ABNT20 KNHC 101133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located north of the northern Leeward Islands, and on
Subtropical Storm Karen, located over the north Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 111146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located over the southwestern Atlantic about midway
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 121139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 131125
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 161126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 162357
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic
is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the
system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and
enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently developing several
hundred miles to the south of of Nova Scotia, Canada. This system is
expected to drop southeastward and then turn northeastward by this
weekend, and some subtropical or tropical development could occur
while the system moves over the Gulf Stream to the northeast of
Bermuda. By early next week, the system will move further
northeastward into colder waters, ending its chances for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 171138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the
Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the
Caribbean Sea much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located well off the coast of
the Northeast United States. There is a slight chance that the
system could develop some subtropical characteristics during the
weekend before it turns northeastward over cooler waters by early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 191144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system
moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next
day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system
is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during
the middle portion of the week, where environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could
from over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portion
of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms primarily east of
the wave axis. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards
the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slowdown over the next
few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is
likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and
Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the
ABC Islands during the next couple of days. For more information on
this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 211126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the area
of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea appears to be
developing a well-defined center, and is already producing winds up
to 45 mph. A tropical storm is expected to form later today while
it slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the
next day or two. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and
Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk
of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this
week. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
the system later today. For additional information on this system,
including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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