. A gradual
development of scattered to numerous storms will likely occur this
afternoon into the evening coincident with diurnal destabilization.
Similar to prior forecast thinking, strengthening wind profiles
favor supercells, but storm mode will likely be complex with storm
mergers and one or more MCSs likely, but specific details in terms
of potential mesoscale corridors for severe remain unclear at this
time. All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be
more common with linear activity. Convection should easily advance
beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal plain of
TX by early Saturday morning.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241608
SWODY1
SPC AC 241606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

...Texas...

An upper trough and associated 500 mb jet streak will continue to
overspread western TX into the afternoon. Large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting trough and 40+ kt effective shear
within a low-level warm advection regime is supporting strong
thunderstorms across far West TX this morning. This activity may
initially pose a risk for marginally severe hail within the modestly
unstable environment.

A cold front/wind shift draped across the Panhandle will only shift
modestly southeast through the period, while a stationary
boundary/moisture gradient remains oriented over western/central OK
into east TX. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be common between the
two surface boundaries and beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates.
While cloud cover will suppress heating to some degree across
western TX, convection is expected to slowly increase in
coverage/intensity by early to mid-afternoon. MLCAPE around
1500-2000 J/kg is expected amid supercell wind profiles. Veering
vertical wind profiles will result in enlarged and favorably curved
low-level hodograph, while increasing southwesterly flow aloft will
favor elongated hodographs above 2-3 km. In combination with
favorable lapse rates/midlevel thermodynamic profiles, any cellular/supercellular convection will pose a risk for large hail,
with isolated 2+ inch hail possible.

Some tornado risk will also accompany storms today and this evening
aided by supercell wind profiles. However, low-level lapse rates and
0-3 km MLCAPE will remain modest. Furthermore, the 850 mb low-level
jet is expected to weaken through the day and shift east/northeast.
While some strengthening of the low-level jet may occur during the
evening, it is not expected to be particularly strong. Nevertheless
a couple of tornadoes could occur with supercells across portions of
the Permian Basin toward central TX.

Convective evolution may become messy quickly given storm mergers
and a lack of strong surface cyclogenesis. With time, linear
convection is expected to develop and spread east across central TX
into the evening. One or more MCSs may develop and approach the
coastal plain by Saturday morning. Linear convection will pose a
risk of strong to locally damaging gusts.

..Leitman/Karstens.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241943
SWODY1
SPC AC 241941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

...20z Update...
The primary forecast adjustment was a northward expansion of the 5%
tornado and 15% wind (Slight risk) probabilities into portions of
north-central TX. Recent surface observations across the DFW metro
show a pocket of higher theta-e air characterized by dewpoints in
the upper 60s and low 70s. This air mass should advect to the
northwest through the late afternoon/evening hours where it will
likely be impinged upon by an approaching convective line (which is
in the early stages of development across western TX per KMAF
imagery). Forecast soundings from recent high-res guidance suggest
low-level SRH may increase to around 150 m2/s2 in tandem with a
modest uptick in the low-level jet ahead of the line. This
combination of localized high-quality moisture and increasing
low-level shear may support a corridor where a few embedded
circulations within the line may be more probable. This idea is also
supported by recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which depict a secondary UH
maximum across north Texas approximately during the 23-03 UTC
period. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track with no
changes required. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2168
for additional details.

..Moore.. 10/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025/

...Texas...

An upper trough and associated 500 mb jet streak will continue to
overspread western TX into the afternoon. Large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting trough and 40+ kt effective shear
within a low-level warm advection regime is supporting strong
thunderstorms across far West TX this morning. This activity may
initially pose a risk for marginally severe hail within the modestly
unstable environment.

A cold front/wind shift draped across the Panhandle will only shift
modestly southeast through the period, while a stationary
boundary/moisture gradient remains oriented over western/central OK
into east TX. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be common between the
two surface boundaries and beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates.
While cloud cover will suppress heating to some degree across
western TX, convection is expected to slowly increase in
coverage/intensity by early to mid-afternoon. MLCAPE around
1500-2000 J/kg is expected amid supercell wind profiles. Veering
vertical wind profiles will result in enlarged and favorably curved
low-level hodograph, while increasing southwesterly flow aloft will
favor elongated hodographs above 2-3 km. In combination with
favorable lapse rates/midlevel thermodynamic profiles, any cellular/supercellular convection will pose a risk for large hail,
with isolated 2+ inch hail possible.

Some tornado risk will also accompany storms today and this evening
aided by supercell wind profiles. However, low-level lapse rates and
0-3 km MLCAPE will remain modest. Furthermore, the 850 mb low-level
jet is expected to weaken through the day and shift east/northeast.
While some strengthening of the low-level jet may occur during the
evening, it is not expected to be particularly strong. Nevertheless
a couple of tornadoes could occur with supercells across portions of
the Permian Basin toward central TX.

Convective evolution may become messy quickly given storm mergers
and a lack of strong surface cyclogenesis. With time, linear
convection is expected to develop and spread east across central TX
into the evening. One or more MCSs may develop and approach the
coastal plain by Saturday morning. Linear convection will pose a
risk of strong to locally damaging gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250034
SWODY1
SPC AC 250033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging
wind gusts and potentially a tornado or two will be possible across
parts of Texas this evening.

...Southern Plains...
On water vapor imagery, a trough is located over the southern
Rockies with divergent west-southwesterly flow located over the
southern Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are ongoing within a
plume of mid-level moisture located from southwest Texas
northeastward into north-central Texas. The storms are located along
a zone of strong low-level convergence, on the northwestern edge of
a moist airmass. Within much of this airmass, the RAP is estimating
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range. Over the top of this airmass,
the RAP is analyzing a mid-level jet streak from northern Mexico
into central Texas, where 500 mb speeds are between 40 and 50 knots.
The stronger flow is evident on the 00Z Del Rio sounding which has
0-6 km shear near 50 knots. In addition, the sounding has steep low
to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This will
support supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores.
The greatest potential for very large hail will be from the western
Texas Hill Country westward to eastern parts of the Texas Big Bend.
These storms will also be capable of severe wind gusts, and
potentially a brief tornado.

Further to the northeast into central and north-central Texas, the
storms have organized into a line near the western edge of the
stronger low-level flow. This could favor severe wind gusts as the
primary threat, although large hail will also be possible with the
more intense parts of the line. A brief tornado along the leading
edge of the line could also occur. The ongoing storms are forecast
to move eastward across the remainder of the Texas Hill Country this
evening. Although the severe threat should become more isolated
later this evening, large hail and severe wind gusts will still be
possible within any convection that can remain organized. The severe
threat should become more marginal late tonight as the storms move
onto the Texas Coastal Plains.

..Broyles.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250601
SWODY1
SPC AC 250600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with a tornado threat, large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from
central Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large
hail will be possible across parts of the middle Texas Coastal
Plain. A couple of severe gusts or a brief tornado are also possible
over parts of the Pacific Northwest.

...Western Gulf States...
A mid-level low will move eastward into the southern Plains today,
as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of
the system. Ahead of the system, diffluent southwesterly mid-level
flow will be in place over much of the western Gulf Coast states. A
linear MCS will be ongoing at the start of the period across
southeast Texas. A tornado and wind-damage threat will exist with
the more intense segments of the line. The severe threat will
continue to move eastward across central and southern Louisiana this
morning, reaching the New Orleans area by early afternoon.

Although the line will stabilize the airmass over much of Louisiana,
moderate instability is expected to redevelop in its wake over the
Texas Coastal Plain, where MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, low-level convergence will aid scattered convective
initiation this afternoon across eastern parts of the Texas Hill
Country and over the middle Texas Coastal Plain. RAP forecast
soundings late this afternoon from San Antonio to Houston have 0-6
km shear around 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
This should support supercells with large hail. The more intense
supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter.

In addition, 0-3 km storm relative-helicity is forecast to be in the
200 to 250 m2/s2 range over the middle Texas Coastal Plain
suggesting that a few tornadoes will be possible. A potential will
exist for a strong tornado, although this remains uncertain. The
storms are expected to congeal into a linear convective system by
early evening. A potential for damaging wind gusts will exist along
the leading edge of the line, with the threat continuing into the
early overnight period, along and near the coast of southern
Louisiana.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough, and an associated plume of moisture, will move
eastward into the Pacific Northwest today. Strong large-scale ascent
will be favorable for thunderstorm development along the coast of
Washington and Oregon. A brief tornado and marginally severe wind
gusts will be possible as cells move inland near the coast. Further
east into parts of southeast Washington and far northeast Oregon,
thunderstorm development will be possible late this afternoon as a
low-level jet streak moves across the region. In this area, lapse
rates will be steep and flow will be strong suggesting that an
isolated wind-damage threat will be possible.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251242
SWODY1
SPC AC 251241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight from
central Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...TX-LA...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the
southern High Plains and it is forecast to move east across much of
OK by early Sunday morning. Strong cyclonic 500-mb flow (40-60 kt)
will move through the base of the larger scale trough over TX and
eventually moving into the lower MS Valley. An ongoing MCS across
southwestern LA and the northwest Gulf of America will likely
progress eastward across southern LA through early afternoon. An
isolated risk for damaging gusts (55-65 mph) and a brief tornado may
continue east but be increasingly confined to the coastal parishes
as the squall line's eastward movement outpaces appreciable inland destabilization.

High uncertainty is apparent farther west across central into east
and coastal portions of TX. Earlier shower/thunderstorm activity
across much of the mid and upper coastal plain of TX has rendered
substantial convective overturning of the airmass from the coastal
plain northwestward towards the I-35 corridor north of a composite
outflow boundary. Models vary regarding destabilization and this
signal in model data is congruent with forecaster experience in
placing low confidence in potential storm evolution later this
afternoon into the evening across central and east TX. Nonetheless,
there will probably exist a window of opportunity for diurnal
destabilization arcing around the south and west portions of the
mesoscale surface high. Some forecast soundings show moderate
instability in the presence of strong mid to high-level westerly flow---supporting supercells and storm organization with
accompanying potential for damaging gusts.

Have adjusted the northern bounds of tornado probabilities farther
south in closer proximity to richer moisture, and removed 15-percent
hail probabilities across southeast TX and LA where lapse rates will
likely remain stunted through early Sunday morning. The tornado
risk correspondingly will tend to favor any supercell development in
proximity to richer moisture and mesovortex structures within parent
QLCSs, but low confidence exists regarding this forecast given
aforementioned convective-related concerns.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough, and an associated plume of moisture, will move
eastward into the Pacific Northwest today. Strong large-scale
ascent will be favorable for thunderstorm development along the
coast of Washington and Oregon. A brief tornado risk could develop
near the immediate coast and marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible as cells move inland. Farther east into parts of southeast
Washington and far northeast Oregon, thunderstorm development will
be possible late this afternoon with perhaps isolated severe gusts
associated with the stronger thunderstorms.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251629
SWODY1
SPC AC 251628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight from
parts of south-central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...South-Central/Coastal Texas into Louisiana...
Extensive convective overturning occurred overnight/early this
morning across central/east TX into LA with an MCS that has decayed
across coastal LA as of late this morning. Recent radar and visible
satellite imagery show a band of outflow arcing from south-central
LA across the northwest Gulf and into south-central TX. The degree
of destabilization that can occur today from central/east TX into LA
in the wake of this outflow remains uncertain. Cool mid-level
temperatures will persist through the period across the southern
Plains as a closed mid/upper-level low moves slowly eastward from
the TX Panhandle across OK. The best potential for weak to locally
moderate instability to develop this afternoon may exist over
portions of central into southeast TX, where some cloud breaks are
noted and generally mid 60s surface dewpoints are still in place.

Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms to redevelop
this afternoon along a secondary outflow boundary extending across
central into east/coastal TX, as ascent associated with a 40-50+ kt
mid-level jet rounding the base of the upper trough/low overspreads
this area. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support
supercells with this initial activity. Large hail may occur with any
sustained supercell. With time this evening, outflow interactions
should encourage another MCS to develop across southeast TX and
vicinity. Scattered damaging winds should become a greater concern
as this MCS develops eastward across parts of LA overnight into
early Sunday morning. Although low-level flow is not forecast to be
overly strong, a few tornadoes still appear possible both with the
initial supercells and embedded circulations within the MCS. Given observational trends and recent model guidance suggesting robust destabilization will struggle with northward extent, severe
probabilities have been confined/adjusted southward across
central/east TX into LA with this update.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough and associated strong jet will move eastward
across parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Pronounced large-scale ascent will prove favorable for thunderstorm development
along coastal WA/OR. A brief waterspout/tornado could develop/move
ashore near the immediate coast, and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible as low-topped cells move inland. Separately, parts
of southeast WA into northeast OR and ID may see isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development late this afternoon, with
occasional severe gusts possible with the more robust convection.
Weak instability forecast across both areas should keep the overall
severe threat rather isolated/marginal.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251946
SWODY1
SPC AC 251945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight from
parts of south-central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only a slight
northward adjustment of the 5% hail/wind probabilities across
portions of central/eastern TX ahead of developing convection.
Immediately downstream of these storms, temperatures have been slow
to warm, resulting in a regional minimum of buoyancy. It remains
unclear how intense convection will be along the I-20 corridor due
to the modest buoyancy, but strong deep-layer wind shear and some
degree of air mass recovery may be sufficient for an isolated
hail/wind threat. Additional thunderstorm development to the
south/southwest along the I-35 corridor remains likely by late afternoon/evening as ascent ahead of the upper trough increases.
Temperatures across the Austin/San Antonio region (and
southeastwards along the TX coast) have increased to the mid 70s to
low 80s, which is eroding lingering inhibition and supporting MLCAPE
values upwards of 1500 J/kg. As such, the current Slight risk area
continues to highlight the best convective environment with the
expectation for increasing thunderstorm coverage heading into the
evening hours. Additional forecast details outlined in the previous
discussion below remain on track.

..Moore.. 10/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025/

...South-Central/Coastal Texas into Louisiana...
Extensive convective overturning occurred overnight/early this
morning across central/east TX into LA with an MCS that has decayed
across coastal LA as of late this morning. Recent radar and visible
satellite imagery show a band of outflow arcing from south-central
LA across the northwest Gulf and into south-central TX. The degree
of destabilization that can occur today from central/east TX into LA
in the wake of this outflow remains uncertain. Cool mid-level
temperatures will persist through the period across the southern
Plains as a closed mid/upper-level low moves slowly eastward from
the TX Panhandle across OK. The best potential for weak to locally
moderate instability to develop this afternoon may exist over
portions of central into southeast TX, where some cloud breaks are
noted and generally mid 60s surface dewpoints are still in place.

Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms to redevelop
this afternoon along a secondary outflow boundary extending across
central into east/coastal TX, as ascent associated with a 40-50+ kt
mid-level jet rounding the base of the upper trough/low overspreads
this area. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support
supercells with this initial activity. Large hail may occur with any
sustained supercell. With time this evening, outflow interactions
should encourage another MCS to develop across southeast TX and
vicinity. Scattered damaging winds should become a greater concern
as this MCS develops eastward across parts of LA overnight into
early Sunday morning. Although low-level flow is not forecast to be
overly strong, a few tornadoes still appear possible both with the
initial supercells and embedded circulations within the MCS. Given observational trends and recent model guidance suggesting robust destabilization will struggle with northward extent, severe
probabilities have been confined/adjusted southward across
central/east TX into LA with this update.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough and associated strong jet will move eastward
across parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Pronounced large-scale ascent will prove favorable for thunderstorm development
along coastal WA/OR. A brief waterspout/tornado could develop/move
ashore near the immediate coast, and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible as low-topped cells move inland. Separately, parts
of southeast WA into northeast OR and ID may see isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development late this afternoon, with
occasional severe gusts possible with the more robust convection.
Weak instability forecast across both areas should keep the overall
severe threat rather isolated/marginal.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260052
SWODY1
SPC AC 260051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe thunderstorms may still increase overnight
across parts of central and southern Louisiana, and perhaps as early
as late evening across parts of southeastern Texas coastal areas.

...01Z Update...
As a notable short wave perturbation pivots around the southern
through eastern periphery of a mid/upper low now centered over the
south central Great Plains, modest strengthening of initially weak lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast across the northwest
Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley overnight. It appears
that this may include south to southwesterly flow increasing in
excess of 30 kts in the 850-700 mb layer across the Louisiana coast
through southwestern Mississippi after 06Z. As this occurs, forcing
for ascent, supported by at least modest low-level warm advection
beneath an increasingly divergent upper flow field overspreading the
region, may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development. In
the presence of strong deep-layer shear and a moist low-level
environment characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg,
organized convection, perhaps including supercells and an upscale
growing cluster or two, may be accompanied by a risk for severe
hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260454
SWODY1
SPC AC 260452

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COASTAL
PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the north central into eastern Gulf
coastal vicinity this morning, then mainly this evening into early
Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that strong, generally zonal mid/upper flow will be
maintained across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North
America through this period. As one significant short wave trough
emerging from this regime progresses northeast of the Canadian
Prairies toward the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes, another
is rapidly pivoting across the northern U.S. Rockies toward the
Canadian Prairies.

Downstream, amplification of mid/upper flow is already well
underway, including building ridging across parts of the Upper
Midwest through Ontario and the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity,
and consolidating/digging troughing near the northern Atlantic
coast. Models suggest that a closed cyclonic circulation may evolve
within the troughing offshore of the New England coast today through
tonight, while a short-lived anticyclonic circulation evolves within
the ridge across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. To the south of
the ridge, a low initially centered over the south central Great
Plains may slowly reform eastward across the Ozark Plateau/Mid
South, with broadly cyclonic flow to its south overspreading the
northern Gulf coast vicinity.

Beneath the confluent eastern North American regime, expansive cool
surface ridging is likely to persist, and maintain considerable
influence as far south and west as the Gulf Coast states into
southern Great Plains. However, relatively lower surface pressure
may shift east of the southern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi Valley, with perhaps a weak embedded low developing
across and east-southeastward offshore of the southeastern Louisiana
coastal plain later today through tonight.

...Northern Gulf coast...
In association with the evolving pattern, seasonably moist,
potentially unstable boundary-layer air is forecast to become
largely confined to areas near and offshore of coastal areas. A
couple of strong storms may linger from the overnight into early
morning across parts of southern Mississippi and southeastern
Louisiana. However, the latest convection allowing model output
suggests that vigorous thunderstorm development, with at least some
potential for evolving embedded mesoscale cyclonic circulations,
will mostly accompany the developing weak surface low. The
environment most conducive to this may evolve this evening into
early Monday near and offshore of the southern Alabama and western
Florida Panhandle coast.

..Kerr/Wendt.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261220
SWODY1
SPC AC 261219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today along
portions of the central Gulf Coast. The primary hazards are a
couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts. A risk for a few stronger
storms may linger tonight near the coast.

...Central Gulf Coast...
IR satellite and lightning data this morning show a linear cluster
of strong to severe thunderstorms extending northward from the
continental shelf waters northward into southeast LA and southern
MS. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows the thunderstorm activity is
located within a low-level warm conveyor to the southeast of a mid-
to upper-level cyclone over OK.

Surface observations at 12 UTC this morning show the northward
extent of rich low-level moisture (i.e., 68-72 deg F dewpoints) is
confined south of a maritime warm front that is draped
west-northwest near the LA/MS border to the east-southeast and to
the south of the FL Panhandle. A persistent fetch of southerly
low-level confluent flow off the Gulf will maintain adequate
buoyancy despite the presence of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Enlarged hodographs and moist/weakly buoyant
profiles will support intermittent supercell structure with the
stronger updrafts through the morning. An attendant risk for a
couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts will likely continue
through the morning and perhaps midday hours before a possible
waning in storm intensity later today. As the upper system over OK
this morning migrates eastward across the Ozarks, a re-invigoration
of storm intensity may occur tonight in southern AL into the FL
Panhandle. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado could develop.

Elsewhere across the Lower 48, quiescent conditions for severe
thunderstorms will prevail.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261612
SWODY1
SPC AC 261610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for a couple of tornadoes and occasional damaging gusts may
persist this afternoon through tonight across parts of coastal
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Rotating cells along/near the coast of MS/AL have a history of
producing at least a couple of tornadoes earlier this morning, with
the latest VWP from KMOB still showing favorable low-level hodograph
curvature and elongation. With time, the enhanced low-level flow
associated with an upper trough moving eastward across the lower MS
Valley should tend to become mostly displaced to the north of
ongoing convection. Still, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear
are forecast to overlap with the narrow warm sector that should
remain draped along/very near the immediate coast of southern AL and
parts of the FL Panhandle this afternoon through tonight. Brief
tornadoes will remain the primary threat with low-topped, rotating
cells that can move onshore and remain surface based. Occasional
damaging winds may also occur. Some guidance suggests that the
severe threat may persist this evening/overnight as the modest
low-level jet axis shifts eastward and greater surface dewpoints
move inland. Have therefore extended the Slight Risk eastward to
include more of southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle to account
for this possibility. The northward/inland extent of appreciable
severe risk will remain constrained by a less unstable airmass where
generally 50s surface dewpoints exist.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261955
SWODY1
SPC AC 261953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for a couple of tornadoes and occasional damaging gusts may
persist this afternoon through tonight across parts of coastal
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

...20z Update...

No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. With the
warm front slightly offshore and stronger 850 mb flow displaced to
the north, the most robust cells have remained over the Gulf this
afternoon. It does still appear that later this evening that 850
flow may increase again across the coast, with more favorable dew points/moisture moving inland and potential for a few rotating cells
to move inland. As such, have maintained the Slight Risk with this
update. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025/

...Central Gulf Coast...
Rotating cells along/near the coast of MS/AL have a history of
producing at least a couple of tornadoes earlier this morning, with
the latest VWP from KMOB still showing favorable low-level hodograph
curvature and elongation. With time, the enhanced low-level flow
associated with an upper trough moving eastward across the lower MS
Valley should tend to become mostly displaced to the north of
ongoing convection. Still, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear
are forecast to overlap with the narrow warm sector that should
remain draped along/very near the immediate coast of southern AL and
parts of the FL Panhandle this afternoon through tonight. Brief
tornadoes will remain the primary threat with low-topped, rotating
cells that can move onshore and remain surface based. Occasional
damaging winds may also occur. Some guidance suggests that the
severe threat may persist this evening/overnight as the modest
low-level jet axis shifts eastward and greater surface dewpoints
move inland. Have therefore extended the Slight Risk eastward to
include more of southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle to account
for this possibility. The northward/inland extent of appreciable
severe risk will remain constrained by a less unstable airmass where
generally 50s surface dewpoints exist.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270049
SWODY1
SPC AC 270048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST...AND NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity could still develop and impact areas
near or offshore of southern Alabama through the western Florida
Panhandle Gulf coast late this evening into the overnight hours,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...01Z...
Expansive cold surface ridging, centered to the north of the lower
Great Lakes region, is maintaining a considerable stabilizing
influence as far south and west as northern Florida through the
Texas Gulf coast and southern Great Plains. However, as broadly
cyclonic mid-level flow continues to overspread the Gulf coast
vicinity, model output indicates that an area of relatively lower
surface pressure may develop along a weak baroclinic zone across and
offshore of southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight.

Along the frontal zone downstream of the low, high resolution
ensemble output has been suggesting that the environment could
become conducive to vigorous convective development with evolving
embedded cyclonic mesoscale circulations. Based on latest
observational data, some increase in such activity still appears
possible near or offshore of coastal areas from southern Alabama
through the western Florida Panhandle tonight. But potential for
inland development with an appreciable risk for severe weather
beyond immediate coastal areas appears rather low.

Near Florida's Space Coast, coastal convergence enhanced by moist,
potentially unstable onshore easterly low-level flow has contributed
to sufficient lift to overcome mid-level inhibition. In the
presence of moderate shear beneath modest westerly mid/upper
westerlies, it appears that the environment may remain marginally
conducive to occasional evolution of supercell structures into at
least mid to late evening.

..Kerr.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270501
SWODY1
SPC AC 270500

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high will continue to
evolve northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the southern
Hudson/James Bay vicinity through this period. At the same time, it
appears that the westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific
will undergo amplification, leading to building ridging across
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and digging downstream
troughing across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies into the central Great
Plains. As this occurs, an initially slow moving downstream low may
accelerate across the Mid South into the southern Appalachians
vicinity by early Tuesday.

While this evolving regime is forecast to maintain cold surface
ridging across the eastern Canadian provinces through the Mid
Atlantic, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, it appears that
another notable surface ridge will build across the Intermountain
West and Rockies into the Great Plains, before substantive low-level
moistening occurs within modest lee surface troughing initially
across the high plains. As the leading edge of cyclonic mid-level
flow associated with the Southeastern low spreads across the south
Atlantic coast, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence offshore as
early as this afternoon. In its wake, cool/stable conditions will
be reinforced across much of the Southeast through northwestern Gulf
Basin.

...Florida...
Beneath broadly difluent, cyclonic mid/upper flow overspreading the
region, scattered thunderstorm development appears probable as a
moist boundary layer destabilizes with insolation by this afternoon.
Although some hail and gusty winds might accompany stronger
convection, potential for reaching severe limits still seems limited
due to the lack of colder air aloft, and generally modest to weak lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields/shear.

..Kerr/Wendt.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271158
SWODY1
SPC AC 271156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
A localized risk for a tornado and damaging gusts will briefly focus
over a small portion of the Florida Panhandle this morning.

...FL Panhandle...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
over western TN which is forecast to move east today and reach the
southern Appalachians tonight. A mid-level dryslot has moved into
the northeast Gulf of America early this morning and is co-located
with an 80-kt speed max at 300 mb.

In the low levels, a stationary maritime front is draped over the
southern portions of the FL Panhandle with a moisture-rich and
adequately unstable airmass along and south of the boundary.
Easterly low-level flow veering to westerly with height in the mid
levels has resulted in a wind profile supporting updraft rotation.
A couple of surface-based supercells have been observed approaching
the coast this morning with cycling mesocyclones. A few hours of
localized severe potential may develop inland over the southern
portion of the FL Panhandle through the late morning. A tornado
and/or a damaging gust or two are possible with the supercell
activity near the coast.

Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Great Plains states. Elongated hodographs over the central High
Plains may aid in the development of a stronger storm or two late
this afternoon/early evening, but storm intensity will probably
remain limited. A few storms exhibiting transient rotation may
develop over the near-shore waters to the east of the FL-GA-SC
coast, but models primarily show this activity remaining offshore
over the continental shelf/Gulf Stream.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271614
SWODY1
SPC AC 271612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening
across parts of the Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Strong to locally severe convection has moved southeast and offshore
from the Apalachicola vicinity, so the Marginal Risk has been
removed from this area. Nearly all guidance suggests this activity
will weaken as it approaches the west coast of the FL Peninsula this
afternoon and moves over cooler shelf waters. Other isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across interior
portions of the central FL Peninsula as continued strong diurnal
heating occurs over this area along/south of a stalled front. Even
though lapse rates aloft will remain modest (reference 12Z observed
sounding from TBW), weak low-level flow will veer to
west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper
levels on the southern periphery of an upper trough over the
Southeast. The forecast combination of moderate instability and
around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear may support occasional
convective organization. Isolated damaging winds appear possible
with the stronger cores as low-level lapse rates steepen through the
afternoon. These thunderstorms should move eastward and mostly
offshore through early evening before eventually weakening with the
loss of daytime heating.

...Central High Plains...
An upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies will amplify
as it ejects eastward over the northern/central Plains through the
period. Surface lee troughing should deepen this afternoon/evening
as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads
the central High Plains. However, recent visible satellite imagery
and surface observations show limited low-level moisture and broken
to widespread low clouds over this region. This should hinder the
development of any more than meager buoyancy through the
afternoon/evening. Even though some high-resolution guidance shows a
stronger thunderstorm or two developing in eastern CO/western KS,
the overall thermodynamic environment appears too marginal to
include low severe probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271955
SWODY1
SPC AC 271954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening
across parts of the Florida Peninsula.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only adjustment
was a westward expansion of 5% wind (Marginal) risk probabilities
into the Tampa Bay area. A remnant line of thunderstorms that began
in the FL Panhandle early this morning has maintained intensity as
it migrates east/southeast towards the western FL coast. KTBW
imagery shows a well-balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone,
and recent GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud-top temperatures,
indicative of a slight intensification over the past hour. Although
portions of this line have only produced 20-30 mph gusts thus far as
it makes landfall, the most intense portion of the storm may impact
near/north of the Tampa Bay area in the coming hours, warranting an
expansion of risk probabilities. For additional details, see
recently issued MCD #2189 and the previous discussion below.

..Moore.. 10/27/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025/

...Florida...
Strong to locally severe convection has moved southeast and offshore
from the Apalachicola vicinity, so the Marginal Risk has been
removed from this area. Nearly all guidance suggests this activity
will weaken as it approaches the west coast of the FL Peninsula this
afternoon and moves over cooler shelf waters. Other isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across interior
portions of the central FL Peninsula as continued strong diurnal
heating occurs over this area along/south of a stalled front. Even
though lapse rates aloft will remain modest (reference 12Z observed
sounding from TBW), weak low-level flow will veer to
west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper
levels on the southern periphery of an upper trough over the
Southeast. The forecast combination of moderate instability and
around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear may support occasional
convective organization. Isolated damaging winds appear possible
with the stronger cores as low-level lapse rates steepen through the
afternoon. These thunderstorms should move eastward and mostly
offshore through early evening before eventually weakening with the
loss of daytime heating.

...Central High Plains...
An upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies will amplify
as it ejects eastward over the northern/central Plains through the
period. Surface lee troughing should deepen this afternoon/evening
as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads
the central High Plains. However, recent visible satellite imagery
and surface observations show limited low-level moisture and broken
to widespread low clouds over this region. This should hinder the
development of any more than meager buoyancy through the
afternoon/evening. Even though some high-resolution guidance shows a
stronger thunderstorm or two developing in eastern CO/western KS,
the overall thermodynamic environment appears too marginal to
include low severe probabilities at this time.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280100
SWODY1
SPC AC 280059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms are possible in parts of South Florida and
the central High Plains into the ArkLaTex. Severe weather potential
is expected to remain low, however.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low continues to move towards the Mid-Atlantic from
the Tennessee Valley region tonight. Modest mid-level flow will
remain over parts of the Florida Peninsula, but the strongest
convection appears to be moving offshore. While additional storms
may develop this evening, the observed, weak mid-level lapse rates
from regional 00Z soundings suggest limited potential for severe
storms.

In the central High Plains, a couple of stronger storms are moving southeastward through eastern Colorado closely tied to the digging
upper-level trough. Cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer
shear could promote small hail production, but a cooling, dry
boundary layer should limit buoyancy and potential for larger hail.

As the upper-trough digs into the southern Plains into Tuesday
morning, a surface low will develop/deepen near the Red River.
Mid-level ascent and 850 mb warm advection may promote isolated to
widely scattered storms in parts of Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Shear will also be strong here as well. An occasional stronger storm
producing small hail is possible, but modest mid-level lapse rates
and elevated buoyancy should keep large hail potential low.

..Wendt.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280558
SWODY1
SPC AC 280557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from parts of the Sabine River Valley into
southeast Texas today.

...Sabine River Valley/Southeast Texas...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
today. The exit region of an associated jet streak will overspread
the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across east Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain.
A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front with surface
dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F. As surface heating takes place
during the day, moderate instability is likely to develop across
much of this airmass. Low-level convergence along and near the front
will likely result in thunderstorm development over the Ark-La-Tex
around midday. Additional storms are expected to form southwestward
into southeast Texas along and ahead of the front during the
afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across southeast Texas at 21Z have
MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This
would support an isolated supercell threat with cells that remain
discrete and that have access to the stronger instability. Any storm
that can exhibit supercell characteristics could be associated with
isolated large hail, strong to severe wind gusts, and a marginal
tornado threat.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281246
SWODY1
SPC AC 281245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA/ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon
and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
Large-scale trough amplification will steadily occur from the Great
Plains toward the Ozarks/Mid-South through tonight. A related southeastward-moving cold front will reach the Lower Mississippi
Valley by this evening, intercepting a relatively moist air mass
(mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) that will continue to advect
northward across southeast/east Texas and southern/western
Louisiana. Ample warm-sector pre-frontal heating will occur into the
afternoon particularly across east/southeast Texas, where
mixed-layer buoyancy may exceed 2000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Increasing storm development/intensification is expected into
mid/late afternoon near the advancing front, with strengthening
winds aloft (45+ kt effective shear) supportive of organized storms
including a few supercells. Any such supercells could pose a risk
for large hail, and possibly some tornado risk. Damaging winds may
also occur as storms increase/merge and spread east-southward from
far east/southeast Texas into Louisiana by early/mid-evening.
Current thinking is the overall risk will remain relatively
isolated, but subsequent outlooks will reevaluate any need for
somewhat higher probabilities on a sub-regional basis.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281631
SWODY1
SPC AC 281629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon
and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
An upper-level trough will move southeast, evolving into an upper
low over the central Plains today as an associated cold front moves
southeast across East TX/ArkLaTex region this afternoon and tonight.
Despite overall modest mid-level lapse rates, a corridor of 60s
surface dew points (locally higher over southeast TX), combined with
daytime heating, will contribute to MLCAPE averaging 1500-2000 J/kg
this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase in coverage this
afternoon as the cold front intersects the greater instability and
height falls provide large-scale ascent. Strengthening low/mid-level
flow with the approaching trough will result in shear profiles
supportive of organized storms including supercell structures,
evolving into clusters or linear segments this evening before
weakening late tonight. Any more sustained supercell will have some
tornado potential given favorably curved low-level hodographs,
primarily within the Slight Risk area added with this update.
Otherwise, isolated instances of severe hail or strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible.

..Bunting/Barnes.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281954
SWODY1
SPC AC 281953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon
and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...20z Update...
No updates are needed to the Day 1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorms
are developing along and ahead of the eastward moving cold front in
Texas. These are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon/evening. See MCD#2192 for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025/

...East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
An upper-level trough will move southeast, evolving into an upper
low over the central Plains today as an associated cold front moves
southeast across East TX/ArkLaTex region this afternoon and tonight.
Despite overall modest mid-level lapse rates, a corridor of 60s
surface dew points (locally higher over southeast TX), combined with
daytime heating, will contribute to MLCAPE averaging 1500-2000 J/kg
this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase in coverage this
afternoon as the cold front intersects the greater instability and
height falls provide large-scale ascent. Strengthening low/mid-level
flow with the approaching trough will result in shear profiles
supportive of organized storms including supercell structures,
evolving into clusters or linear segments this evening before
weakening late tonight. Any more sustained supercell will have some
tornado potential given favorably curved low-level hodographs,
primarily within the Slight Risk area added with this update.
Otherwise, isolated instances of severe hail or strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290038
SWODY1
SPC AC 290036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of hail, marginally severe wind
gusts, and an isolated tornado risk will be possible early this
evening across far southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...Western Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the
southern Plains, with strong westerly flow in place over much of the
Southeast. At the surface, a front is moving southeastward across
far southeast Texas and northwest Louisiana. Ahead of the front, a
moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s and
lower 70s F. This is contributing to weak instability along a
relatively narrow axis just ahead of the front. Widely-spaced strong
storms are ongoing just to the east of this moist axis, with the
most organized convection located in southwest Louisiana. The Lake
Charles 00Z sounding has a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear
in the 50 to 55 knot range. Directional shear is present in the low
to mid-levels and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is 175 m2/s2. This
could support a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two.
Supercells may also be capable of producing isolated large hail
and/or wind damage, but the threat is expected to become more
isolated and marginal as instability decreases across the region
over the next couple of hours.

..Broyles.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290539
SWODY1
SPC AC 290538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across parts of eastern
North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Eastern North Carolina/Southeast Virginia...
A mid-level low will move into the Tennessee Valley today, as a jet
streak in the base of the system translates through the Gulf Coast
states. Diffluent mid-level flow associated with the exit region of
the jet will overspread the southern Atlantic Coastal states
Wednesday evening. The core of the jet will move eastward across the
Carolinas Wednesday night. In response, a low will develop over
southern North Carolina after midnight, moving northeastward into
eastern North Carolina by early Thursday morning. Low-level
convergence near the surface low and large-scale ascent along the
eastern edge of the mid-level jet streak will provide support for
isolated thunderstorm development. In addition to the strong flow
aloft, a jet max near 850 mb will translate eastward across eastern
North Carolina and eastern Virginia late in the period.
Thunderstorms that develop in proximity to the low-level jet could
mix the stronger winds to the surface, resulting in an isolated
wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291241
SWODY1
SPC AC 291239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Eastern North Carolina/Southeast Virginia...
Pronounced large-scale trough amplification will occur through late
tonight and early Thursday over the Eastern States, centered over
the Tennessee Valley/Cumberland Plateau. A strong polar jet in
association with this trough will develop toward/east of the
Appalachians tonight, with steady surface cyclogenesis occurring
particularly late tonight toward the central Appalachians/Blue Ridge
vicinity, with the 00z ECMWF continuing to exhibit a somewhat
stronger surface low as compared to other global guidance.

Low-level moistening will occur near the coast late tonight
including coastal portions of North Carolina and Outer Banks,
northward into southeast Virginia and Delmarva vicinity. Modestly
increasing potential for mostly elevated convection/isolated
lightning flashes will occur over inland parts of the region, but
some near-surface based storms could materialize near the immediate
coast, particularly if/where surface dewpoints approach 60 F late
tonight and early Thursday. Limited buoyancy even for near-coastal
areas should limit the overall magnitude/likelihood of the severe
storm potential. However, a couple of locally severe storms could
materialize in the presence of supercell-supportive deep-layer shear
(effective magnitudes 45+ kt) and moderately enlarged low-level
hodographs, with related potential for localized wind damage and/or
a brief tornado.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291621
SWODY1
SPC AC 291619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Eastern NC/VA Tidewater region tonight...
No changes to the previous outlook. A deep midlevel trough and
associated 100+ kt midlevel jet will progress from the MS Valley
this morning to the TN Valley this evening and the southern
Appalachians overnight. Surface cyclogenesis in association with
this trough will help draw the (currently offshore) moist sector
inland across eastern NC and the VA Tidewater region by tonight.
Surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F and dewpoints increase
into the mid-upper 60s, which will be sufficient for weak buoyancy
rooted near the surface. Hodograph length/curvature will favor some
potential for rotating storms, with a low-end wind damage and/or
tornado threat.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291954
SWODY1
SPC AC 291952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest surface observations across the NC Tidewater region show
winds becoming more easterly with dewpoints rising as moisture is
slowly advected inland. This trend should continue through tonight
and help promote buoyancy late tonight/early Thursday morning as the
surface cyclone (currently over eastern TN) shifts northeast. See
the previous discussion for additional details.

..Moore.. 10/29/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025/

...Eastern NC/VA Tidewater region tonight...
No changes to the previous outlook. A deep midlevel trough and
associated 100+ kt midlevel jet will progress from the MS Valley
this morning to the TN Valley this evening and the southern
Appalachians overnight. Surface cyclogenesis in association with
this trough will help draw the (currently offshore) moist sector
inland across eastern NC and the VA Tidewater region by tonight.
Surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F and dewpoints increase
into the mid-upper 60s, which will be sufficient for weak buoyancy
rooted near the surface. Hodograph length/curvature will favor some
potential for rotating storms, with a low-end wind damage and/or
tornado threat.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300014
SWODY1
SPC AC 300012

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...01z Update...

Earlier thoughts regarding severe thunderstorm potential tonight
remain.

Exit region of a strong 500mb speed max will shift into the western Mid-Atlantic region late tonight as the midlevel jet translates
across the southern Appalachians into central NC by 30/12z. Weak
surface low, currently off the NC Coast, will be drawn inland and
low-level moisture/instability are expected to increase enough to
support robust updrafts. Large-scale forcing is expected to aid this development, but convection should be focused ahead of the front
late tonight. Low probabilities for wind and tornadoes continue.

..Darrow.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300521
SWODY1
SPC AC 300520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic.

...Middle Atlantic...

Seasonally strong upper low over eastern TN is beginning to eject
northeast, partly in response to an upstream speed max digging
southeast across the northern High Plains. This lead low will
advance into WV by 18z before moving into upstate NY by the end of
the period. Favorable high-level diffluence/large-scale ascent will
encourage a surface low to be drawn north-northwest across the
Middle Atlantic to a position near the MD/PA border by mid day. This
track will permit higher theta-e air mass to overspread eastern
VA/Delmarva into southeast PA such that buoyancy will become
supportive of deep convection.

Early-day shear will prove strongest across the Middle Atlantic as
LLJ will be focused across eastern MD into central PA. LLJ will
shift quickly north into NY by 18z along with more focused low-level
warm advection. Prior to this, forecast soundings exhibit strongly
sheared environment with adequate instability for thunderstorms.
While the maximum SBCAPE should peak near 500-600 J/kg, a few robust
updrafts are possible given the strength of the wind fields.
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms, possibly supercells, may
generate damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Greatest risk
is between sunrise and 21z.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301242
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur across the Mid-Atlantic states/Delmarva vicinity today.

...Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva...
The upper trough centered over the Cumberland Plateau/central
Appalachians will continue northeastward today toward the Northeast,
with the exit region of a strong polar jet similarly spreading from
the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians toward the Northeast. Beneath
diffluent flow aloft, a surface low will continue to deepen from the
Blue Ridge/Delmarva north-northeastward toward southeast/east New
York by tonight, with a northward-flux of a seasonally moist air
mass (low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints) along the immediate
coast/I-95 general vicinity.

This low-level moisture/modest buoyancy will continue to
semi-interface with a northward-transitioning low-level jet across
the Mid-Atlantic, with strong low-level shear/SRH accentuated by
backed (southeasterly) near-surface winds to the east of the surface
low track. This scenario could yield a few supercells, including
related potential for locally damaging winds and/or a tornado today.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/30/2025

$$

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