ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN...THE CO PLATEAU...AND THE NC OUTER BANKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon
into the evening across the eastern Great Basin and the Colorado
Plateau. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Eastern Great Basin and the CO Plateau...
A broad upper trough will move east across the West as a basal
shortwave impulse ejects across the Great Basin during Saturday
afternoon and evening. This evolution will yield a swath of
strengthening mid/upper-level southwesterlies. This will be
favorably timed with peak surface heating across the eastern Great
Basin into parts of the CO Plateau.

In the wake of weak morning convection across parts of AZ across the
Four Corners, scattered to widespread convection will occur in the
afternoon along/ahead of the sharpening Pacific cold front as it
pushes east. While MLCAPE will remain weak, owing to progressively
poorer mid-level lapse rates with southeast extent and cooler
surface temperatures/dew points to the northwest, strengthening
deep-layer speed shear will yield elongation of a fairly
straight-line hodograph. A few supercells are likely, although the
weak mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy should support primarily a
marginal severe hail threat. A tornado is possible in the Four
Corners vicinity where boundary-layer moisture is greater. Given the
degree of convective coverage, upscale growth into
clusters/short-line segments should occur, fostering potential for
sporadic severe gusts into early/mid-evening across the CO Plateau.

...NC Outer Banks...
Morning NCEP guidance has trended closer to the coast with the
evolution of a gradually deepening surface cyclone off the South
Atlantic coast. This may result in the surface warm front advancing
across the Outer Banks between 06-12Z Sunday, with a conditionally
supportive environment for a surface-based supercell. While the bulk
of surface-based convection should remain confined offshore through
the period, there's enough signal to warrant a low-probability
threat of a brief tornado/severe gust.

..Grams.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110536
SWODY2
SPC AC 110535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the U.S. Sunday or
Sunday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a low will move northeastward along the southern
Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday, as a ridge remains in place over the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough will move
northeastward from the central Rockies into the northern Plains.
Thunderstorms will be possible near the eastern seaboard low and
ahead of the north-central U.S. trough. Instability is forecast to
remain weak in these two areas, suggesting that a severe threat will
be unlikely. Additional non-severe storms will develop in parts of
the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., no severe threat is expected to develop Sunday or
Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111653
SWODY2
SPC AC 111652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm risk appears negligible on Sunday into Sunday night.

...East...
A surface cyclone near the coastal Carolinas at 12Z Sunday should
gradually fill as it drifts north, offshore of the Lower
Mid-Atlantic. Convection should primarily segregate into two
corridors of weak elevated activity. One near the quasi-stationary
mid-level low centered in eastern SC and the other in the offshore
low-level warm conveyor that will sustain weakening convection
approaching the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England coast. Largely
poor lapse rates will limit instability/MUCAPE and thunder coverage.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning ahead of
the shortwave trough impinging on the northwest ND/far northeast MT
vicinity. Isolated elevated storms are also possible across parts of
the Upper Midwest within the downstream low-level warm conveyor on
Sunday. This will be characterized by weak MUCAPE/mid-level lapse
rates with convection subsiding by Sunday night.

...Southwest...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are most probable across southern
AZ into southwest NM. Weak lapse rates above a relatively shallow
mixed boundary layer will limit convective vigor. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are also possible Sunday night into early morning
Monday both northward to the Four Corners and eastward in the
Southern Plains.

...Pacific Northwest...
A shortwave trough digging south along the Pacific Northwest coast
will aid in sufficient forcing for ascent and steepening of
mid-level lapse rates for an isolated thunderstorm risk on Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night.

..Grams.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120550
SWODY2
SPC AC 120548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Monday across parts of far west Texas and southern New
Mexico.

...Far West Texas/Southern New Mexico...
A mid-level low will move southward adjacent to the immediate West
Coast on Monday, as southwesterly flow remains established from the southwestern U.S. into the north-central states. At the surface, a
moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 50s to near 60 F will be
in place from southern Arizona eastward into southern New Mexico and
far West Texas. As surface temperatures warm, an axis of instability
is forecast to develop from far west Texas northward into southern
New Mexico. Thunderstorms that develop near this axis of instability
may obtain a marginal severe threat during the mid to late
afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur within the stronger cores.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121724
SWODY2
SPC AC 121723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the
Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos on Monday
afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible on
Monday night along the south-central portion of coastal California.

...Southwest...
A mid/upper low will drop south along the OR coast towards the Bay
Area through the period. A broadening swath of 50+ kt 500-mb
southwesterlies will envelop much of southern CA to the eastern
Great Basin and CO Plateau by late afternoon. This strengthening
deep-layer flow regime will conditionally support lower-end
mid-level updraft rotation. Despite a seasonably moist air mass
across the Southwest, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit MLCAPE.
Morning clouds/rain will also curtail diabatic surface heating. But
scattered to widespread thunderstorms should develop during the
afternoon from eastern AZ to the Four Corners vicinity. Isolated and
marginal severe hail/wind appear possible. Convection farther
southeast into the TX Trans-Pecos should increase into early
evening, where a strong to marginal severe storm is possible.

...South-central coastal CA...
An intense mid-level jetlet will impinge on the southern CA coast
Monday night, to the south of the aforementioned northern CA low.
Some morning CAM guidance indicates potential for a low-topped
convective band in the left-exit region of this jetlet. While
mid-level lapse rates may remain insufficient for charge separation,
strong lower-level winds coinciding with the band could be
convectively mixed to the surface and foster locally damaging winds.

..Grams.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130556
SWODY2
SPC AC 130555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR WEST TEXAS...NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of far west Texas and New Mexico
from mid afternoon into the early evening. An isolated tornado and
wind-damage threat will be possible around midday Tuesday along the
coast in southern California.

...Far West Texas/New Mexico...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the central U.S. on Tuesday,
as a low moves eastward across central California. Southwesterly
flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest into the southern
and central Rockies. Along the southeastern periphery of the
stronger flow, an axis of instability will be in place by Tuesday
afternoon from far west Texas northward into central and
northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm during the day
near the instability axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain and spread northeastward into the lower
elevations. Near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability combined with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough
for a marginal severe threat from mid afternoon into early evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Southern California Coast...
A mid-level low will move across central California on Tuesday, as
an associated trough moves inland across southern California.
Thunderstorm development will likely take place near the trough,
along a focused band of large-scale ascent. The storms will form
near the axis of 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet, which will contribute
to strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings along the coast from
Los Angeles to San Diego around midday on Tuesday have 0-6 km shear
near 80 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 150 to 250
m2/s2 range. This could be enough for a marginal tornado and
wind-damage threat, mainly with low-topped rotating storms that move
inland.

..Broyles.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131710
SWODY2
SPC AC 131708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO...AND COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts New Mexico from late afternoon into
the evening. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be
possible Tuesday morning through midday along the coast in southern
California.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will fill as it moves from central CA into NV on
Tuesday. A midlevel speed max will move into southern CA early in
the day, nosing northeastward into southern UT into Wednesday. Cold temperatures aloft will exist on the north side of the jet, which
will favor scattered daytime convection due to heating.

Ahead of this system, and west of a southern Plains ridge, southerly
winds will maintain a plume of moisture across much of NM and into
CO. As this area will be well east of the upper low, temperatures
aloft will remain relatively warm.

...Coastal Southern CA...
A band of rain and thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing Tuesday
morning along a cold front, extending well offshore. This arcing
line of convection will be supported by very cold temperatures aloft
north of the midlevel speed max, with SBCAPE values of a couple
hundred J/kg. Although low-topped, sufficient buoyancy in the
low-levels combined with veering winds with height and organization
along a boundary may result in isolated severe weather, with
damaging gusts and perhaps a brief/weak tornado. This convection
will likely be strongest from morning to midday, eventually
weakening across southern parts of the Marginal Risk area as that
portion of the front interacts with warmer temperatures aloft.

...NM...
Instability will gradually increase through late afternoon within
the theta-e plume with persistent southerly flow. It appears the
primary risk will occur late in the day/evening, as full
destabilization is persisted into the night due to the established
moist plume. Subtle height falls may occur late, and several CAMs
suggest nocturnal development with storms racing northward across
central portions of NM. Given robust shear profiles, a few storms
could contain marginal hail or gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140547
SWODY2
SPC AC 140546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains Wednesday evening
into the overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few
marginally severe wind gusts may also occur.

...Central and Northern Plains...
On Wednesday at mid-levels, a ridge will move slowly eastward across
the central U.S., as a low moves east-northeastward across the
Intermountain West. Between these two features, strong southwesterly
flow will be in place, as a jet streak moves northeastward across
the Four Corners region. At the surface, a low will deepen across
northeastern Colorado, as a warm front advances northward across the
central High Plains. Along the front, surface dewpoints from 55 to
60 F will contribute to destabilization in the late afternoon and
early evening. A pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range is
forecast across much of western Nebraska and far southwest South
Dakota. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves across the
central High Plains during the evening, large-scale ascent and
deep-layer shear will support scattered strong thunderstorm
development. A marginal severe threat appears likely with hail and a
few severe wind gusts possible. The threat could persist into the
overnight period across parts of western and central South Dakota.

...Southern Rockies...
A mid-level low will move east-northeastward across the
Intermountain West on Wednesday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot jet
streak translates northeastward through the Desert Southwest. Ahead
of the jet, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by
afternoon from west-central New Mexico into far southern Colorado.
As the core of the jet streak passes through the Four Corners region
during the late afternoon and early evening, large-scale ascent will
aid the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and
near the instability axis. The instability along with moderate
deep-layer shear associated with the jet streak will likely support
a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and evening. Hail
and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141717
SWODY2
SPC AC 141715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains Wednesday evening
into the overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few
marginally severe wind gusts may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough over the West will slowly push east toward the
Rockies as an upper ridge moves from the Plains toward the MS
Valley. The upper low within this trough will weaken as it moves
across UT and into WY. The leading upper speed max will extend from
northern AZ into UT early Wednesday, and will affect parts of NM,
CO, and WY overnight.

At the surface, low pressure will develop during the afternoon from
central WY into northeast CO, and this low will move eastward into
the northern Plains overnight. A warm front will extend east near
the SD/NE border, and will surge north overnight as a 50 kt
low-level jet develops. Southerly winds south of this warm front
should bring 50s F dewpoints northward into the region, allowing for
marginal instability to develop.

To the south, a plume of low to midlevel moisture will remain from
NM into CO, with a minimal surface trough across western to central
NM supporting ascent beneath increasing southwest winds aloft.

...Central to northern High Plains...
Conditions will destabilize quickly during the afternoon as heating
occurs along with northwestward advection of 50s F dewpoints.
Indications are that storms will form within a narrow uncapped zone
from northeast CO into eastern WY. Strong deep-layer shear and
sufficient MUCAPE over 500 J/kg will favor hail production in the
strongest cells. At this time, it appears coverage of severe will be
isolated.

...NM...
Storms are most likely to develop over central to northern NM during
the afternoon, with peak heating and within a moist upslope flow
regime. Early day rain/thunderstorms may delay destabilization
somewhat, but at least isolated strong storms will be possible. Wind
profiles will be veering with height, and deep-layer effective shear
will be near 50 kt. As such, cellular storm mode is most likely,
with a few reports of hail over 1.00" possible.

..Jewell.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150534
SWODY2
SPC AC 150532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level low will move into the northern High Plains on Thursday,
as southwest flow remains over much of the central U.S. At the
surface, a low will deepen ahead of a cold front moving
southeastward across eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm
ahead of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop
from eastern New Mexico into far eastern Colorado and far northwest
Kansas. By mid afternoon on Thursday, MLCAPE is expected to reach
near 1000 J/kg along this axis, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates
peaking in the 7 to 8 C/km Range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is
forecast to around 50 knots. This should support a potential for
isolated large hail with relatively high-based rotating storms. The
threat is expected to diminish in the evening as the cold front
undercuts most of the convection.

..Broyles.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151703
SWODY2
SPC AC 151701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough over the West will lift northeastward across the
Rockies, with warming aloft across the Southwest. An embedded upper
low will move across WY and into ND, with the leading midlevel speed
max moving from CO into the Dakotas.

At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas,
western NE, and across northeast CO through late afternoon, with a
surface low deepening over the eastern Dakotas. A secondary low is
also expected over southeast CO.

Moisture return across the Plains will be limited by relatively dry trajectories, as an extensive surface ridge remains from the Great
Lakes into the Gulf. However, at least mid 50s F dewpoints appear
likely into the frontal zone, supporting marginal destabilization.

Heating and low-level lapse rates will be the strongest over the
central High Plains, with the most favorable instability for diurnal
storms in this region as well. MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range
appear likely at peak heating, with scattered cells developing
during the afternoon. Veering winds with height as well as
deep-layer effective shear over 50 kt may support a few supercells
producing hail over 1.00" diameter within a narrow zone.

Farther north, elevated instability will be maintained across the
northern Plains due to a broad area of 30-50 kt south/southwest
winds at 850 mb. Colder temperatures aloft over the northern High
Plains could support small non/severe hail at times as activity
develops ahead of the vorticity maximum.

..Jewell.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160538
SWODY2
SPC AC 160536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from Friday evening through the overnight period
from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the central Rockies on
Friday, as southwest flow remains in place over much of the Great
Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the central Plains, as moisture advection continues ahead of
the front. Surface dewpoints near the boundary are expected to reach
the lower 60s F by Friday afternoon, which will contribute to weak destabilization from western Oklahoma northeastward into northwest
Missouri. Forecast soundings near the instability axis have MLCAPE
peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range during the evening. In
addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range
along much of the front. The resulting environment could support
supercells with isolated large hail if discrete mode is favored.
However, lapse are expected to remain weak suggesting any severe
potential will remain marginal. A few severe wind gusts may occur as
low-level flow increases ahead of the front during the evening. With instability and deep-layer shear being sustained through the night,
a marginal severe threat should persist through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 10/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161641
SWODY2
SPC AC 161639

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from Friday evening through the overnight period
from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move northeast out of the northern Plains Friday,
with a positive-tilt trough extending southwestward across the
central Plains and into the Southwest. This trough will move slowly
eastward through the period, with a belt of southwest midlevel winds
increasing to 50 kt by Saturday morning over MO, KS and northern OK.

At the surface, a trough/wind shift will extend roughly from western
WI into central KS at 00Z, with 50s F dewpoints along and ahead of
it. Daytime heating near the boundary will yield 500 to perhaps 1000
J/kg MUCAPE, with deep-layer effective shear near 35 kt at 00Z.
Convergence near the boundary should support scattered thunderstorms
late in the day within the narrow uncapped zone from northwest OK
across KS and into northern MO/IA. Forecast soundings depict poor
lapse rates aloft, which will limit storm coverage and severity. But
marginal hail or gusts may occur with the strongest cells.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170601
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the central US is forecast to deepen
throughout Saturday as several peripheral shortwave features
coalesce over the central MS Valley. The most prominent of these
features will start the period over the southern Rockies before
phasing with the broader trough across the southern Plains Saturday
night. A powerful 100+ kt mid-level jet exiting the central
Rockies/High Plains will round the base of the consolidated trough
helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over the OH Valley and Lower
Great Lakes. A cold front with strong southerly flow ahead of it
will sweep eastward from the OH/MS Valleys into the Mid South
overnight supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms.

...Ohio Valley to the Ozarks...
Mid-level ascent with an embedded perturbation will expand over the
slow-moving cold front initially positioned from the Ozarks to the
Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley early Saturday. Southerly flow will
allow for substantial moistening as low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints move northward across MO/IL, into western KY and OH and
eventually Lower MI. Continued low-level warm advection should
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms along the front by mid
afternoon into the evening. While buoyancy should be limited
(500-1000 J/kg) owing to increasing storm coverage and cloud cover,
elongated mid/upper-level hodographs with largely unidirectional
shear will favor some potential for organized short line segments.
This activity should generally become more organized into the
afternoon/evening as the cold front strengthens and surges eastward
as the upper trough and surface low organize. This will support a
risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes
should a more coherent QLCS develop and persist overnight.

...Southern Plains to the Mid MS Valley...
Ahead of the primary southern stream shortwave trough, rich
low-level moisture will advect northward across parts of TX/OK into
the central and lower MS Valley. While some potential exists for
early morning convection to modulate the environment, current
guidance suggests diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE ~ 2000 J/kg) is
likely ahead of surface trough trailing the developing low farther
north. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the
afternoon from northern AR into eastern OK and North TX with the
potential for supercell structures capable of damaging gusts and
hail initially.

With time, the surface cold front over the southern Plains should
begin to surge eastward as the advancing shortwave trough phases
with the strengthening upper trough. Vertical shear will increase
substantially as the mid-level jet streak noses into the Mid South
fostering strong low-level mass response. The cold front will likely
outpace and overtake the surface trough and ongoing convection
supporting rapid upscale growth into a squall line across the
central MS Valley Saturday evening into the early overnight hours.
While uncertainty about the degree of instability given the
overnight timing remains, strengthening low-level wind fields and
mid 60s F dewpoints may delay boundary-layer decoupling long enough
to support a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat overnight as
the QLCS moves eastward.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171733
SWODY2
SPC AC 171731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move rapidly eastward across TX
and OK during the day, as a stronger wave digs into the central
Plains. These features will merge Saturday night as the upper trough
crosses the MS River, with a large area of height falls and
strengthening winds aloft expanding across the OH/TN Valley into
Sunday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch roughly from the upper MS
Valley southwestward into northern OK at 18Z, with a plume of mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints already in place from eastern TX into OK and
possibly southeast KS/southwest MO. After 00Z, the cold front will
accelerate eastward, stretching from western OH into northern MS/LA
and into southeast TX.

The combination of increasing large-scale ascent as well as a
sufficiently unstable air mass with strong deep-layer shear should
result in widely scattered strong to severe storms beginning around
midday and persisting into the overnight hours.

...Eastern OK and TX into the Middle to Lower MS Valley...
A complex forecast scenario exists on Saturday with potential for
early day rain and thunderstorms, and uncertainties regarding
destabilization. In general, hail is possible over western areas,
with an increasing damaging wind threat farther east late.

Storms are likely to develop by midday ahead of the southern wave
with lift overspreading the moist plume. Cell producing hail appear
likely from northeast TX and OK, and also from northern AR into
southern MO within the moist plume. A few supercells will be
possible with 40+ kt deep-layer shear and stronger low-level shear.

Later in the afternoon and evening as the cold front overtakes the
air mass, an elongated area of storms with wind damage potential is
forecast, and this will push across the lower MS Valley. A tornado
or two may occur from LA into AR, though instability will become the
limiting factor farther east overnight.

..OH Valley/Midwest...
As the upper trough and surface low deepen overnight, wind fields
and shear profiles will increase ahead of the cold front. A forced
line of convection is possible across this region as dewpoints
remain in the lower 60s, and 850 mb winds increase to over 50 kt.
This could result in nocturnal damaging gusts or a QLCS tornado over
southeast IL, IN, northern KY and perhaps far western OH prior to
12Z.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur on Sunday into Sunday evening from
parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic
regions. Additional isolated severe storms are possible over the
Gulf Coast early Sunday.

...OH Valley into the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic...
A broad but strong upper trough over the central US early Sunday is
forecast to continue intensifying as it moves quickly eastward into
the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. Ascent from the trough and a
90+ kt mid-level jet streak will deepen a surface low over Lower MI,
forecast to move north/northeastward into southern Canada during the
day. Trailing the low, a cold front over central OH and into KY and
TN will race eastward into the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic by
Sunday evening.

Shallow convection is likely to be ongoing ahead of the front from
eastern MI into OH/KY at the start of the forecast period. Cloud
cover and weak low-level moisture advection (50s F dewpoints) will
support very weak destabilization ahead of the cold front. Still,
the strong ascent (12 hr H5 GPH change of -180 to -200m) will help
force a shallow convective band along the cold front as it moves
eastward. While little to no lightning is expected, strong low and
mid-level winds across much of the northeastern CONUS may allow for
isolated damaging gusts with this low-topped convection.

...Gulf Coast..
Farther south, scattered storms should be ongoing at 12z along the
front over southern AL/MS and LA. Low 70s F dewpoints should support
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE amidst moderately strong veering wind
profiles. This will support some storm organization of short line
segments or transient supercells. Damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two are possible before storms move offshore by midday.

Subsidence on the southern edge of the upper trough will then
overspread the remnant moist and weakly unstable air mass over
eastern AL into GA and the southern Appalachians Sunday afternoon.
While isolated storms will remain possible along the cold front
where weak buoyancy can develop, most guidance shows convection
weakening through the remainder of Sunday.

..Lyons.. 10/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181714
SWODY2
SPC AC 181712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur on Sunday into early Monday from
parts of the central Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coastal
regions. Additional isolated severe storms are possible over the
Gulf Coast early Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the MS Valley will shift east/northeast on
Sunday, overspreading much of the Midwest and TN Valley, and
becoming oriented from western NY to the Mid-Atlantic coast by
Monday morning. Strong flow aloft, with an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet
streak will overspread portions of the central Appalachians to the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Around 40-50 kt 850 mb south/southwesterly flow
also is expected to spread east from the Gulf Coast and Ohio Valley
to the Atlantic coast through the period.

At the surface, the primary cyclone over Lower MI will lift
northeast into Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing surface trough
and cold front extending southward to the central Gulf Coast. The
front will develop east/southeast, and move offshore the Atlantic
coast by the end of the period, with the southern extent of the
front arcing southwestward into the northern FL Peninsula. Richer
boundary layer moisture will remain confined to the Gulf
Coast/Southeast states though peak heating, with some greater
northward moisture transport into the Mid-Atlantic coast after 00z.

...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic...

Boundary layer moisture will remain limited, with dewpoints
generally only reaching into the 50s, with some 60s possible closer
the Chesapeake Bay and Mid-Atlantic coast vicinity during the evening/overnight. Poor low/mid-level lapse rate also are forecast,
largely limiting instability to less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE.
Furthermore, convection developing along the eastward-advancing cold
front will be low-topped, generally below 3 km deep. Nevertheless,
convective showers could enhance surface gusts given 40-50 kt flow
in the 850-700 mb layer. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph will be possible
with stronger convective elements.

...Gulf Coast...

Strong to isolated severe storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday
morning across AL and the western FL Panhandle near the
eastward-progressing surface cold front and within a 40-50 kt 850 mb
low-level jet lifting to the northeast. Strong gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible with storms through around midday/early
afternoon. Thereafter, large-scale ascent will become increasing
displaced to the northeast. Vertical shear and thermodynamic
profiles become less favorable with eastward extent across GA and
northern FL as well, limiting the eastward extent of the severe
risk.

..Leitman.. 10/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190558
SWODY2
SPC AC 190556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
A strong negative tilt mid-level trough is forecast to move over the
Northeast early Monday as a second upper trough deepens over the
Great Lakes. Strong ascent from these features will support surface cyclogenesis over the Saint Lawrence Valley and the upper Midwest.
This will result in increased south/southwesterly low-level flow
ahead of a surface cold front sweeping across southern New England.
A second cold front will also move southeast across the Plains and
Midwest with strong high pressure behind it. Showers and some
low-topped thunderstorms are possible early Monday along the surging
cold front across coastal New England. Otherwise, isolated
thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes and over south
Florida, but severe storm potential is limited.

...Southern New England...
Strong forcing from the upper trough and fast-moving cold front will
help force a shallow convective band along the front late Sunday
into early Monday across the Mid Atlantic and southern New England.
With little to no diurnal heating and only shallow moisture
expected, any destabilization ahead of this convective band should
be minimal (SBCAPE less than 300 J/kg). Most model guidance shows
very thin cape profiles rooted just above the surface with poor
low-level lapse rates over southern NY into MA/CT and RI. While some
lightning and a sporadic strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with
an locally stronger line segments, especially near the coast Monday
morning; uncertainty on storm organization and sufficient
surface-based destabilization suggests a severe risk is currently
unlikely. Low-topped storms will remain possible beneath the upper
trough over New England through the afternoon as the surface low
occludes, but with an increasingly narrow surface-based warm sector
and very weak instability.

..Lyons.. 10/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191712
SWODY2
SPC AC 191711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will lift northeast across New England on Monday. At
the same time, a surface low will develop east across Quebec with a
trailing surface front moving across New England. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning along the front
within a warm advection regime. Southeasterly low-level flow will
support a narrow warm sector across the region, though instability
will remain muted given poor lapse rates. Still, strong mid/upper
flow could foster gusty winds as the front moves across New England
through early afternoon, though severe potential will remain low.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible further south across FL
where the southern extent of the New England surface front will arc southwestward across the FL Peninsula. A moist boundary layer and
modest instability may support isolated thunderstorms during peak
heating, but weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential.

Further west, another upper trough will move across the Plains to
the MS Valley. In tandem with the upper system, a surface front will
sweep across the Plains into the Midwest. Given a prior cold front
passage, the airmass will remain dry and thunderstorm activity along
the front will be limited. Cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient
for a lightning flash or two across the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes
vicinity, but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10
percent.

..Leitman.. 10/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200551
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South
Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper low initially over the Midwest will continue to
intensify as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast Tuesday. As the upper low deepens, so too will a surface
low over the Great Lakes. Residual surface moisture and cool
mid-level temperatures beneath the upper low will likely support
some weak buoyancy as lapse rates steepen through the day. With
strong lift overspreading the weakly unstable air mass, isolated
low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes and
upper OH Valley Tuesday afternoon.

Trailing the surface low, a cold front will sweep southeastward with strengthening surface high pressure behind it over the central US.
Offshore winds will limit available moisture and buoyancy for much
of the country. The exception will be across portions of the
Northwest Gulf Coast and southern FL. Here, rich low-level moisture
will allow for moderate diurnal destabilization. Still, weak forcing
displaced to the north suggests only isolated thunderstorm coverage.
Weak vertical shear and warm mid-level temperatures should limit
severe potential.

..Lyons.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201641
SWODY2
SPC AC 201640

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South
Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Organized
severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...MI/OH...
A deep and cold upper low will track across the Great Lakes region
on Tuesday, with the primary surface cold front sweeping eastward
across the upper OH Valley. Model guidance is in agreement of a
shortwave trough rotating around the base of the upper low Tuesday
afternoon. Daytime heating in the post-frontal air mass ahead of
this trough, combined with steep lapse rates and residual moisture
will lead to scattered low-topped, fast-moving showers and a few
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon across parts of southern Lower MI
and northern OH. Forecast soundings suggest minimal CAPE values of
100-200 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong winds aloft and favorable
low-level lapse rates may result in gusty or even damaging winds in
this activity. Will maintain sub-5% severe wind probabilities at
this time, but area will be re-evaluated in upcoming updates.

..Hart.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210549
SWODY2
SPC AC 210548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday.

...New England...
An upper low centered over the Great Lakes, with accompanying
cyclonic flow aloft, will remain the primary synoptic feature across
the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday. Strong ascent and cool
mid-level temperatures east of a bent-back cold front over New
England will support scattered low-topped thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon. The strongest of these storms are expected to remain
offshore, though some may approach coastal New England and Down East
ME midday. While isolated gusty winds are possible given strong
mid-level flow, severe storms appear unlikely with very limited
buoyancy and poor low-level lapse rates further inland.

...Southwest...
Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible within a plume of
mid-level moisture ahead of the western trough moving onshore over
CA and into the Southwest late Wednesday into early Thursday. Ascent
will overspread the modestly moist air mass from eastern CA and
southern NV into parts of the Four Corners. With only weak buoyancy
likely to develop ahead of the upper trough, organized severe storms
appear unlikely, though a stray strong gust is possible.

..Elsewhere...
Subsidence in the wake of the Northeast US system will strengthen
surface high pressure behind a cold front moving southeastward
across the US. Dry and stable conditions are expected within the
post-frontal air mass across the central US, with little threat for thunderstorms. The exception being across far south FL, where
isolated storms are possible Wednesday afternoon along the coasts.

..Lyons.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211657
SWODY2
SPC AC 211655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...New England...
An occluded cyclone will steadily move northeast from the Lake Huron
vicinity into QC during the period. The low-level warm conveyor
ahead of the bent-back occluded front will pivot northeast across
and eventually out of New England through the day. Meager buoyancy
is anticipated where strong deep-layer shear can persist over
eastern/coastal New England midday into the afternoon. Scattered
low-topped showers should dominate, with isolated embedded
thunderstorms possible. Despite weak convective intensity, fast
low-level south-southeasterlies, mainly across ME, might foster a
few locally strong gusts.

...Southwest...
A compact shortwave trough moving across southern CA into the Lower
CO Valley will aid in scattered thunderstorms from the Sierra NV
Mountains to the Four Corners vicinity on Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Much of this activity should be high-based and low-topped
over lower elevations. Meager buoyancy and weak lower-level flow
will minimize severe potential. But a few locally strong gusts are
possible amid large surface temperature-dew point spreads.

..Grams.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220554
SWODY2
SPC AC 220552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible beginning late afternoon
Thursday across parts of the Southwest and continuing into Thursday
night over the southern Great Plains.

...Southern CO/eastern NM and west TX...
A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley and Southwest is
forecast to move eastward reaching the southern Rockies and High
Plains by early Friday. Ahead of the trough, weak height falls and
enhanced westerly flow aloft will support modest lee cyclogenesis
across southern CO and eastern NM. Southerly low-level upslope flow
will transport modest moisture northward across the region allowing
for weak destabilization Thursday afternoon and evening.

As ascent moves over the moistening air mass, scattered
thunderstorms are expected along a Pacific Front from the Four
Corners across north-central NM by mid afternoon. Sufficient
deep-layer shear will exist for a few supercells capable of
producing isolated severe hail/wind beneath the cold core of the
upper trough. Farther south, where moisture content will be
significantly less, weak buoyancy atop dry low-levels may support
isolated severe gusts with any convection able to develop.

...TX Panhandle into central OK...
Southerly low-level flow ahead of the upper trough will advance a
warm front northward across the Red River toward the OK/KS border
through much of the day. An initially stubborn wedge of colder air
over the northern TX Panhandle and southwest KS, will slowly recede
allowing a plume of richer moisture to surge northward late in the
day as low-level isentropic ascent increases. Height falls from the
trough overspreading the area will support a 35-40 kt low-level jet,
increasing ascent across the eastern TX Panhandle into OK by early
evening and overnight. Cooling mid-level temperatures should allow
for elevated destabilization concurrent with increasing westerly
flow aloft. Numerous storms are likely, complicating the convective
mode, but MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and elongating hodographs may
support some organized supercells/multicells with hail potential
overnight.

..Lyons.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
CO/NM/OK/TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from late afternoon Thursday
into Thursday night across parts of the southern Great Plains and
the Southwest.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley will reach the
Four Corners vicinity before stalling early Friday, as a separate
impulse moves across northern Baja/Gulf of CA. This will reinforce a positive-tilt orientation to the broader trough and support only a
weak surface cyclone across NM into far west TX.

...TX Trans-Pecos to central OK...
While the overall synoptic pattern appears consistently forecast,
much spread exists across guidance with the degree of boundary-layer
moisture return northwestward from the TX Coastal Plain by late
afternoon/early evening Thursday. The more aggressive spectrum would
support potential for a couple mesoscale corridors of greater severe
hail probabilities, one in the TX South Plains and the other in the south-central OK vicinity. A few surface-based supercells may
develop in both regimes, despite the presence of mid-level ridging
in OK early and greater mid-level height falls occurring Thursday
night. The less aggressive/drier spectrum of guidance suggests
surface-based activity may be high-based with transient/weak
supercell structures evolving into a predominately messy cluster
mode, especially as elevated convective coverage increases greatly
with a strengthening low-level jet. A broad level 1-MRGL risk
appears to be the appropriate forecast at this time focused along
the convectively reinforced front from the Permian Basin to central
OK from late afternoon into Thursday night.

...Southern CO to central NM...
The lobe of strong large-ascent attendant to the compact shortwave
trough will overspread the Four Corners by midday, supporting
widespread afternoon thunderstorms downstream across southern CO
into northern NM. The mid-level speed max attendant to the trough
will be centered farther southeast across central NM. While buoyancy
will be weak, steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough
will support a corridor of favorable destabilization coincident with
at least moderate effective bulk shear. A few lower-end intensity
supercells should develop with marginally severe hail and locally
strong gusts as the primary threats.

..Grams.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230554
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms with damaging winds and hail are
possible centered over western and central Texas, from mid-afternoon
Friday into Friday night.

...Synopsis..
A broad, and somewhat disjointed positive-tilt upper trough with
multiple embedded impulses is forecast to move from the Southwest
and Southern Rockies into the Plains Friday and Friday night. As the
trough advances eastward, enhanced southwesterly flow will
overspread a moistening air mass across parts of western and central
TX into southern OK. A lee trough and cold front trailing a weak
surface low over the TX Panhandle will serve as a focus for
scattered storm development Friday afternoon and Friday evening
across much of the southern Pains.

...Trans Pecos into central TX...
Ahead of the southern most mid-level impulse, ascent will increase
through the day eroding weak inhibition over parts of southwestern
and central TX. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 60s
to low 70s F surface dewpoints westward, supporting moderate
destabilization over the Pecos Valley northward to the TX South
Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop along the lee
trough and advancing cold front by mid afternoon, spreading east
northeastward. Veering wind profiles with 40+ kt of deep-layer shear
should support a mix of supercells and clusters/line segments
capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

Given the weak inhibition, persistent ascent, and increasing storm
coverage, upscale growth into a large MCS is likely across the
Edwards Plateau to central TX vicinity Friday night. This should
support a continued isolated severe wind/hail threat into the early
Saturday.

...TX Panhandle into southern OK and western North TX...
Farther north, uncertainty is much higher regarding surface-based destabilization. Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be
ongoing at 12Z Friday from the eastern TX Panhandle, Red River
Valley into KS, with remnant cloud cover likely to impact diurnal
heating. An east-west baroclinic boundary is likely to become
established serving as the northern effective limit for the
surface-based warm sector. As mid-level ascent increases, scattered
to numerous storms are likely to develop through the afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be elevated north of the boundary.
While a messy storm mode with numerous interactions are likely,
at-least isolated hail and damaging winds appear probable from the
eastern TX Panhandle across southeastern OK and North TX Friday and
Friday night.

..Lyons.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231724
SWODY2
SPC AC 231722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST/CENTRAL
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon
Friday into Friday night across west and central Texas. A few
tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis..
A broad, positive-tilt mid/upper trough consisting of multiple
embedded impulses will gradually progress east from the Southwest
onto the southern Great Plains. The piecemeal nature of the trough
will support only weak/disjointed surface low reflections that
should similarly slowly shift from west to central TX. Still, an
upper-level jet translating through the base of the trough across
northern Mexico will foster favorable large-scale ascent shifting
east over TX from Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday.

...TX...
Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be ongoing at 12Z
Friday across KS/OK, with more isolated/diminishing storms trailing southwestward into parts of west TX. Differential boundary-layer
heating in the wake of this morning activity should support a wavy
baroclinic zone across the southern TX Panhandle eastward along the
Red River vicinity. A plume of moderate MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
should become established to the south of the effective front
through the Trans-Pecos ahead of the dryline.

Timing of strengthening large-scale ascent in the afternoon is
somewhat nebulous, but guidance consensus suggests scattered
thunderstorms should form early and become widespread late. A
moderately favorable combination of steepened mid-level lapse rates
and southwesterly flow will support supercells, most likely across
the Trans-Pecos into the Low Rolling Plains. An amalgamation of
numerous interacting updrafts should yield a large MCS by evening.
This MCS should persist through Friday night into early morning
Saturday as it moves into central and eventually east TX. The
overall threat area will become more narrow overnight, but isolated
severe will remain possible.

Large hail should be more prevalent during the initial storm
development across west TX, but will remain possible through the
period. Broad, low-probability tornado potential will exist across
much of the warm sector/baroclinic zone, with greater chances across
the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Severe gusts/damaging winds should
maximize as the MCS matures across west into central TX.

..Grams.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240558
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
into Saturday night, from southeast Texas to southern Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A broad positive-tilt upper trough over the Rio Grande Valley will
gradually strengthen while moving eastward over central TX Saturday
through Saturday night. Ascent attendant to a strong embedded
shortwave/jet will round the base of the trough and overspread
robust moisture over the northwest Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley.
While early morning thunderstorms are likely to complicate the
forecast, a remnant outflow boundary may serve as a focus for
renewed severe storm development across southeast TX and LA Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night.

...TX/LA...
Early in the day, an expansive MCS is likely to be ongoing across east/southeast TX. This activity is likely to continue moving
southeastward toward the Gulf Coast, with an isolated wind and
tornado threat. In the wake of the MCS, outflow will stall and
gradually lift back northward, allowing for some air mass recovery
east of the dryline across far south TX. Low 70s F surface dewpoints
and strong heating should support moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon. The approach of the basal shortwave and mid-level jet
will support additional storm development with veering wind profiles
and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear favoring supercells and organized
clusters. With most of the activity expected to occur along and
north of the recovering outflow, these storms may be elevated above
the surface. This would favor a risk mainly for large hail given
cool mid-level temperatures.

As forcing intensifies ahead of the deepening trough, upscale growth
is again expected late Saturday evening and overnight. An MCS may
develop and track eastward along the remnant outflow across
southeast TX into southern LA. A threat for damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes may continue overnight as surface moisture and low-level
shear remain stout beneath a strengthening low-level jet across the
Lower Sabine and MS Valley. While some uncertainty remains regarding destabilization, boundary layer separation is likely to be delayed
with continued low-level warm advection off the Gulf overnight.

..Lyons.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241727
SWODY2
SPC AC 241725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Saturday),
across Texas into the Sabine River Valley. All severe hazards are
possible. A couple of severe gusts or a brief tornado are also
possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S., while an upper
troughs ejects into the Atlantic and a more pronounced, larger scale
upper trough impinges on the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday).
Ahead of the southern U.S. upper trough, low-level troughing will
encourage southerly return flow from the Gulf, resulting in airmass modification amid a warm-air/moisture advection regime. As upper
support from the aforementioned trough encourages deep-layer ascent
amid this moist airmass, thunderstorms will continue to develop
and/or persist across Texas into the Sabine River Valley. Given
adequate vertical wind shear accompanying this moist low-level
airmass, multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe storms are
likely. Strong flow aloft and associated vertical wind shear will
overspread the Pacific Northwest, amid scant buoyancy, to support
low-topped but potentially strong storms.

...Portions of Texas into the Sabine River Valley...
Thunderstorms (perhaps in the form of an MCS), should be ongoing at
the start of the period across TX, remnant from the Day 1 period.
These storms will be preceded by a moist low-level airmass (i.e. at
least mid to upper 60s F dewpoints), yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
given modest mid-level lapse rates. A 35-45 kt southerly low-level
jet will already be in place over eastern TX toward the Sabine River
Valley, which will promote sizeable, curved low-level hodographs. As
such, multicells and/or supercells embedded within this MCS will
support all hazards during the morning hours, with the best chance
for isolated tornadoes being with supercells that can remain
discrete. These storms will approach the Gulf shoreline by around
Noon, and are poised to weaken in the process.

The progression of the earlier storms complicates severe potential
for the central TX into the Sabine River Valley later Saturday into
Saturday night. This is when the primary wave will overspread the
region, coincident with strengthening and some eastward shift of the
low-level jet. At least one additional, pronounced round of
thunderstorms is expected to develop across central TX during the
afternoon, and progress across LA during the evening/overnight
hours. Should adequate airmass destabilization occur behind the
preceding round of storms, deep-layer and low-level shear will be
adequate to support supercell structures and subsequent upscale
growth into a QLCS. In addition to large hail (especially over
central TX), sizeable and curved low-level hodographs will support
tornado potential. The best chance for tornadoes with the second
round of storms will be over LA late Saturday, when the storms
traverse the low-level jet axis.

...Portions of the Pacific Northwest...
As broad and pronounced mid-level trough overspreads the Pacific
Northwest through the morning to late afternoon hours tomorrow
(Saturday), 80-100 kts of westerly mid-level flow will overspread
the region. Some forecast soundings indicate 50 kt westerly flow
extending as low as 700 mb in altitude, suggesting that little
mechanical downward momentum transport is needed to support strong
to potentially severe wind gusts. Strong deep-layer ascent, amid
scant but possibly adequate buoyancy, will encourage the development
of at least one (possibly multiple) low-topped convective bands.
These bands (regardless of lightning potential) may produce a couple
of severe gusts, especially over higher terrain, warranting the
introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. Low-end
tornado probabilities have also been added to the OR coastline,
where a few low-topped supercells may promote a landfalling brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250557
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through Sunday morning
over the central Gulf Coast. A second round of strong storms is
possible by Sunday evening into early Monday, though the severe
threat appears more conditional.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A remnant MCS or cluster of strong storms should be ongoing over the
lower MS Valley early Sunday. This cluster is likely to continue
over parts of the central Gulf Coast through midday as strong flow
aloft associated with an advancing upper trough moves eastward. Rich boundary-layer moisture and modest low-level warm advection ahead of
these storms will likely support a continued severe risk given
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and
modestly sized/curved low-level hodographs. Isolated severe gusts
and a brief tornado will remain possible with the stronger cores
through midday.

With time, these storms will move offshore and to the east where
cooler and more stable surface conditions are expected north of a
stalled coastal warm front. Some air mass recovery is possible
behind the initial convection over southern MS, AL and the FL
Panhandle, where lingering 60s F dewpoints and some diurnal heating
are expected. However, this is highly uncertain. A conditional risk
for a few stronger storms may develop in the near-shore waters of LA
and southern MS/AL late Sunday into the overnight hours. While
continued onshore flow may allow for some destabilization
immediately inland, the maritime warm front and more unstable
surface-based warm sector is expected to remain offshore. A
conditional risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado is
possible along the immediate coast from southern MS/AL into the
western FL Panhandle into early Monday.

..Lyons.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251731
SWODY2
SPC AC 251729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms with isolated severe are possible Sunday
over the central Gulf Coast, with areas of damaging gusts or a brief
tornado possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the lower MS Valley and
Gulf Coast states on Sunday, bringing cooling aloft as well as 35-45
kt midlevel winds. A weak surface low is forecast from LA into
southern MS during the day, with a warm front draped southeastward
across southern MS/AL and into the FL Panhandle.

Given a substantial surface high affecting much of the eastern
CONUS, the warm front will make little progress northward, with
drier/more stable air remaining over GA/northern FL/AL with easterly
surface winds. However, a small warm sector with upper 60s to lower
70s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a cold front/east of the surface
low in LA, and into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle
late.

Substantial clouds and precipitation will be ongoing Sunday morning,
which will limit heating. Forecast soundings indicate near-saturated
profiles in the lowest 2 km. Still, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will be
present which will support strong to locally severe storms. The
large amount of storms will likely produce gusty to locally damaging
gusts, and may overturn much of the warm sector by afternoon.
Otherwise, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with storms as they
briefly interact with the warm front before crossing into more
stable air.

..Jewell.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260553
SWODY2
SPC AC 260551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and
central/northern Plains on Monday. Little to no severe storm risk is
expected.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper trough over the Lower MS Valley and central
Gulf Coast is forecast to weaken further as it moves eastward over
the Southeast US Monday. Accompanying the upper trough, a weak
surface cyclone will move southeastward as a cold front strengthens
near the Gulf Coast. Along and south of the boundary, a seasonably
moist and marginally unstable air mass (MUCAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg) is expected across far south GA into northern FL. As the
boundary sags southward, numerous storms are likely to develop along
and north of it. Predominately elevated and with weakening flow
aloft, severe storms appear unlikely. A few stronger storms are also
possible farther south over the FL Peninsula through the afternoon.
However, marginal deep-layer shear from the weakening upper-level
trough and poor mid-level lapse rates suggest only minimal potential
for strong gusts.

Elsewhere, a deepening upper trough and surface cold front are
forecast to move over parts of the northern and central High Plains
late Monday. With an intense speed max and strong cooling aloft,
isolated thunderstorms are possible late. Small hail cannot be ruled
out with the stronger cells due to such cold profiles aloft, but
minimal moisture and only weak buoyancy will limit the severe
threat.

..Lyons.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261708
SWODY2
SPC AC 261706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and
central/northern Plains on Monday. Little to no severe storm risk is
expected.

...Southern GA into FL...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue eastward across the
southeastern states on Monday, with southwest winds bringing drying
across MS/AL. A quasi-stationary front will stretch from coastal SC
across southern GA and into the FL Panhandle, with upper 60s F
dewpoints to the south. MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg may develop, aided by
cool midlevel temperatures. Scattered daytime storms will develop,
with minimal severe potential. Elongated hodographs in the upper
levels may aid minimal hail production to an extent, but severe hail
is not anticipated due to marginal supercell potential. Damaging
winds appear unlikely given mainly cellular storm mode and weak
low-level winds.

...Central High Plains...
A powerful upper trough will dig southeastward into the area with
-20 C at 500 MB by 00Z into northeast CO and western NE. Heating
will occur within a pre-frontal surface trough across those areas as
well, resulting in very steep lapse rates from the surface to the
midlevels. Moisture will be a major limiting factor for any strong
to severe storm potential. However, even with low dewpoints, lift
along the front, timed with peak heating and beneath exceptional
cooling aloft may lead to scattered convection after 21Z. Strong
gusts and perhaps very small hail will be possible.

..Jewell.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270556
SWODY2
SPC AC 270555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Ozarks to the southeast
Texas coast Tuesday. Severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough and jet streak will move out of the central
Plains into the mid MS Valley Tuesday before the upper trough
deepens into a closed low Tuesday night. As these upper-level
features intensify, a surface low will develop over the Red River
Valley and strengthen as it moves into the mid MS Valley early
Wednesday. Attendant to the surface low, a powerful cold front will
sweep eastward over much of the central and eastern US, reaching the
Gulf Coast by 00z Wednesday.

Southerly winds ahead of the cold front and surface low will briefly
allow some moisture return from east TX to southern MO. As cool
mid-level temperatures overspread the modestly moist air mass, weak
buoyancy is expected to develop. A few thunderstorms are possible
from southern MO, into AR and east TX ahead of the front. However,
forecast boundary layer moisture profiles are expected to be shallow
over much of the warm sector. This, along with poor mid-level lapse
rates and drier air approaching from the west will likely curtail
buoyancy (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) and storm intensity.

A stronger storm or two is possible over coastal southeast TX where
moisture will be somewhat deeper. An isolated strong gust or small
hail will be possible with any more robust storms able to persist.
However, poor lapse rates and the tendency for the cold front to
undercut convection suggests this risk will be limited.

Elsewhere, elevated instability may remain over the NC Outer Banks
as a weakening upper wave moves across the area, with moist easterly
winds wrapping moisture westward north of an offshore surface low.
Most model guidance shows storms remaining just offshore. However,
some inland lightning potential cannot be ruled out.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271032
SWODY2
SPC AC 271031

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Ozarks to the southeast
Texas coast Tuesday. Severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough and jet streak will move out of the central
Plains into the mid MS Valley Tuesday before the upper trough
deepens into a closed low Tuesday night. As these upper-level
features intensify, a surface low will develop over the Red River
Valley and strengthen as it moves into the mid MS Valley early
Wednesday. Attendant to the surface low, a powerful cold front will
sweep eastward over much of the central and eastern US, reaching the
Gulf Coast by 00z Wednesday.

Southerly winds ahead of the cold front and surface low will briefly
allow some moisture return from east TX to southern MO. As cool
mid-level temperatures overspread the modestly moist air mass, weak
buoyancy is expected to develop. A few thunderstorms are possible
from southern MO, into AR and east TX ahead of the front. However,
forecast boundary layer moisture profiles are expected to be shallow
over much of the warm sector. This, along with poor mid-level lapse
rates and drier air approaching from the west will likely curtail
buoyancy (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) and storm intensity.

A stronger storm or two is possible over coastal southeast TX where
moisture will be somewhat deeper. An isolated strong gust or small
hail will be possible with any more robust storms able to persist.
However, poor lapse rates and the tendency for the cold front to
undercut convection suggests this risk will be limited.

Elsewhere, elevated instability may remain over the NC Outer Banks
as a weakening upper wave moves across the area, with moist easterly
winds wrapping moisture westward north of an offshore surface low.
Most model guidance shows storms remaining just offshore. However,
some inland lightning potential cannot be ruled out.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271711
SWODY2
SPC AC 271709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX AREA SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Ozarks
into southeast Texas coast Tuesday. Small to marginally severe hail
may occur from southeast Texas into western Louisiana during the
late afternoon.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An intense midlevel jet will nose into the KS/OK region during the
day, with a deepening upper low dropping southeastward into AR. A
cold front will extend roughly from the ArkLaTex area southwestward
across eastern TX, with a inverted surface trough extending
northward across AR and MO where surface temperatures will be
cooler.

Ahead of the cold front, modest boundary layer heating along with
upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints will lead to MLCAPE to around 1500
J/kg. Lapse rates aloft will not be very steep, but favorable lift
along the front should instigate a broken line of storms after 21Z
from near the AR/LA border southwestward into southeastern TX.
Deep-layer shear will be quite strong, especially in the mid to
upper levels, and this should favor cellular storm mode. Storms will
move quickly east/southeastward, with the stronger cells producing
small to perhaps marginally severe hail through early evening from
the upper TX Coast into perhaps central LA.

..Jewell.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280558
SWODY2
SPC AC 280556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to consolidate across the
eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves
eastward across parts of the TN/OH Valleys. A surface low initially
near the AR/MO/TN border region is forecast to weaken through the
day, with secondary low development expected across parts of the
Southeast. A cold front will move through parts of GA and the
Carolinas through the period. Elsewhere, a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough will move quickly eastward from the Pacific Northwest towards
the northern Rockies and High Plains.

...Parts of GA into the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic...
Surface-based instability is expected to remain negligible during
the day along/ahead of the cold front moving across parts of the
Southeast. A weakly convective rain band (with little or no
lightning) may develop from late afternoon into the evening from GA
into the western Carolinas, as large-scale ascent increases and the
front encounters very modest elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE likely
near or below 100 J/kg). Gusty winds may occur with this frontal
band as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though lingering low-level
stability is expected to limit potential for convectively enhanced
severe gusts at the surface.

Late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, somewhat richer
low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F) may spread across
coastal NC, as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to
secondary surface-low development. Weak lapse rates will generally
limit buoyancy, but isolated and at least weakly organized cells
cannot be ruled out near the coast. At this time, most guidance
suggests that weak instability will tend to limit the
organized-severe threat. Farther north, sporadic lightning flashes
will also be possible with mainly elevated convection moving across
parts of the Mid Atlantic late in the period.

..Dean.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia
into northeast North Carolina.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

A deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east
across the Southeast, and approach the Atlantic coast, on Wednesday.
Strong southerly deep-layer flow is forecast ahead of this feature,
with a 500 mb jet streak near 90-110 kt. As the upper low shifts
east, a surface low over the TN Valley and attendant cold front will
develop east across AL/GA through 06z. A wedge front along/east of
the Appalachians will limit northward transport of Gulf moisture
into the Southeast ahead of this feature. Meager MUCAPE will support
low-topped convection near the cold front, with little to no
lightning activity expected. Gusty winds are possible across parts
of AL/GA/northern FL/SC with this activity, but poor low-level lapse
rates and very weak thermodynamic profiles will preclude severe
potential.

Overnight, the surface low will deepen over VA/NC and the wedge
front will lift north as a warm front into the Chesapeake Bay
vicinity. Southerly low-level winds between the eastward-advancing
cold front and south of the warm front will allow for development of
a narrow warm sector and low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move inland
across northeast NC/southeast VA. Thermodynamic profiles will remain
poor, but 40-50 kt southeasterly flow just above the surface amid low-topped/weak convection could allow for isolated strong to
locally severe gusts, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
included with the Day 2 update.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281805
SWODY2
SPC AC 281803

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT PROBABILITY LABEL

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia
into northeast North Carolina.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

A deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east
across the Southeast, and approach the Atlantic coast, on Wednesday.
Strong southerly deep-layer flow is forecast ahead of this feature,
with a 500 mb jet streak near 90-110 kt. As the upper low shifts
east, a surface low over the TN Valley and attendant cold front will
develop east across AL/GA through 06z. A wedge front along/east of
the Appalachians will limit northward transport of Gulf moisture
into the Southeast ahead of this feature. Meager MUCAPE will support
low-topped convection near the cold front, with little to no
lightning activity expected. Gusty winds are possible across parts
of AL/GA/northern FL/SC with this activity, but poor low-level lapse
rates and very weak thermodynamic profiles will preclude severe
potential.

Overnight, the surface low will deepen over VA/NC and the wedge
front will lift north as a warm front into the Chesapeake Bay
vicinity. Southerly low-level winds between the eastward-advancing
cold front and south of the warm front will allow for development of
a narrow warm sector and low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move inland
across northeast NC/southeast VA. Thermodynamic profiles will remain
poor, but 40-50 kt southeasterly flow just above the surface amid low-topped/weak convection could allow for isolated strong to
locally severe gusts, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
included with the Day 2 update.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL NC
INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging-wind potential may occur
Thursday from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic.

...Coastal NC into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
A Marginal Risk has been added for parts of coastal NC into the Mid
Atlantic, mainly for a continuation of a threat that may develop
late D1/Wednesday and continue into at least the first part of the
day on Thursday.

A mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered over the Ohio Valley
will move northeastward on Thursday, reaching parts of the Lower
Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period. An associated surface
low is forecast to deepen as it moves northeastward from parts of
VA/MD toward southern New England. A trailing cold front will sweep
through the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and eventually move into
parts of western New England by Friday morning.

Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from coastal NC
into parts of the Mid Atlantic. There will be some potential early
in the period for near-surface-based convection within a favorably
sheared environment across coastal NC and far southeast VA, which
could be accompanied by strong/locally damaging gusts. A relatively
narrow warm sector (characterized by low 60s F dewpoints) will
spread northeastward through the day across parts of the Mid
Atlantic, in advance of the cold front. Muted diurnal heating and
weak lapse rates will tend to limit surface-based destabilization,
though relatively strong low-level flow could support some potential
for convectively augmented gusts with any deeper convection within
the warm sector.

There could also be some potential for modest storm organization
near the surface low across parts of southern/central PA and
vicinity if sufficient destabilization occurs, but guidance varies
considerably regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture
return in this area.

..Dean.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291715
SWODY2
SPC AC 291714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur Thursday from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid
Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will deepen as it moves from the central
Appalachians to the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday. A surface low
will deepen slightly as it moves up the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians. This will pull low-level moisture westward across
eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Eastern North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic...
A line of strong to isolated severe storms will likely be ongoing at
the beginning of the period from eastern Pennsylvania into southern
Virginia. Ahead of this line of storms, weak instability is expected
to develop, potentially as far west as far northern Virginia and far
western Maryland. Have modified the western extent of this Marginal
Risk to account for the expected western/northern extent of the warm
sector ahead of the cold front. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threat, but strong low-level shear may also support a
tornado.

...Western Pennsylvania...
Beneath the upper-level low, some isolated hail threat may exist
during the afternoon. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to
cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability during
the afternoon with sufficient shear for storm organization.
Extensive cloud cover should limit surface heating and thus the
threat for large hail. However, if some clearing/greater instability
can develop in a corridor across western Pennsylvania, a few
stronger storms may be capable of marginally severe hail. This trend
will be monitored for potential hail probabilities in later
outlooks.

..Bentley.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300544
SWODY2
SPC AC 300542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel
cyclone will move northeastward across New England on Friday, in
conjunction with a deep surface low. Stable conditions in the wake
of this system and its attendant cold front will limit thunderstorm
potential through the period. Weak elevated convection may accompany
the midlevel cyclone across northern New England early in the day,
but buoyancy appears too weak/shallow for more than very
isolated/sporadic lightning flashes.

Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough will dig southeastward across
the Great Plains and upper MS Valley. Cold temperatures aloft
associated with this trough could support weak convection across
parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, but this convection is
generally expected to remain too shallow for thunderstorm
development. Weak low-level moisture return may commence near the TX
Gulf Coast by early Saturday morning, but forecast buoyancy is very
weak to negligible through the end of the period.

..Dean.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301651
SWODY2
SPC AC 301649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Discussion...
A large-scale trough will envelope much of the eastern CONUS on
Friday with 2 mid-level low centers across New England and the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, a strong area of low pressure will move
from northern Vermont toward New Brunswick/Nova Scotia. An occluded
front will extend east from this low where a strong cold front will
extend from the northern Atlantic to into the Caribbean and deep
into the Gulf. This deep frontal intrusion will result in cool, dry
continental air across much of the eastern CONUS. Cool air aloft
beneath each of the mid-level low pressure areas may result in some
convection, but this convection should remain too shallow for charge separation.

A low pressure center will move across the Rio Grande through the
period. This will result in some return flow across the western Gulf
and inland intrusion of better low-level moisture. However, the
early stages of this moisture return will be shallow, and therefore
no thunderstorm activity is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310557
SWODY2
SPC AC 310555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the
western Gulf Coast, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level low will move southeastward through the Upper Midwest on
Saturday, as an associated trough moves through the Ozarks and
western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward through the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. A moist
airmass will be in place over the Texas Coastal Plain, where
isolated thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening.
Instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat.
Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not
forecast Saturday and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2025

$$

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