AWUS01 KWNH 101748
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-102230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...central/northern AZ into southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101745Z - 102230Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding appear
likely to develop from portions of central and northern AZ into
southern UT through the afternoon. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches is likely but within axes of training, hourly rainfall over
1 inch will be possible.

Discussion...Between 1530-1730Z, regional radar imagery has shown
an increase in the coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms extending in a SW to NE axis from central to
northern AZ. These storms were located within a highly anomalous
moisture plume, extending downstream of T.S. Priscilla which was
located west of the Baja Peninsula. OSPO ALPW imagery showed the
mid to upper level reflection of Priscilla beginning to cross the
central Baja Peninsula and standardized PWAT anomalies across the
Desert Southwest were +4 to +5 above the mean with 12Z sounding
values at VEF (0.92 inches) and FGZ (1.27 inches) well above the
SPC climatological max for October 10.

Despite overcast skies, weak solar insolation was helping to boost
instability across the region with some pockets of 500+ J/kg
MLCAPE and a broader coverage of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE shown on the
17Z SPC mesoanalysis. Fairly unidirectional southwesterly winds in
the low to mid-levels will promote area of training where
confluent 700 mb winds are located from western to central to
northeastern AZ. RAP forecasts indicate some strengthening of the
700 mb flow through 00Z which may act to increase coverage of
cells through the afternoon. Subtle vorticity maxima embedded
within the southwesterly flow aloft across the lower CO Valley
will also likely contribute to development of convection over the
next few hours. A continued increase in instability is expected
through peak surface heating which will help to support locally
higher rates which, given the remnant tropical moisture, may
support sub-hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in ~30 minutes.
In addition to heavy rain overlapping with urban areas or burn
scars, areas of flash flooding will be most likely within slot
canyons, small streams and normally dry washes.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_fhNyipkb54HKzFWYzeGgKOFZkUl8yibXkLxsmv7AzdcSUPhiVTEU6vbKNW_lNUqbCMW= aZ2pa8pxQgloNG1hzf1UA0A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38810953 37960957 35671017 34351135 34111300=20
35111413 36811378 37651320 38451206 38781062=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 101943
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...southern CA, southern NV into central UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101940Z - 110140Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and expand in
coverage over portions of southern CA, southern NV into central UT
over the next 3-6 hours. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is
expected along with isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible imagery from 1930Z showed mostly
clear skies over the desert regions of southern CA into southern
NV and central UT, northwest of an extensive cloud shield to the
southeast. This region was located along the northwestern edge of
an anomalous moisture plume with standardized anomalies of PW
between 3 and 5 above the mean via the 12Z GFS. SPC mesoanalysis
data from 19Z showed 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across a majority of the
MPD threat area, but areas of low level inhibition remained,
especially across southern CA into NV.

Based on continued heating of the surface and advection of
moisture seen in OSPO ALPW imagery within the surface to 700 mb
layer, streaming north of Priscilla in the eastern Pacific,
further erosion of convective inhibition is expected through the
remainder of the afternoon. Convective development appears likely
within the next 1-2 hours, first over areas of higher terrain and
then spreading into the lower elevations with time. Some
augmentation of divergence aloft, within the right-entrance region
of a developing upper level jet max over southern NV will be
possible, aiding in the general forcing for ascent.

Unidirectional flow, generally from the southwest, will promote
areas of repeating and short term training within subtle low level
confluent axes. Coverage of cells may only become widely scattered
but the moisture-rich environment will promote efficient rainfall
production with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain in an hour expected.
These high rain rates are likely to result in at least isolated
areas of flash flooding, with a particular focus across any
population centers and burn scars, while otherwise impacting any
low lying and normally dry stream beds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8n0YZyRg_lRWv0PSZqz8psF9S-5A5bx8N5kI8ye1FG0rnFnmrsk281Y6QRNxwz1PmToJ= 1se-mmr7K4vc6iZuzvl_2ew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...LKN...PSR...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39891291 39781057 39280943 38760947 38571076=20
38211182 37571281 36281369 34951444 34281507=20
33701587 33911680 34441741 35521712 36691669=20
39011531=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102235
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-110330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...lower CO Valley into central/northeastern AZ and
northwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102230Z - 110330Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding
will be possible from the lower CO River Valley across central AZ
into northwestern NM through 04Z. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches is likely within stronger cores and isolated hourly totals
in excess of 1 inch will be possible.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor and OSPO ALPW imagery at 22Z
showed mid to upper level moisture from Post-T.C. Priscilla
streaming northeastward across the northern Baja Peninsula/Gulf of
California. Regional radar imagery showed a few stronger
reflectivity cores moving northward from Mexico into southeastern
CA and southwestern AZ, co-located with the upper level moisture
plume advancing into the region. Farther north, a broken SW to NE
axis of showers/thunderstorms extended from southwestern AZ into
northeastern AZ, along a remnant differential heating boundary and
along the White and San Francisco Mountains. Despite the highly
anomalous moisture plume in place across the entire Southwest
region, instability has been rather fragmented due to extensive
cloud cover limiting the coverage of higher rainfall rates up
until this point.

However, given the pockets of relatively higher MLCAPE that exist,
according to 22Z SPC mesoanalysis data, some locally higher
rainfall rates can be expected over the next 3-5 hours. 22Z SPC
mesoanalysis showed 500-1000 J/kg over portions of eastern AZ into
northwestern NM and into southwestern AZ, albeit with varying
degrees of inhibition. As the mid and upper level energy and
moisture plume from Priscilla continues to advance downstream
across the Southwest, the potential for increased rainfall
efficiency will exist within low level axes of confluence. These
axes of confluence will occasionally align with the deeper layer
mean steering flow from the SW, supporting repeating and training
of heavy rain cores. Isolated to widely scattered hourly rainfall
of 0.5 to 1.5 inches will be possible, generating possible flash
flooding, especially if overlap occurs with an axis of 1 to 3+
inches which has fallen over the past 24 hours from near Phoenix, north-northeastward across I-40. In terms of coverage, if recent
WoFS cycles are any indication, 6-hr probabilities of exceeding 1
inch are less than 40 percent and quite isolated across AZ into
northwestern NM.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4M6w_YQ7TUizrI6ojZcY1oE6sc2O0vb4mcFnty_hSt-Uwhh2PFR9h_3IfCbc_h14VgeB= 3S7PWx8ftXhr6vXBYW69jWQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36220988 36120807 35090798 34030943 32581118=20
32061270 32181445 32741528 34131506 35341290=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110153
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110552-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1180
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, southern
Utah, and far southeastern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110152Z - 110552Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains likely across the discussion
area, with locally significant impacts noted near the Las Vegas
area.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to migrate
northeastward along an axis from near Las Vegas metro
northeastward to near St. George, UT. The cells remain embedded
in an environment characterized by abundant moisture 1-1.75 inch
PW values and sufficient surface-based instability for robust
updrafts (1000 J/kg SBCAPE). Despite appreciable cell motions
(around 20-30 knots), these cells were producing areas of 0.5-0.75
inch/hr rain rates - enough to prompt local flash flood
occurrences near the Las Vegas metro area. Localized training is
also aiding in promoting higher rain rates on a localized basis.

The ongoing scenario for flash flooding should continue for at
least a few more hours. Low-level southerly advection beneath an
expansive rain shield across the CA/AZ border region (Lower
Colorado River) has stabilized the airmass in that area, and some
of this stable air may work into the discussion area from the
south. This stabilization, combined with nocturnal boundary layer
cooling, should result in a gradual weakening trend with most
convection through 06Z/11p PDT. Despite the anticipated weakening
trend, the overall synoptic environment (with forcing from
Priscilla's remnants to the south and a larger-scale upper trough
near northwestern California) may continue to favor isolated
convection (and localized flash flooding) where surface-based
instability remains.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Jdk6OFcssdUL7VS0etkLp9eFcyqu60lBp3b6XIlLWIh9tEK6kdMQ5NReK5L-dQaWucF= YG37iFyInTAiKcPtjCcDujg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39071213 38351111 36601219 34201531 35791688=20
37251612 38791414=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110329
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-110928-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...much of Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110328Z - 110928Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues as remnants of Priscilla
approach Arizona. Heavy rainfall will become more widespread for
a few hours tonight, causing instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Mid-level remnants of Priscilla are approaching
Arizona from the southwest. Ascent associated with the remnant
system has resulted in widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity across western and central sections of the state along
with 0.5-2.5 inch rainfall totals. The downstream airmass across
the discussion area remains abundantly moist (PWs ranging from 1
inch in the north to 2.1 inches southwest). Surface-based
instability is maximized across southwestern parts of the state
(1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and becomes minimal with northeastward extent.
The environment continues to support widespread light rain along
with locally heavier rain rates. Per the latest MRMS data, a few
spots along the CA/AZ border and in terrain-favored areas of
central AZ have exhibited rain rates approaching 0.5 inch/hr.

Ongoing trends are expected to continue through the overnight
hours. Precipitation may increase in intensity in a few areas as
ascent from Priscilla approaches from the southwest. The heaviest
rain rates will materialize as convective cells interact favorably
with moisture/instability across southern sections of the state
and orographic ascent locally raises rain rates near the Mogollon
Rim. Rain rates approaching 0.5-0.75 inch/hr remain a good bet on
at least an isolated basis over the next 6 hours (through 09Z/2a
PDT). Areas of excessive runoff and flash flooding are expected.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-s4mU2M4gKkfDKiII_txtBqRkRtjtGn3Pp4nG-GTR18GdfHaa_HQcp_3IdlOPjILY1yB= BmiaVG0D3r5YSkvOuuR8Wqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36461134 35660954 33490958 31771059 31851301=20
32741462 34551414 35311358=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111901
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into western/central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111900Z - 120100Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 01Z (7
PM MDT/6 PM MST) across southeastern AZ into western and central
NM. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected where showers/thunderstorms align and train, and isolated spot storm
totals near 2 inches will be possible.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor imagery showed a lead shortwave
trough extending from western CO into northern NM tracking toward
the east, associated with light to occasionally moderate rainfall.
Southeast of this feature, visible imagery showed a mixture of
clouds and mostly clear skies from southeastern AZ into central
NM. The environment across the region contained highly anomalous
moisture, with contributions from the tropical east Pacific,
represented by +3 to +4 standardized anomalies of PWAT. While
there was drier air aloft, the 18Z sounding from TUS contained a
PWAT of 1.66 inches (well above the climo max for mid-October) and
250 J/kg MLCAPE with a stable warm layer centered near 800 mb.
Where better heating is occurring across the region, instability
is likely a bit higher with 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data showing 500+
J/kg over much of southeastern AZ.

Continued heating over the next few hours is expected to support
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg later this afternoon over southeastern AZ,
with values closer to 500 J/kg into portions of NM. While a few
thunderstorms have been noted within a few disorganized cells
moving into western NM, additional development is anticipated with
better heating and weak forcing ahead of the aforementioned
shortwave and broader height falls ahead of a large upper trough
moving into the western U.S. In addition, an organizing upper jet
near 300 mb is expected to provide some added support in the form
of divergence and diffluence within its right entrance region over
the southern AZ/NM border.

As cells increase in coverage, mean WSW flow could promote some
repeating and brief training of cells into the early evening
hours. Expected hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected
which may result in some isolated flash flood issues atop
sensitive terrain, normally dry washes and/or remnant burn scars
widely scattered across the region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8vCZEOPLBt_AWvq-2nEyqh9zBSynSEPL7AVgbfrlDg9vDEXhDd7I6VQtGBAeZrEsTFKK= 6zVrJVaJlhNaoqRmjngsdDg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36230587 36050524 34620519 32930553 32410667=20
31830775 31230822 31160914 31091108 31621185=20
32611165 33581051 34680912 35800739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120514
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-120912-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...far west Texas, extreme southern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120512Z - 120912Z

Summary...Conditional flash flood potential exists around the El
Paso, TX area for the next few hours.

Discussion...Deep tropical convection associated with the remnants
of Raymond continue to stream from northwestern Mexico into far
west Texas currently. Recent radar/MRMS observations depict
training/repeating with a recent uptick in convective intensity in
a cluster about 35 miles southwest of El Paso. Rain rates remain
modest, however (around 0.25 inch/hr), but an uptick in rates has
been noted southwest of El Paso also. The cells are in an
abundantly moist environment with 1.3-1.6 inch PW values.=20
Additionally, 1000 J/kg MUCAPE was sustaining stronger updrafts
and likely resulting in the convective uptick noted in recent
radar trends.

These cells are likely to persist northeastward into the El Paso
area over the next 2-4 hours. Rain rates may be marginal for
flash flooding, although urban impacts in/near El Paso appear to
be possible. Rain rates may both 1) exceed 0.5 inch/hr and 2)
persist for longer than an hour, both supportive of excessive
rainfall potential.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4uTcT5x5bOUWNZ6xNC_M0PQQni-ylZF99KF4dcC-e-UpbGBmZ9ZnOAIgL_ENvhR_QDJb= HyBxkQsydWHXrkGj-D_bCgY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32780684 32610532 31840485 30350475 31490627=20
31730817 31380832 31570901 32220855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120538
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-121037-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1184
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...northwestern Arizona, southern Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120537Z - 121037Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are quickly developing across
the discussion area and producing 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rain rates. A
few instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Robust thunderstorm activity is being forced by the
approach of a stout mid-level disturbance over Nevada currently.=20
The storms are embedded within a warm/moist axis along the
Colorado River, with 0.7-0.9 inch PW values and a narrow axis of
1000 J/kg SBCAPE along the Nevada/Arizona border area.=20
Convergence within this axis was also supporting ongoing updrafts.
The storms were embedded in relatively fast deep layer flow
(approaching 50 knots per objective analyses), resulting in quick
storm motions. Localized backbuilding and training were the likely
mechanisms for enhancing local rain rates.

Unfortunately, these rates were falling in/near areas prone to
flooding, with slot canyons and local burn scars noted in the
area. Ongoing trends are expected to continue for at least a few
hours. Fast eastward storm motions may tend to carry some of the
convection eastward toward a slightly drier airmass with weaker
buoyancy, resulting in weakening. Meanwhile, some backbuilding
may occur within the remaining warm/moist axis in northwestern
Arizona, contributing to a localized flash flood threat there.=20
Models suggest that this convective threat should be relatively
short-lived, ending by 09-10Z as cooler/drier air filters into the
discussion area from the northwest.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_0SwQEhlfDReAPwWpzIzQjUrALF3GxWI77foRe-9F-okottKbSMgqIipQ7bHdyOkUkPX= -mHgrcbUliWrMtohKG6aF_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38091207 37391099 35451202 34491323 34561438=20
35911468 37381378=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120812
FFGMPD
AZZ000-121411-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120811Z - 121411Z

Summary...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage through at least 13Z/7a MST this morning.=20
Areas of flash flooding are expected during that timeframe.

Discussion...Larger-scale ascent was beginning to overspread much
of the Southwest due to a stout mid-level wave centered over
Nevada and northwestern Utah. Meanwhile, a pool of 1000 J/kg
SBCAPE and weak inhibition has supported development of scattered
thunderstorms from the Phoenix area east to near Globe. The
storms are embedded in a moist airmass (1.1-1.5 inch PW values),
supporting rain rates at or above 1 inch/hr in the strongest
cells. Relatively quick movement has been noted owing to 40 knots
of mean steering flow. However, as cells continue to expand in
coverage and intensity, local mergers and backbuilding should also
bump rain rates to above 1 inch/hr at times. The flash flood
risk will increase as a result.

Models/CAMs suggest that the greatest concentration of
thunderstorm activity will reside along and just south of the
Mogollon Rim through 13Z/7a MST this morning. This includes the
Phoenix Metro area. Much of the discussion area remains well
ahead of any low-level boundaries that could stabilize this
airmass, and with continued ascent/height falls over the region,
flash flood potential will likely extend beyond 13Z/7a MST. Both
urban and sensitive/low-lying areas will have the greatest flash
flood risk.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5KHFFKLCfKHP79HS4HKsVvL2N0a3s-xJb_9m1OwSChAQUXuANbCvsiVKZ0v7LtkRGvIq= u6ucjJEG3YhQQhL9CEz7PrU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34471072 34050941 32830932 31381045 31801316=20
32601435 33471431 33951357 34201246=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121201
FFGMPD
SCZ000-121530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...central/northern SC coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121159Z - 121530Z

Summary...Localized high rain rates will continue a localized
flash flood threat for the central and northern coastline of SC
for another few hours. Hourly rainfall of 2-3 inches can be
expected at times.

Discussion...Localized heavy rain in and southeast of Georgetown
has resulted in MRMS estimates of 6 to 10 inches since midnight,
with a few Wunderground.com observations showing 6-7 inches in the
city and along the coast. A strong surface low (991 mb) has been
slow moving and was analyzed 115 miles east of Georgetown at 11Z
and a slow moving low level convergence axis has focused an area
of heavy rain containing hourly rainfall between 2-3 inches over
coastal Georgetown County over the past couple of hours. While
some weakening has occurred, VAD wind data showed ~50 kt of
925-850 mb winds oriented from the northeast, parallel to the
coast at KTLX, veering to a weaker and more perpendicular
orientation at KCLX. Aloft, a potent divergence maximum was
located along the coast of the Carolinas within the left-exit
region of a 90-100 kt jet streak, east of an upper low located
over the FL/GA border.

Short term RAP forecasts show the surface low finally begins to
make some northward progress over the next 6 hours along with a
disruption to the nearly stationary low level convergence axis due
to further weakening of the low level flow over southern NC and
veering of the low level winds along the central SC coast over the
next few hours. This should allow hourly rainfall values to lessen
while translating southward through 15Z. Until then however,
continued slow movement of heavy rain will maintain a localized
flash flood threat along the Grand Strand with additional rainfall
of 3 to 6 inches possible before expected weakening of rainfall
intensities.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9M6bl6rYLJauILWID5zfksfrEPk_qS1vLL9uhykKPT9FQF1fRT8Ctn6Vte8xF_bVNp0Y= 77fIcq5-CJ3JROmH5IY1qzk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33947966 33887900 33737869 33557848 33107858=20
33007873 32907930 33058024 33238047 33468048=20
33698029 33888006=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121402
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-121830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...central/southern AZ into western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121400Z - 121830Z

SUMMARY...Scattered Thunderstorms are likely to continue a few
areas of flash flooding across central/southern AZ over the next
3-5 hours, possibly extending into western NM. Hourly rainfall
over 1 inch will be found within areas of training.

DISCUSSION...1330Z radar imagery across south-central AZ showed
scattered thunderstorms, with a history of backbuilding and
training, despite individual cell motions off toward the ENE at
20-30 kt. OSPO ALPW imagery showed that the cells were located
just ahead of a slow moving, north-south oriented, 850-700 mb
moisture gradient found over the lower CO River Valley with
notable directional shear between the KYUX and KIWA 850 mb wind
vectors. The moisture plume over AZ remained anomalously high with contributions from former T.C. Raymond in the eastern Pacific. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 12Z estimated PWAT values between 1.0 and
1.5 inches over the southern half of AZ along with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE over south-central to southwestern AZ. In addition, AZ was
situated within the right-entrance region of a 130+ kt upper level
jet max extending from southern NV into northwestern CO.

RAP forecasts over the next 3-6 hours show weakening 850-700 mb
moisture transport into southern AZ but some increase in
instability is expected over southwestern AZ due to the onset of
daytime heating and continued jet-induced divergence aloft will
remain. So while there are some conflicting signals for continued
thunderstorm generation, lingering forcing for ascent should
maintain thunderstorm formation over southwestern to south-central
AZ over at least the next 2-4 hours. Mean steering flow from the
WSW will continue periods of training as some backbuilding
continues to occur, resulting in hourly rainfall of at least 0.5
to 1.0 inches, but idealized training could result in 1-2 inches
in an hour. A few areas of flash flooding are likely to continue,
especially within the near-saturated ground conditions across the
I-8 and I-10 corridors to the SSW of Phoenix.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7CvMA4CCxnaj_imwspYmaKZ96HLsNeVMrki7GJBp4PWN5OG2h-rTDQx7H_mf8HNXVA86= 8E44IHoniiUZxA8NDcsDLso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34750934 34160876 33390883 32380957 31781075=20
31521189 31641255 32091427 33051418 33751272=20
34511103=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121631
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-122200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...northern SC coast into southern NC coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121629Z - 122200Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will remain a concern along the
northern coast of SC into the southern coast of NC into the
mid-afternoon hours. High rain rates of 2 to 3 in/hr are expected
at times, which may overlap with wet soils across the Grand Stand
region and/or the Wilmington metro.

Discussion...Visible satellite imagery showed that a surface low
offshore of the NC/SC coast has moved a little north since 12Z and
was estimated to be 993 mb and ~90 miles east of North Myrtle
Beach at 16Z. A strong axis of low level convergence southwest of
the surface low continued to focus an area of heavy rain along the
coast of Horry County, with local Wunderground observations
showing hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches since 13Z and 2-5 inches of
rain since midnight. Strong convergence also existed north of the
low along and just offshore of the southern NC coast along an
occluded frontal boundary as seen in visible satellite imagery.
Despite the strong convergence along the NC coast and 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE, deep convection has been lacking. In addition to this
area being beneath the dry slot of the cyclone as seen on water
vapor imagery, the 12Z sounding from MHX is telling, indicating a
warm nose at 675 mb, capping the otherwise weakly unstable
sounding.

Short term RAP forecasts show the surface low will continue a slow
northward motion through 00Z with an elevated instability gradient
hugging the NC coast, with 1000+ J/kg just offshore but quickly
lowering to <500 J/kg for inland locations. Low level convergence
to the southwest of the surface low will likely continue to focus
heavy showers/thunderstorms with 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall for
another couple of hours, despite weak instability. This area may
drift or refocus just north of its present position.

Farther north toward Cape Lookout, it would only take cooling of
~2 C within the warm nose noted on the MHX sounding to support the
production of deep convection which would be capable of hourly
rainfall between 2 and 3 inches given the forecast of near
stationary movement of the coastal convergence axis. While this
development would be highly conditional, it is worth highlighting.

Therefore, while localized, a flash flood threat will remain
likely from the northern SC coast into the southern NC coast
through 21 to 22Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-MGmYAWFLP-8h-N2F2SLpu7JCGZPpXWLFV4r3tDZoxOW7cV0nQYMFNcr8PGC8l-ePmiE= UAiROu1FlKZ5wG-PtqmGJDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35057725 34887687 34707655 34447646 34227663=20
33727769 33157852 33087933 33497983 33887982=20
34417925 34737862 35047795=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121829
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...southwestern to south-central to southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121828Z - 130025Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered flash flooding appears likely to
continue over portions of southwestern to south-central to
southeastern AZ through 00Z. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour
or less time should be expected within training of stronger cells.

DISCUSSION...GOES West water vapor and visible satellite imagery
at 18Z showed thunderstorms forming just ahead of the southeastern
leading edge of a longwave trough over the western U.S., and
within the right-entrance region of an associated 130-150 kt upper
level jet max over northern AZ into UT and western CO. A WSW to
ENE axis of thunderstorms has been persistent over the past
several hours from southwestern AZ to locations just south of the
Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ. These storms were forming within
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs of 1.0 to 1.5 inches per 18Z SPC
mesoanalysis data. Also of note, visible imagery showed a surface
low over the northern Gulf of California, with warm/moist air
feeding northward to the east of the surface low into northwestern
Sonora and southern Yuma County.

Over the next few hours, thunderstorms are expected to continue
regenerating over southwestern AZ, with low level moisture
transport on the eastern side of the Gulf low, with individual
cell movement toward the ENE. Farther to the east, visible imagery
showed outflow propagating southward from Pinal and southern
Maricopa counties into northwestern Pima County. Surface heating
between breaks in cloud cover over south-central and portions of
southeastern AZ should allow for increasing instability with peak
heating this afternoon. Development of additional storms along
outflow and diurnal development along areas of higher terrain,
south of the ongoing WSW to ENE axis to the north, should increase
thunderstorm coverage through 21Z-00Z.

The combination of these several different forcing mechanisms
should support scattered coverage of thunderstorms through the
afternoon along with isolated to scattered coverage of flash
flooding with hourly rainfall totals maxing out in the 1 to 2 inch
range and potential for isolated totals near 3 inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7oN7bYhG37msCKXOgYR3jbNNsmojlcqoqFccUKN3uUyV6GLvhIHTFLF6BVQ2Y-Ux3gjy= rmnzjmZ1qqBXuMYwNMp7KRg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34011025 33890934 33000896 32010906 31380965=20
31111064 31291187 31921376 32161455 32591460=20
32891345 33711147=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122202
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-130400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...Northeast SC...Southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 122200Z - 130400Z

SUMMARY...Highly concentrated areas of heavy rainfall will
continue to foster flash flooding impacts, some potentially
significant, across portions of northeast SC and southern NC going
into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...A strong coastal low continues to positioned just
offshore of southeast NC to the east of Wilmington. A combination
of this and the relatively strong area of high pressure over
southeast Canada continues to channel a strong and very moist
low-level jet into the western flank of the low center where there
is currently a strongly forced environment for heavy rainfall and
embedded convection.

The 850/925 mb flow across southeast NC and into adjacent areas of
far northeast SC is on the order of 40 to 50 kts. This is yielding
strong moisture convergence which coupled with a nose of modest
instability with MUCAPE values of 250 to 500 J/kg and notable
divergence aloft for deep layer ascent is continuing to foster
highly concentrated areas of very heavy rainfall.

In fact the last radar imagery shows an axis of extremely heavy
rainfall with embedded thunderstorms impacting Columbus County in
southeast NC, and wrapping westward into Horry and Dillon Counties
of northeast SC. Rainfall rates are currently on the order of 1.5
to 2.5 inches/hour across these areas, and some rainfall totals
here of 3 to 6 inches have occurred in the last 6 hours alone.

Fortunately, the heaviest rains have pulled away from areas of
northeast SC (especially along the Grand Strand) that were hard
hit this morning and midday from very heavy rainfall totals, but
the slow movement and concentrated nature of the current activity
near the SC/NC border will support notable concerns in the
near-term for additional heavy to extreme rainfall amounts. An
additional 3 to 6 inches of rain will be possible at least locally
this evening, and this will favor additional areas of flash
flooding, some of which may be locally significant.

By later this evening, the surface low should begin to weaken as
the low becomes more vertically stacked, and this will allow for
the deeper layer ascent to subside along with the rainfall rates.
Therefore, conditions are expected to gradually improve later
tonight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4L8ZzFVuIyGn9B93YrY6I7bclVPXxiM0vD4PqVPCOyRwbcANCiayCfYMOHLE0e-0QMqj= t96ZY9h5wCl_OqufwQHJsHE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34927906 34877804 34537752 33917775 33647859=20
33087923 33298005 33948033 34537994=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130018
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
815 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...Southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130015Z - 130515Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the evening hours. Additional areas
of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...There continues to be the redevelopment of locally
heavy showers and thunderstorms across much of southern AZ, with
the late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery showing scattered areas
of moderately cold-topped convection. The activity continues to be
fostered by an unstable and moist boundary layer characterized by
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg along with presence of
favorable right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics.

Moisture remains well-entrenched across the region with PWs of
1.25 to 1.5+ inches which for this time of the year are a solid 3
to 4 standard deviations above normal. Some of the moisture at
least in the low-levels across southern AZ is being aided by
southerly flow off the very warm and moist northern Gulf of CA
which has been facilitated by placement of a weak area of low
pressure and an associated surface trough.

This moisture coupled with the instability continues to support
convection capable of producing high rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour. Additionally, there is a fair amount of effective
bulk shear overhead with magnitudes of 30 to 40+ kts. This coupled
with the instability has been yielding some organized convective
structures with enhanced updrafts and thus sustainment of heavier
rainfall rates.

The loss of daytime heating suggests at least a gradual weakening
trend of convection by later this evening, but at least for the
near-term, there should continue to be sufficient levels of at
least modest deep layer jet-aided ascent and instability for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist. Local orographics
involving areas of terrain will also facilitate pockets of
convective sustenance.

Additional rainfall totals by late this evening may reach 2+
inches where any convective cells persist or locally repeat over
the same area. This may drive some additional pockets of flash
flooding which will mainly be a concern for the normally dry
washes, but could also involve some localized urban impacts around
the Tucson metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YEL2OR_R9nVQKu6jESrZY6TyJn6HIQPQyFv9I-sxKXKZtGhC_v6tKrAWMpvr3SV9Ayr= BlzC6WR-t86FsYtTyHMzgj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32860959 32520906 31880894 31470910 31220981=20
31221119 31341186 31741295 32181308 32541273=20
32661217 32671099=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131909
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131908Z - 140100Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
rates coupled with moist antecedent conditions and elevated
streamflows will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows a substantial
amount of cloud cover across southeast AZ and southwest NM in
association with broken areas of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, a bit more clearing and stronger diurnal heating as a
result is seen across central AZ into some adjacent areas of
west-central NM. This includes portions of the Mogollon Rim.

The latest RAP analysis does show as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE pooling near and just southwest of the Mogollon Rim, and
this coupled with additional boundary layer heating should help
support the development and expansion of showers and thunderstorms
across the orographically favored higher terrain and especially
the south-facing slopes.

In general, much of the region is seeing at least some deeper
layer ascent via favorable right-entrance region upper-jet
dynamics. This is occurring downstream of an amplifying trough and
associated closed low along the West Coast. This forcing will
complement the uptick in instability and orographics for a more
expansive convective footprint across central and eastern AZ and
into western NM going through the afternoon hours.

The convective activity over southeast AZ and southwest NM has at
least some weak support from mid-level vort energy traversing the
region, and while this will tend to mitigate the instability
profiles in the short-term, it will favor there being some
differential heating boundaries that could support convective
initiation around the periphery of the deeper cloud canopy.

Many of the 12Z HREF members and other experimental NSSL-driven
MPAS solutions support there being an uptick in instability-driven
convection across areas of south-central AZ including the Mogollon
Rim in particular between 21Z and 00Z. Given the instability and
moderate levels of effective bulk shear, the uptick in convection
may include some organization with sustainably strong updrafts.
Given the anomalously moist environment, some rainfall rates of up
to 1.5+ inches/hour will be possible.

Some 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals may occur locally where any
repeating cell-activity materializes and also into the terrain
with more favorable orographics. This coupled with moist
antecedent conditions and locally elevated streamflows from recent
rainfall may pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding this afternoon. This will include potential impacts
to arroyos and burn scar locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ogxy5DCi9cWIQbhXhCaUHZOuco2FCVpE5gdOn5PZICmwxpn6_kH2mvyrJIjwda-6BFn= 8t4CMV3jHgCPm3smO2odUjs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35900735 35510682 34780671 33510733 31940754=20
31230863 31211049 31611134 32761208 33341260=20
34111268 34771208 34961080 34660940 34920852=20
35740795=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132231
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-140430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1193
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
630 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern AZ...Western/Central
NM...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132230Z - 140430Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact areas
of central and eastern AZ through western and central NM along
with southwest CO. Given elevated streamflows from recent rainfall
along with locally high rainfall rates this evening, additional
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery along with regional
radar data shows a broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting areas of central and eastern AZ through western and
central NM, with an emphasis on areas near and adjacent to the
Mogollon Rim. The convection continues to be enhanced by the
gradual northeastward advance of modest shortwave energy that is
embedded within the deeper layer southwest flow ahead of a
stronger upper-level trough and closed low dropping south along
the West Coast.

The latest RAP analysis does show as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE across areas of south-central AZ and separately across far
northwest NM and far southwest CO near the Four Corners. The
instability in particular over south-central AZ continues to
combine with moist low to mid-level southerly flow to support
convection with high rainfall rates that are occasionally reaching
1.5+ inches/hour. Elevated effective bulk shear is also favoring
some organized multicells and persistence of the activity that
coupled with orographics into the Mogollon Rim is yielding heavier
rainfall totals.

More recently, satellite imagery has been showing some greater
vertical depth of convection across western NM and also in a more
cellular manner across parts of southwest CO where improving
instability and moist upslope flow into the San Juan Mountains is
fostering an uptick in stronger thunderstorm activity.

Going through the evening hours, as moist flow and at least modest
instability continue to interact with the aforementioned shortwave
energy and favorable orographic environment, there should continue
to be broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Additional
rainfall amounts may reach as high as 2 to 3 inches where any
cell-training occurs, and this is consistent with a consensus of
18Z HREF/12Z REFS model suites.

The antecedent conditions are quite wet, and especially over areas
of the Mogollon Rim and the high country of southwest CO near and
adjacent to the San Juan Mountains. Given the additional rainfall
expected this evening, there will likely be more potential for
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7doVrWLjkwQa72VYniJNk6xk1yGikKd6Rti1oorXg66cVvPKz9cZGGsOU9oSXa0LDLGE= 6mPmcEvU8gOdRrz06ahPmiI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38440769 38300643 37560577 35720564 34050625=20
33160789 32890989 32981093 33441197 34381233=20
35001172 35211039 35750938 36450879 37770835=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132317
FFGMPD
CAZ000-140515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
716 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central CA Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132315Z - 140515Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will
impact areas around the Bay Area through early this evening. While
spreading gradually farther south along the coastal ranges, some
of these heavier rains should spread into portions of the Central
Valley. An urban flooding threat will exist, and especially around
the Bay Area, with an isolated burn scar flash flood threat as
well over some of the adjacent higher terrain.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV suite shows a strong upper-level
low continuing to deepen as it drops southward just offshore of
the West Coast. A rather strong frontal structure associated with
these height falls coupled with enhanced upper-level jet
divergence/forcing overspreading the central CA coastal ranges,
including the Bay Area, along with adjacent portions of the
Central Valley will support areas of heavy showers and potentially
a few stronger thunderstorms going through the evening hours.

A nose of MUCAPE values reaching 250 to 500 J/kg is noted along
and just ahead of a developing frontal occlusion near the Bay
Area, and radar imagery has been showing an increase in linear
bands of convection along and just ahead of the front as it pivots
inland from the coast. Deep layer forcing is expected to
strengthen this evening which coupled with moist Pacific flow
should favor some linearly oriented bands of convection to
potentially make it even into parts of the Central Valley.

Lowering ELs associated with the upper low and modest instability
will favor low/warm-topped convective elements in this dynamically
forced environment that will be rather efficient and capable of
producing rainfall rates of up to 1 inch/hour.

The relatively high rainfall rates coupled with favorable upslope
flow into the coastal ranges will support some spotty 2 to 3+ inch
rainfall totals. Generally, the interior areas of the Central
Valley will see lesser totals, but some of the stronger convective
elements here that occur may foster some locally excessive totals
of 1 to 2+ inches.

Concerns will exist for some urban flooding, and especially around
the Bay Area through early this evening. Some of the area burn
scars will also need to be closely watched for at least an
isolated concern for flash flooding and debris flow activity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!81rbhW0x8wR3EO92eXMf25Y-xC4pJGG5MjnbkZfa-pUGIzV2eud_0tr7iX73qqqvfje-= GwodklBZKSVXr2hLPCfeBy4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40672288 40552224 39362123 38122061 36672049=20
35892024 35372018 35252070 35542130 36122186=20
36792231 37442256 38762273 40092333=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140535
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141134-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1195
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140534Z - 141134Z

Summary...Strong onshore flow will continue to promote areas of
heavy rainfall, with rates of 0.5-1 inch/hr becoming possible
along upslope terrain areas. Flash flooding is likely -
especially where heavier rainfall can materialize across burn
scars and other sensitive areas.

Discussion...A strong mid-upper low centered just west of San
Francisco continues to move very slowly while promoting strong
onshore flow across coastal areas of central California. Cold
upper levels has fostered areas of 500 J/kg MUCAPE, promoting
heavier rainfall in occasional convective bands that have traveled
toward land on the southern and eastern peripheries of low. A
belt of strong low- to mid-level flow (around 30 knots at 850mb)
is oriented parallel to coastal ranges between Monterey and San
Luis Obispo and was also aiding in heavy rainfall via orographic
lift. The heaviest rain was located along and just ahead of a
cold front that was migrating southward along the coastline near
Monterey.

Over time, the strongest of onshore flow will shift southward
along the coast toward the Transverse ranges. 1-1.2 inch PW
values and minimal instability will continue to promote heavy
rainfall and rain rates exceeding 0.5 inch/hr at times. Areas of
southern California (including the Transverse Ranges and Los
Padres National Forest) will likely experience the heaviest of
activity through 12Z. Local burn scars will enhance rainfall
potential, and typical low-lying, flood prone spots will also be
susceptible to flash flooding.

An additional area of lighter rain is likely to be maintained
across portions of central California and the southern San Joaquin
Valley. Rain rates should be a bit lighter in most of these areas
(0.1-0.5 inch/hr), but should persist for several areas and cause
at least minor runoff issues.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-dO1Xb2Ee8YLBuIuvDf85AIky-PetUOunsyiThjwn7Y8rlK121JgeIM0rNgFvnj-c9eT= go8jJRBI5P6kxqAQQc-DrW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...SGX...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38842155 38022017 37111947 36371911 35691934=20
35001888 34561784 33881774 33511810 33921923=20
34602076 35982190 36902208 37802222 38582215=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 141239
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141838-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1196
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141238Z - 141838Z

Summmary...A band of showers and thunderstorms should continue to
move east with time. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" and local
totals in the 2-4" range are possible, which would be most
problematic in area burn scars.

Discussion...A narrow plume of moisture and instability near an
incoming front and ahead of a cold low to the west-northwest of
San Luis Obispo is expected to continue moving eastward through
southern CA this morning. Precipitable water values of 1-1.1" per
GPS data and MU CAPE of 250+ J/kg exist in this region.

HREF guidance shows a high chance of 0.5"+ in an hour, though very
low chances of 1"+, which fits the available ingredients. As
instability winnows with time, the potential for 1" amounts should
decrease. The mesoscale guidance suggests local amounts in the
2-4" during the next six hours. Locations with the most concern
would be area burn scars, which would be more susceptible to
runoff/debris flows.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_ufGLYKOP3DvquOzB86le3R3uxQpJxz2mBWSXE2K_3KzVyoYR-B7DXWvA1xvNFvERdMP= Kj5w75GoM8zlDlV1JUBMTKc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34891939 34771818 34551743 34491729 34311662=20
33891676 33151731 33591833 33631836 33941868=20
34001916 34191957=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141826
FFGMPD
CAZ000-150015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141824Z - 150015Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
will maintain a threat for areal flooding impacts including
potential burn scar flash flooding going through early this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A strong upper-level low and an associated frontal
occlusion continues to drop gradually down across southern CA. The
latest GOES-W visible and infrared satellite imagery shows the
leading edge of the cold front and heavy rainfall continuing to
advance through the Los Angeles Basin, with a substantial amount
of post-frontal shower activity maintaining pockets of locally
heavy rainfall.

Rainfall rates with some of the stronger convective elements along
the front and also into the southwest-facing slopes of the San
Gabriel and San Bernadino Mountains have been upwards of 0.50" to
0.75"/hour, and these rates are likely to be maintained at least
for a few more hours as the axis of stronger moisture transport
and convergence with the front continues to advance southeastward
down the coast with an approach on the Peninsular Range.

However, post-frontal instability associated with steepening
mid-level lapse rates closer to the upper low will combine with
low-level cyclonic flow into the terrain to maintain plenty of
shower activity and perhaps a few thunderstorms going through this
afternoon and early this evening. Additionally, the stronger
dynamics associated with the digging upper-level low and influx of
Pacific moisture wrapping northward up into the upslope areas of
the southern Sierra Nevada and also the southern parts of the San
Joaquin Valley will continue to foster areas of heavy rainfall
here which will include a threat for some intense low-top
convective showers.

The heaviest additional rainfall totals should generally be across
parts of the San Gabriel Mountains and especially the San
Bernadino Mountains where as much as an additional 2 to 3 inches
of rain may fall (below snow line) by this evening.

Lowering snow-levels in time will tend to mitigate some of the
runoff potential for the highest terrain, but sufficient rainfall
over especially the Pacific-facing slopes and into some of the
urban areas is expected to maintain concerns through early this
evening for areal flooding impacts and some burn scar flash
flooding. Rockslides and some localized debris flow activity near
and downstream from burn scar locations will continue to be
possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!83FIFmAZaUM2GZvSWjpAzgDb6wd4huOGcng7Ub5DWl4vbFkk3gdakmRFYie4oeWgfNL2= gvwbxQkRB4_o43BTnrHX9WY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36621923 36061849 35241815 34811741 34361675=20
33991649 33341652 32631664 32571701 32781734=20
33401770 33651827 33791851 33911881 34061919=20
34151938 34291957 34441994 35251986 35902019=20
36312014=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150525
FFGMPD
NMZ000-151123-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1198
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas affected...southern/central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150523Z - 151123Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are developing over
south-central New Mexico near Truth or Consequences. Areas of 0.5
inch/hr rates were already being observed. These rates could
increase to around 1-1.5 inch/hr at times while moving northward
across the state. Isolated flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms were developing in the southern Rio
Grande Valley of New Mexico over the past hour. These cells were
drifting northward at around 25 knots. They were also embedded in
a relatively narrow axis of weak to moderate instability (1000
J/kg SBCAPE) and moisture (1-1.2 inch PW values), supporting brief
heavy rainfall. The orientation of this convection (with movement
parallel to the moist/unstable axis) was promoting localized
training/repeating cells, with rain rates peaking at around
0.5-0.75 inch/hr per MRMS. Low-level convergence on the nose of
southeasterly 850mb flow across the eastern Plains was also
contributing to ascent along the moist axis in tandem with subtle
height falls from a larger-scale system centered over California.

Each of these factors all point to a gradual increase in
convective coverage across the discussion area over the next few
hours, with storms drifting northward toward the central part of
the state. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates could occur on a spotty
basis. FFG thresholds exhibit spots of thresholds as low as 1
inch/hr in the discussion area, suggesting isolated potential for
excessive runoff. Additionally, a few burn scars in the vicinity
may support excessive runoff on a localized basis.

Eventually, the combination of convective overturning and
nocturnal boundary layer stabilization will lead to a decrease in
convective coverage (and attendant flash flood potential).=20
Low-level convergence may also slacken toward 10Z as 850mb flow
veers to more southerly across the eastern Plains, decreasing
convective potential as well. These processes will take a few
hours to play out, with isolated flash flood potential persisting
through at least 10Z/4a Mountain Time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ReaygMsm86PXcG_rHp7rBfT2EdmFiuvKZ-K63YsskLunA1cM-ami3emW1Xk-CwkjbLI= Whsnzo8WpliTI3gaTv-DBmA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36710485 36150431 34220501 32500611 31880695=20
32030839 33680809 35790721 36470604=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160227
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-160815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1199
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas affected...northern NM into southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160225Z - 160815Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 08Z (2
AM MDT) from northern NM into southern CO with peak hourly
rainfall between 0.5 and 1.0 inches.

Discussion...02Z GOES East infrared imagery, lightning data and
MRMS reflectivity showed a broken line of thunderstorms stretching
from Rio Arriba County in northern NM into southern portions of
the CO Rockies. Additional convective development was beginning to
strengthen to the southeast of this axis, near Los Alamos and
Santa Fe. These thunderstorms were occurring out ahead of a potent
closed mid-level low tracking east through the Great Basin and
associated cold front at the surface. Instability via ABQ's 00Z
sounding and 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE between
500-1000 J/kg along with anomalous PWATs between 0.6 and 0.9
inches. Aiding ascent was divergence within the right-entrance
region of a 110+ kt upper level jet extending from eastern UT into
central WY.

Within the lingering instability over northern NM and southern CO,
additional thunderstorm development is expected over the next few
hours as the upper trough and cold front move east. Steering flow
is unidirectional from the SSW which could support some repeating
and brief training, containing hourly rainfall up to about 1 inch.
This will promote a very localized flash flood threat, which will
mostly stay focused across sensitive burn scars and any shallow
creeks or low water crossings.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9I9xdFVxTL3vOwEpa1JcByNqp-50AWQAvmbPEt5XUN0EeMmSpBINvCQb-OKHv89mNLC1= DeXenphqlok7yBazRX1ljSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37990562 37750483 36860430 35870490 35100584=20
34920660 35160697 35490707 36270704 37340655=20
37750613=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 181305
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-181904-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1200
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...MO/KS/AR/OK border area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181304Z - 181904Z

Summary...There is growing convective coverage near the
MO/KS/AR/OK border region. Hourly amounts to 2" with local
amounts to 4" are expected, which could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...WSR-88D radar and SPC mesoanalyses reveal a
noticeable decrease in CIN across the area, which is leading to
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage near the MO/KS/AR/OK
border region. A significant shortwave is approaching the region
from the TX Panhandle, which is clearly seen in GOES-19 water
vapor imagery. Precipitable water values are 1.42" at Springfield
MO, per the 12z sounding. MU CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg lies in the
region per SPC mesoanalyses. Effective bulk shear is 40 kts. The
flow at 850 hPa in convergent into the region ahead of a frontal
boundary.

The guidance shows increasing moisture into the region, due to
both convective coverage and a slight uptick in low-level inflow
into the region. Both the 850 hPa convergence and incoming front
are expected to remain foci for convective activity as we move
through the late morning into the early afternoon, which should
further increase in coverage and intensity with time. Convection
could lay down a mesoscale boundary across southern MO and
northwest AR with time. Both the 06z HREF and 00z REFS appear to
be too far to the east initially with areas receiving heavy
rainfall, but the RAP guidance shows boundary layer moisture
convergence extending eastward across portions of southern MO, so
the expectation is for a convective band to attempt to form with
embedded mesocyclones, with each meoscyclone both capable of heavy
rainfall on its own and holding up any convective band forward
propagation temporarily. This should lead to hourly rain amounts
to 2" with local totals to 4" which would be most problematic in
urban areas and Ozarks. Isolated to widely scattered occurrences
of flash flooding is expected. Recent dryness should keep other
areas from seeing significant impacts, so long as the convective
development isn't more efficient than forecast.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!40hfYk-1H3mqxauxt8LFL7ErVg-dzpIVbsmuIKyRedH_g40xaen4MIOLF1Nof91U35gm= jI6Yxkb353ch7ObsDOa3sIg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38589292 37719078 36169372 35669512 36309577=20
37949468=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181710
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1201
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southern Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181710Z - 182300Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged training of moderate rainfall with occasional
heavy bursts up to 1.5"/hr and localized totals of 2-3" and
perhaps an isolated 3.5"+. Rates and totals are on the edge of
FFG exceedance in drought/hard ground conditions for a possible
incident or two of low-end flash flooding conditions, manly near
urban or prone locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible/10.3um EIR loops depict a steadily
cooling and consolidating scattered line of convection across the
Eastern Ozark Plateau toward S IL. The stronger southern stream
shortwave over central OK continues to progress and amply along
the southeast portion of the larger scale trough while strong
upper-level jet streak is finally rounding the base and expanding
toward 110kts across KS into north-central MO in the next hour or
so. The combination of mid-level features and weak outflow from
convection is starting to combine the confluence/ascent axis
downstream of the orthogonal strong convergence along and
downstream of the southern stream shortwave over southern MO. The
confluence axis is also aligning with the deeper moisture (up to
1.6" attm) and elevated instability axis (up to 1500 J/kg),
resulting in the uptick in convective vigor across south-central
MO into SW IL. The overall coverage of cells remains scattered
though some embedded cores have be observed producing .25-.5"
totals in 15-30 minutes with hourly totals nearing 1-1.25". As
low level flow and moisture flux continue to strengthen with
rapidly expanding divergence area aloft from the strong right
entrance region to the 110kt jet, occasional hourly totals up to
1.5" are not out of the possibility.

The key for flash flooding will be duration and soil conditions
along the training axis. As the shortwave further amplifies, the
deep steering flow appears to favor a slight northward shift,
which should counteract the southeastward propagation expected
from cold pool generation. This will allow the cells to remain
favorable for longer training of 1-3 hours, but the lack of
extreme instability and oblique convergence may continue to result
in scattered to widely scattered nature of the stronger cores,
limiting totals to 2-3", though an isolated spot of 3.5"+ is not
completely out of the realm of possibility, with best potential
upstream across south-central MO toward SE MO.

The good news is the core of the training cells appear to be
aligned ideally with the axis of the highest FFG values (2-3"/hr
and 3-4"/3hrs), though there are some urban and complex/hilly
terrain through the area that would be more prone. Additionally,
the area has been in prolonged drought with 0-40 cm soil moisture
ratios below 30%, mainly less than 15%. This is also suggestive
that soils are compacted and probably a bit hydrophobic, limiting
initial infiltration. As such, if first rainfall is the intense
burst of those stronger cores, greater runoff should be expected.
As such, an isolated to widely scattered incident or two of
low-end flash flooding remains possible though the afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7njN2zcMasRNWG6xZRNgFfwZq6fEN-ToDcdjwyTX0eJXZ26_9ru8q-Qslh1yYr6mA4cF= TZmd9siu458_So0TeuvC45Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39418894 39418811 38998773 38388802 37688947=20
37229051 36939204 37589260 38239302 38809176=20
39219019=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190302
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-190800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1202
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...northern LA/MS border into north-central MS and
western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190259Z - 190800Z

Summary...Training of heavy rain is expected to result in 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour and localized totals of 2 to 4 inches
through 08Z from the LA/MS border into western AL. These higher
rain rates may result in isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery from 0230Z showed a NE to SW
axis of thunderstorms extending from western TN into northern and
western MS and far northeastern LA, co-located with an elongated
outflow boundary. A few linear clusters of thunderstorms were also
observed upstream, across southern AR into northwestern LA,
located ahead of the base of an upper trough tracking east through
OK and northern TX. The environment across the Lower Mississippi
Valley was characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and PWATs
between 1.7 and 2.1 inches per 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data and the
00Z sounding from JAN. Southerly to southwesterly 850 mb winds of
30-40 kt were present from LA into MS, allowing low level moisture
transport and lift atop rain-cooled air with mean storm motions
oriented from the southwest in MS but veering toward the west
across northwestern LA. Flow aloft was diffluent, out ahead of the
base of the larger scale upper trough located over the central U.S.

Given the available instability and source region emanating from
the south, continued forcing via synoptic scale and mesoscale
processes, some filling in of convection between the leading
outflow in MS and trailing activity in northern LA is expected
over the next couple of hours. The potential for training is high
from the MS River eastward, but the duration of training is
questionable. However, even a 30-60 minute window of SW to NE
training should be able to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain with
potential for 2-4 inches if training is able to set up for a bit
longer duration. These rainfall values may result in flash
flooding.

Dry antecedent conditions should limit flash flood potential, but
these locally higher rain rates could focus an isolated threat
across urban locations or other locations of poor drainage. The
flash flood threat is expected to move east out of the area after
08Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6MfX7yQlfiyfp69R0kFRwFC3E8EHDjXyDpEXrvnWCgZOK-zFQ-gELrRZAMUrmhSEBGtP= 3elaqsqk3bTTxnZoW3dWFAk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34128834 33358769 32428824 31579042 31779220=20
32609218 33249096 34018968=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-240700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1203
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1003 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Areas affected...Texas Big Country...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240200Z - 240700Z

SUMMARY...Short window of very intense slow moving cells before
forward propagation begins. Narrow axes of training/repeating are
possible across small area of naturally lower FF values. Widely
scattered flash flooding remains possible for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A well defined surface to boundary layer
convergence/frontal zone was noted extending east-northeast
generally along I-20 from a surface low near Ft. Stockton up to
about KRPH. Winds had an easterly component further strengthening
moisture flux convergence as southerly flow off the Western Gulf
has been in the mid to upper 50s for Tds with low to mid 60s
further eastward where larger synoptic continental polar air
remains locked the Middle Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys. The
higher theta-E air pooled along the old boundary showed a solid
axis of enhanced 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE. Polar jet exit has been
advancing out of the southern High Plains with favorable left exit
ascent in the vicinity of the convergence as well as the trailing
positive tilt mid-level trough axis remained over far NW Texas as
the wave lifts through central OK.=20

As a result, strong vertical ascent and scattered to numerous
updrafts were noted along the old frontal zone with broadening
cooling tops falling below -65C nearing -70C; denoting the initial
vigor to the updrafts. The strong moisture flux as resulted in
broadening up/downdraft cores and efficient rainfall and small
hail resulting in localized 1.5-2"/hr rates. A few spots have
already experienced these totals with an 1-2" more possible.=20=20
Slow forward motions were a result of the lingering northeasterly
flow and anchor to the old boundary; however, as the nocturnal low
level jet is starting to develop, the easterly component areas
have been over-run and broad/strengthening south to southeasterly
flow has taken over. This will allow for eventual eastward
propagation on the development of weak cold pools.

Orientation of the boundary is fairly parallel to the deepening
unidirectional steering flow out of the west-southwest. Initially
about 10-15kt, steering flow will increase to 20-30+kts over the
next few hours likely to reduce the potential for larger rainfall
totals and limit risk of flash flooding due to the initial burst
of up to 1-1.25" in 15-30 minutes overwhelming the drier grounds
with limited infiltration. As such, localized flash flooding
will shift toward widely scattered and more likely limited to
prone or urban/low infiltration ground conditions across the Big
Country through the early overnight period.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5OAoGKhG_HXUQiOPtZoP-Enoe_t6I8d_QAakdbGjfEGQpe91kFJYrEZiJaGEIwS3bqyS= Oa-iQIQrhMkiCzuw2bESxmc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34189748 33789695 33039732 32689782 32399844=20
32169959 31840075 31610177 32030223 32750153=20
33410038 33759932=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240609
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-241200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1204
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Adj South-central Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240610Z - 241200Z

SUMMARY...Deepening low level confluence and WAA will provide
consistent ascent for slow forward propagating/back-building
updrafts with 1.5"/hr rates resulting in localized 2-3" totals and
possible widely scattered incidents of flash flooding through
morning.

DISCUSSION...CIRA surface to 700mb LPW layers depict south to
north plume of enhanced low level moisture across northwest to
north Texas. A well defined stationary front/theta-E gradient is
denoted along and just east of I-35 across much of central OK
before angling westward along the KS/OK border toward weak surface
wave in SW KS. GOES-E WV suite shows strong closed low continuing
to advance out of the Four Corners with broad southwesterly flow
across much of the Southern Plains; yet the frontal zone remains
anchored by equally strong downstream low level ridging over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. As such, the deep layer moisture plume
which totals to 1.5 increasing to 1.75" of Total PWat is corralled
well and fluxed on 40kt 850mb flow.=20

CIRA LPW 700-500mb shows slug of enhanced moisture in the
southwesterly flow along the northern edge of the 300mb jet streak
axis associated with mid-level shortwave and left exit divergence
area across west-central OK into north-central OK. The strong
veering through this 850-700mb layer is moist and conditionally
unstable with MUCAPEs over 2000 J/kg. The strong WAA through the
layer is providing some weak isentropic upglide before providing
sufficient directional/speed convergence to tap the unstable air
for vertical ascent. As such, scattered clusters of thunderstorms
are breaking out across much of central to northeastern OK,
including far southern KS at different vertical layers (lower
further west). Downstream flow supports cell motions toward the
east, but with the stronger convergence and unstable air upstream,
backbuilding will result in slowing effective cell/cluster motions
and increasing localized rainfall totals. Rates of 1.5"/hr are
more likely, though very transient uptick toward 2"/hr remain
possible and isolated within the larger WAA flow regime. As such,
with slow eastward motion of the overall pattern due to the
stronger low level ridge to the east; scattered streaks of 2-3"+
totals are possible. 00z HREF empowered by the NAM-Nest and ARW
solutions suggest even a spot of 4" is not out of the realm of
possibility with 10-15% of 5"/6hr by 12z over east-central OK.=20

In general, FFG values are high (2"+/hr, 3-4"/3hrs) and rates are
not too extreme, that slow infiltration is more likely; however,
an isolated incident of flash flooding remains possible over the
next 4-6 hrs. With that stated, this is just the start of
prolonged moderate WAA ascent and repeating rounds likely to set
the stage for later flooding concerns into the late morning early
afternoon.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-wkIzyKaAfPmthRUgThy1ZMrXL2dT5YVSM-Cq53KusUN977G3VSfzydedzuu99eLoTqK= N6geyQpaNKPn4IBeDm2kAVE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37709742 37649652 36819579 36029535 35239552=20
34709607 34459724 34929812 35479839 36199802=20
36659783 37159777=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240641
FFGMPD
TXZ000-241100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1205
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...North Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240640Z - 241100Z

SUMMARY...Short QLCS segment propagating into deeper
moisture/instability axis. Low-end incident or two of flash
flooding possible given rates of 1.75"/hr and totals to 3".

DISCUSSION...Recent KFWS and GOES-E 10.3um have shown a recent
uptick in convective intensity with overshooting tops cooling near
-70C occasionally with mature weak QLCS from earlier thunderstorms
over the Big Country. The complex has history of localized 2"+
totals upstream but is moving into a more focused low-level
moisture flux/instability axis along and west of strong/reinforced
stationary front across eastern TX. Surface observations show
outflow is starting to reach southeasterly flow at the nose of
surface Tds in the 60s, that are sourced with even higher moisture
into the low 70s upstream by a few hours. A weak surface
inflection of the meso-low along the line is helping to locally
strengthen the influx of the higher moisture and slightly higher
unstable air with MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg in that stream west of
the front.=20=20

Aloft, GOES-E WV suite shows the cluster is at the hard cyclonic
turning toward the northeast providing solid diffluence in the
upper-level jet coincident and downstream of the cluster helping
to further evacuate outflow to maintain stronger updraft strength
for a few more hours. Total PWats of 1.5" and expected isallobaric
inflow should provide rates of 1.75", occasionally up to 2" and
with still some upstream potential for short-term training of an
hour or two, localized totals of 2-3" remain possible. Given the
strength of the rates and surface rooted cells in proximity to
urban locales of North Texas and incident of low-end flash
flooding remains possible for the next few hours before the cells
cross the frontal boundary and move into much drier (upper 40s Td)
and stable environment.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5W5JkTQaTOrTf8IvO-2JIkZjZVzWlEFk61Ub57gKCKbEgy-jU_WGViICRHoRqqr-kI_E= xfB7Tqysg6YJeBUAMr32ZdM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33319721 33289635 32929591 32469584 31979628=20
31959723 32249820 32649845 33029825 33229785=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241545
FFGMPD
OKZ000-242100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241544Z - 242100Z

SUMMARY...An axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms across
portions of north-central to northeast OK will be capable of
cell-training over the next few hours. High rainfall rates
associated with this will drive a threat for isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding, and especially for the more urbanized
locations.

DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E VIS/IR satellite imagery shows a
well-organized convective cloud canopy over areas of north-central
to northeast OK. Convective trends show the activity exhibiting
cooling cloud tops, with some tops to near -70C, and this is
suggestive of an environment of increasing deep layer ascent along
with favorable moisture and instability transport.

Mesoscale analyses show the convection elevated in nature
northeast of a stationary front draped across western OK down into
the Red River Valley. The nose of a south-southwest 30+ kt
low-level jet is overrunning this boundary at a largely orthogonal
angle and is favoring a corridor of relatively strong moisture
convergence within a favorably divergent flow regime aloft given
favorable left-exit region upper-jet dynamics riding across
northern OK. Coinciding the with the moisture transport and
forcing is the pooling of elevated instability with MUCAPE values
of 1000+ J/kg.

Positive 3-hour MUCAPE differentials across central OK juxtaposed
against negative 3-hour MUCAPE differentials over northeast OK
suggests a strengthening of the elevated instability gradient
which also suggests an axis of strengthening frontogenesis aloft.
This will favor stronger ascent via isentropic lift and enhanced frontogenetical forcing in the near-term with the convection and
support a further uptick in rainfall rates.

Rainfall rates may reach up to 1.5+ inches/hour given the
environment, and with an environment conducive to some
backbuilding and cell-training of the convection, some rainfall,
totals over going through mid-afternoon may reach 2 to 4+ inches.
Dry antecedent conditions overall will mitigate the runoff
potential in the near-term, but as some of these heavier rainfall
rates persist, or get into a more urbanized setting, there may be
a concern eventually for isolated to potentially scattered areas
of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_xhQKScTxndQPI2HafFNlIkNdaXy6-Xc6cRZjoyFnFNbgw7nCYQYLcImv2FYNJ2oE83k= boJUFy9RDf2188ssUgoUAgg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36789745 36719576 36429480 35569461 35119574=20
35289738 35679858 36129884 36529849=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241851
FFGMPD
TXZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1207
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Southwest to Northwest Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241850Z - 250030Z

SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
may produce an isolated to scattered threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery continues to show the
development and expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the Trans-Pecos region of southwest TX through
parts of the Edwards Plateau and into the TX Big Country.

The environment continues to destabilize out ahead of an upstream
cold front and associated deep layer trough crossing the southern
Rockies. MLCAPE values have risen to as much as 1500+ J/kg, and
with enhanced effective bulk shear of 40 to 50+ kts, convection is
quickly attaining a substantial level of organization with
multicell and supercell convective clusters noted.

Additional boundary layer destabilization will yield localized
areas of MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg by late this afternoon, which
will include a much greater level of instability pooling up across
the TX Big Country. The environment is increasingly moist with PWs
reaching 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal, and this is
being driven by a moist southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts.
This moisture transport out ahead of the front coupled with the
instability and shear should help facilitate rainfall rates
increasing to as much as 1 to 2 inches/hour with the more
organized convective cells.

Some cell-merger activity is expected over the next few hours as
the overall convective footprint takes on a larger scale QLCS
evolution by this evening. Upscale growth of convection will be
strongly connected to the arrival of strong jet-aided divergence
aloft and the already favorable kinematic and thermodynamic
environments.

Expect some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals to possible
where any cell-merger and cell-training activity occurs going
through early this evening. This may drive some isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding, and especially in around the
more urbanized areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95nBizNJjDyo2Y3Pc-KiHFFrVIZzhMck0pHgbCuyqCFi7vo5CFNzCJFEwmlXN3ZsnG8J= 0x9lhqRVBimeNasSj3AHzlA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34259948 34039855 33179816 32159877 31250020=20
30500214 30210368 30480421 31120423 31850307=20
32740187 33950035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242115
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-250300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1208
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Portions of the TX Panhandle...Northwest TX...Southwest and Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242112Z - 250300Z

SUMMARY...Pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms may expand a
bit more in coverage going into the evening hours. A localized
threat of flash flooding will exist.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cooling convective tops across parts of the TX Big Country up into
far southwest OK. The convection is becoming increasingly aligned
with strengthening deep layer ascent associated with stronger
upper-level jet dynamics downstream of the approaching upstream
trough over the southern Rockies. This is coinciding with MLCAPE
values of near 1000 J/kg focused up in close proximity also with a
frontal zone draped across the region.

Some additional uptick in the coverage of convection is expected
going into the evening hours as larger scale forcing increases
further and interacts with the modest pool of moisture and
instability nosing up across the region. This will generally be
near and east of an area of surface low pressure over the TX
Panhandle, but more closely aligned with areas of strongest
low-level convergence and frontogenetical forcing near the front.

By later this evening, some of the uptick in the coverage of
convection is expected to involve central OK as the southerly
low-level jet here strengthens and yields stronger moisture
transport.

Expect rainfall rates in the near-term to be capable of reaching
well into the 1 to 2 inches/hour range, but with some
cell-training concerns in place, there may be some localized
swaths of additional rainfall totals reaching 2 to 4+ inches by
late this evening. This is consistent with a blend of the 18Z HREF
and 12Z REFS guidance.

This will drive a threat for mainly localized and urban flash
flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_--XblOWRWkEG_g9oOKe9cFAwm-lvcMKaDSoQhsau4EL6-WKzwW9aljUlEEZdxRLY2K= qb-W-gGasQ_nQuPfXA2rzEI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37119822 36819707 36109666 34929704 33889811=20
33559921 33580013 34170070 34820090 35840067=20
36829965=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242326
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-250525-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau/TX Hill Country into Northern TX
and Southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 242325Z - 250525Z

SUMMARY...Well-organized clusters and bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will evolve going into the overnight hours.
Scattered areas of flash flooding will be likely, which is
expected to include some regional-scale urban flooding impacts,
some of which may be significant.

DISCUSSION...Early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an
expansive axis of well-organized cold-topped convection impacting
portions of the Edwards Plateau and TX Big Country, with generally
cooling cloud top trends and the convection inclusive of multicell
and supercell modes.

The environment across much of the region is moderate to strongly
unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg pooled across
the region well ahead of an upstream cold front and deeper layer
trough ejecting out across the southern High Plains. This
instability which is being aided by a moist southerly low-level
jet of 30 to 40+ kts is working in tandem with a sheared and
dynamically forced vertical column to support strong/organized
convection capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour.

Over the next several hours, the convection will tend to take on
the character of a QLCS, but with embedded swaths of convection
where cell-training and supercells will be a notable concern. This
will include portions of the Edwards Plateau and TX Hill Country
going through the late-evening hours. However, numerous runs of
the HRRR guidance along with recent RRFS solutions support an area
of more focused and potentially higher-end rainfall impacts/flash
flooding concerns closer into the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan
area along with potentially adjacent areas of the Red River Valley
of the South. This is being supported by the latest RAP analysis
which does showing the pooling of higher theta-e air/moisture and
instability nosing up across north-central TX toward the Red River
Valley. This is also in close proximity to a stationary front
which in itself is expected to interact with the low-level jet for
an area of stronger low-level forcing/convergence.

On a regional level, the more organized swaths of convection are
expected to yield locally 2 to 4+ inches of rain which will mainly
be connected to short-term cell-training considerations. However,
some of the aforementioned guidance, especially across
north-central TX (DFW metroplex region and adjacent suburbia) may
see 5+ inch totals given trends toward a more unstable/strongly
forced regime setting up this evening.

Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely going into the
overnight hours and this will include notable urban flooding
concerns. Some of these impacts may be significant, and areas near
the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area in particular should
closely monitor this situation over the next several hours.

Areas also in the more flashy/sensitive TX Hill Country area will
be at risk for elevated rainfall totals and flash flooding
concerns late this evening and overnight that may be locally
significant. This area could be the subject of a more targeted MPD consideration later tonight as conditions warrant.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7QAfLaznb4TeNmx_mk11HHddrWT-_R5iS99HSoCFi3qZu5PV4N4CBI6A0IRoBE2rixw2= GUMG1Mzvm-LF5QP_92WXyOw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35019724 34799567 33509523 32359546 31159624=20
30269725 29509860 29180037 29370140 30180214=20
30850194 31690068 32709927 33769832=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250432
FFGMPD
TXZ000-251000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1210
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...Eastern & South-Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250430Z - 251000Z

SUMMARY...Upstream QLCS have slightly favorable training
environment to maintain longer rainfall duration for spots of 2-4"
totals and scattered possible incidents of flash flooding through
late overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows a mature QLCS rapidly
advancing across North Texas into the Heart of Texas increasing in
forward speed, while strong inflow vector becomes parallel to the
line reducing overall convergence. However, GOES-E WV suite
denotes main southern stream shortwave lifting northeast through
the Red River Valley with trailing mid-level trough axis back
toward the Big Bend of the Rio Grande Valley. Strong
diffluent/split flow from 80kt sub-tropical jet streak, generally
aligned along South Texas and through the Upper Texas Coast
combined with right entrance to 70kt south to north polar jet
streak across the Big Country allows for increasing divergence in
proximity to the trailing convective outflow (southern edge of
strong 1015 Meso-high).=20

Strong surface to 925 south-southeasterly flow at 10-20kts is
pumping low 70s Tds and increasingly unstable air off the western
Gulf generally orthogonal to the orientation of the
trough/convergence axis. This is providing more than ample strong
moisture flux convergence for a strengthening cluster along the
upwind edge with overshooting tops to -70C. Pooled moisture is up
to 1.5" through depth, though maximized in the lowest portion of
the column allowing for efficient rainfall production with
1.75-2"/hr rates. Downstream along the northeast edge, isentropic
WAA is providing some scattered towers pre-wetting the soils as
the peak cores rapidly advance. While forward speed will limit
overall totals, the combination of prolonged moderate rainfall
with peak rates up to 2" (with 03z HRRR suggesting 1.25"/15
minutes) may be intense enough to overcome the regionally high FFG
values. A few urban locations along the path would be more prone
to these rates for scattered flash flooding concerns particularly
San Antonio Metro.

Of note, but a bit less certain, in the wake of the cluster there
is a solid upstream remaining pocket of 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE
through the Big Bend/Lower Pecos Valley. While mid-level
shortwave and ideal jet diffluence will be downstream, low level
flow intersecting the flanking outflow has some solid potential
for redevelopment. While not likely as strong as the initial
cluster any totals of 1-2" additional would further expand those
areas that were close to exceeding with the initial round and
maintain a risk of localized flash flooding for a few additional
hours.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_xzXZ80QIJTG7LPofMaIHf3Qh0QagUEjt7_3SPKnxEcuHmWDDY0XXEnkg2CfJPEAqnf8= RPaLTgyMVvzV2AgZsvoQijY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30869829 30849640 29899569 28839627 28649903=20
28880036 29250109 30000129 30189935=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250722
FFGMPD
TXZ000-251300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1211
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...East-Central to Southeast Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250720Z - 251300Z

SUMMARY...Forward speed to slow slightly and allow for 2"+/hr
rates locally. Widely scattered spots of 2-4" totals and
localized flash flooding remain possible, especially near Houston
Metroplex.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts older initial QLCS
across eastern TX has started to slow with fractured, but still
broad updrafts, particularly in the southern edges of the line
from Leon to Henderson county, as the main forcing from shortwave
DPVA continues to become more oblique as that wave exits across
the Red River Valley into SE OK. The upstream trailing shortwave
associated with the strong divergent pattern across the Heat of
Texas combined with strong meso-high/cold pool is propagating the
secondary squall line quickly eastward starting to align SSW to
NNE with the initial line. Solid southeasterly surface inflow,
veers with height to 850mb becoming increasingly confluent with
strong 30kts and 30-45 degrees of directional convergence.=20
Moisture is also much deeper though the Coastal Plain with Tds in
the low to mid 70s and overall PWats over 1.75".=20

As the main mid-level wave exits and core of the closed low slowly
drops southward, the downstream ridging is likely to increase and
forward speeds are to slow with steering flow shifting from SW
toward SSW. This will increase overall rainfall duration in
combination with the strength of moisture flux convergence.=20
Surface temperatures off the Gulf are also into the lower to mid
80s providing further buoyancy over the next few hours. Rates
will increase to 2"/hr and developing streamers off the Gulf,
localized maxima/transient mergers may further enhanced highly
localized tropical/deeper warm cloud processes to support focused
2.25-2.5"/hr totals. The line will still be forward propagating
and should limit some of the duration but still support scattered
incidents of 2-4" totals while an isolated 5" not completely out
of the realm of possibility given 00z HREF probability of 20-25%
across far SE TX through 15z; though 3" probability reach 70-90%
along and downstream of the Houston Metro providing some
confidence for localized possible flash flooding incidents through day-break.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8up3DJtTG51ajbcvYZByA5q3tpR4ley3ETFHi-w3FNGrkTh7yo9xAjXaOONmrwmu_WTB= Jl3OeIXS3oi0-5XiZf2F1Ps$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32269484 31969414 31429380 30819371 29789401=20
29199489 28609569 28629623 29219645 29909640=20
30369634 31479614 31899590 32159556=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251925
FFGMPD
TXZ000-260115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1212
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251923Z - 260115Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be redeveloping and
gradually expanding in coverage going through the early evening
hours. Some cell-training concerns and locally high rainfall rates
coupled with recent moistening of soil conditions may foster
localized areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
in conjunction with surface data shows the boundary layer across
central TX gradually destabilizing as a cold front approaches from
the west. This is evidenced by an expanding CU/TCU field along
with a southwest/northeast oriented axis of showers and
thunderstorms that has developed from KBBD to just north of KMNZ.

Solar insolation combined with fairly steep mid-level lapse rates
have allowed MLCAPE values across the eastern portions of the TX
Hill Country to increase to as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This
coupled with moderately strong effective bulk shear values (30 to
40 kts) and arrival of deeper layer ascent associated with jet
energy rounding the base of the southern Plains upper
trough/closed low should favor an uptick the coverage of
convection over the next few hours across central TX.

Areas a bit farther off to the east involving eastern TX are much
more stable in the wake of the early morning QLCS, and the latest
RAP analysis shows this region struggling to destabilize, so much
of the heavy rainfall threat in the near-term should be across
portions of the TX Hill Country up into the TX Triangle region.
This is where better low-level convergence ahead of the front and
interaction with unstable southwest flow will be noted.

Some cell-training concerns are going to be possible with the
convection given the linear nature of the activity along with
alignment close to the deeper layer steering flow. Rainfall rates
will be capable of reaching 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger
storms, with some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals possible
where the better cell-training occurs through early this evening.
The latest HRRR and RRFS guidance supports this, but the RRFS is
notably wetter and probably too wet given the modest PW
environment (~1.25 inches) and moisture transport regime.

Given the rainfall potential and locally moistened soil conditions
from last night's rainfall, there may be a localized threat for
some flash flooding heading through early this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5abBr_tUvcIQ38IHIAQqo8ktwJT7BlAcXgbR9Vm24rUZLEPHbahC6jGXaDGXn3OYNIZ8= BGMPcugFs-TiQJJXnGwgWGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32749635 32559589 32159571 31509585 30719681=20
30239838 30279977 30580014 30910011 31219959=20
31499898 31799842 32629718=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260211
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-260800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1213
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1011 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Much of Western & Central LA...Far
Southwest MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260210Z - 260800Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convective lines to merge/converge with some
internal cell training/repeating expected. Uptick in moisture
flux will increase rainfall efficiency and support up to 2"/hr
rates. SW to NE swath of 2-4" totals may result in scattered
incidents of flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad, symmetric and well
defined closed low dominating the Southern Plains encroaching on
the Lower Mississippi River Valley as the lead height-falls has
pressed through into MS toward W AL. The secondary/wrap around
energy and core of the upper-low is currently tracking along the
Red River with another internal jet streak and associated
upper-level divergence and DPVA for broad scale ascent across the
southeast quadrant of the circulation across E TX into LA. EIR
loop shows scattered overshooting tops along a west to east axis
of convergence along a pre-frontal trough dropping southeast
becoming more orientated to the deeper layer southwesterly
steering flow. However, the favorable ascent pattern has positive
influence across much of SE TX into LA, where low level cu-field
noted in 3.9um and regional RADAR mosaic are showing developing
narrow cored thunderstorms broadly from the central TX coast into
central LA ahead of the main line.

RAP/CIRA LPW analysis denotes core of higher theta-E air and
moisture values of .75-1" in the surface to 850mb layer across the
TX Coastal Plain into SW LA and up the MS River to near the AR
border. Highest buoyancy air also tends to reside closer to the
coastal region with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg along and downstream of
the main line. As such, additional downstream cells are
expanding/developing in the next few hours with broad LLJ over the
Western Gulf becoming increasingly confluent increasing overall
convergence for expanding convective development. In addition,
this flux of 1.5-1.8" total PWats (mainly below 700mb) and LLJ
ramping up to 25-30kts over the next few hours will support
broadening updrafts capable of 2"/hr. As the DPVA further drops
southeast, orientation of broader SW to NE wedge of convective
complex will support embedded northeast motions for short-term training/repeating as the overall propagation is steadily
east-southeast. Prolonged moderate rainfall with these embedded
strongest bursts should allow for a broader area of 2"+ rainfall
with localized totals of 4"+ through 09z with best probabilities
located from SW to central LA pushing toward SW MS toward the end
of the period.=20

Of note toward the end of the valid time (, the surface warm front
along the MS is likely to be steepened through depth as the
strength of the easterly flow across the Tennessee Valley and
central AL undercuts and increases FGEN/ascent plane for
isentropic development.

Hydrologically, the area has been relatively dry though this
morning's initial convective line has moistened up some of the
upper soil columns for greater infiltration and naturally higher
FFG due to sandier profiles ( 2-3"/hr and 3-4.5"/3hrs), should
help to limit flooding potential. However, scattered to widely
scattered flash flooding will remain possible, especially in/near
prone urban centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5d1ibIQqoy2aXcOcc4_EYbSlKQJXhbqWQzWMesf7IxipAbB29iD-dZzFPhGt3NaKn0XU= cjT68MhRi8kzHLaER4cLPCk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32779209 32569099 31869082 30959140 30189242=20
29479407 29069486 28529598 28809650 29909716=20
30869599 31439529 32319423 32699347=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260645
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-261230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi River Valley...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260645Z - 261230Z

SUMMARY...Large MCS cluster will continue to produce 1.5-2"/hr
rates and streaks of 2-3.5" totals as it progresses across the
Lower MS River Valley through early morning. Scattered incidents
of localized flash flooding remain possible, especially near
urban/poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows slightly unbalanced closed low
has core of vorticity swinging with weak negative tilt from the
center in SE OK across central LA. Further aloft, nearly ideal
diffluent dual jet structure is providing about 30-45 degrees of
split and strong divergence aloft to evacuate and maintain broad
meso-scale ascent along and downstream of the shortwave trof.=20
Regional RADAR mosaic denotes a weak MCV-like wave riding
northeastward along the western side of the progressive
squall-line located just west of ESF. Low to mid-level flow
continues to respond with strong LLJ of 20-30kts extending from
the upper TX coast through the Mouth of the MS all confluent
downstream of this wave. Total PWats are nearing 2" given the
overall piling of low to mid-level moisture and wedge of WAA
remains fairly unstable with uncapped MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg
up to the AR/MS/LA border and as high as 1500 J/kg south of Baton
Rouge. As such, the strong moisture flux will maintain 1.75"/hr
rates with occasional uptick toward 2"/hr where storm scale
convergence is maximized.=20

While the upper-low still is advancing at a solid eastward
progression, the deep layer steering flow is starting to shift
from SW-NE toward a more S to NNE angle. Downstream
training/repeating will continue to allow for 2-3.5" streaks of
rainfall in a 2-3 hour period generally between I-20 and I-10
mainly as the instability reduces further north with time. More
scattered but stronger cells may be capable of slightly higher
rates, but duration is likely to be a bit more limited in/along
the I-10 corridor.=20=20

Hydrologically, FFG is 2-3"/hr (lower north of I-20) and
3-4"/3hrs, so overall totals will be near those values suggesting
scattered localized flash flooding remains possible with highest
risk of flash flooding in urban locales due to impermeable
surfaces and higher runoff. So all considered, flash flooding is
considered possible through 12z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67Am17KXkXDdRIACj7ZxMsXJ217SGU2qQRBq71MGCB2Dw2JxLjp0OCR6bYw0QKEfeUOt= vQIX0lmai_G2QxP21xKO610$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33469015 33158953 32578923 31398933 29848973=20
28939002 29019097 29619317 30579278 31869218=20
33109162 33419113=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261258
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261856-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1215
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261256Z - 261856Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered flash flooding will remain
possible through the morning and into the early afternoon across
portions of the central Gulf Coast as convection slowly moves
eastward.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows areas of heavy rainfall
continuing to move eastward across portions of southeast LA and
southern MS this morning. IR imagery indicates colder cloud tops
are being maintained, and GLM shows plenty of lightning activity.
This convection is being supported by strong synoptic ascent ahead
of a closed mid level low and within a strongly divergent region
of the upper level flow. Meanwhile, 30 to 40 kts of low level
south to south southeasterly flow is producing strong moisture
transport and convergence. The better instability is confined
closer to the coast, suggesting the highest rainfall rates should
be across southeast LA into far southern MS. However some of the
stronger low level convergence is farther north, which should help
compensate for the lower instability and drive some localized
higher rainfall rates here as well. The convection will continue
to progress off to the east, limiting the duration of highest
rates. However, some brief backbuilding/training of cells into the
strong low level inflow will continue to support some areas of
more persistent rainfall rates. Hourly rainfall should continue to
locally get into the 2-3" range.

Recent HRRR runs continue to indicate 1-3" of rain within the MPD
area, with localized totals over 3". Recent RRFS runs are a bit
higher, showing localized max values over 5" through 19z. Overall
think a compromise of the two is most likely, with localized
rainfall amounts getting into the 3-5" range through 19z where
some brief backbuilding is able to locally extend the duration of
higher rates. Will also note that the HRRR is probably a bit slow
with the eastward progression of the convection, with the RRFS
probably better with the idea of heavier rainfall totals getting
into coastal AL by later this morning.

FFG is quite high across this area, generally 3" in one hour and
4" in 3 hours. It seems unlikely this will get exceeded on a
widespread basis, however where some brief training can occur we
should be able to continue to locally exceed these amounts. Thus
an isolated to scattered flash flood risk is likely to continue,
with an emphasis on urban areas where runoff is enhanced.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-CVi1ln5byFJMQcIWGGY0CoTOnqyzzqDQAMZWm7T1h3sAbJKTef1dloAvCWRAzSZ0Bk= No94LJRzuGDbyWJknbDfBzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31838994 31688862 31408795 30418726 29388857=20
28908922 28918978 29279039 30039039 30549035=20
30829040 31299048=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262103
FFGMPD
FLZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
502 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Space Coast region into central portions of FL
Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262100Z - 270300Z

Summary...Rainfall rates as high as 3"+/hr with slow moving
thunderstorms to result in short-term isolated totals of 5"+ with
localized flash flooding likely.

Discussion...Mid-level dry air has eroded sufficiently to allow
for deep convection to take root across portions of the central FL
Peninsula, becoming most robust along the eastern Space Coast
region where low-level convergence has become maximized along the
coast (with weaker, generally more progressive convection
extending well to the west along a weak surface front/thetaE
gradient). The mesoscale environment is characterized by PWs of
1.5-1.8" (already near the 90th percentile, and may increase to
beyond 2.0" locally with continued upscale growth of convection),
plentiful instability (SB CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), and effective
bulk shear of 30-40 kts (also near the 90th percentile, per XMR
sounding climatology).

Hi-res models trended quite wetter (and in surprisingly strong
agreement) with the 12z cycle, as both the HREF and REFS indicate
high odds of localized 5" exceedance through 03z (near 60% and 50% respectively, per 40-km neighborhood exceedance probabilities).
This is near the corresponding 6-hr FFG threshold, though much of
these totals could occur in a 3-hr period or less (as evidenced by
estimated hourly rainfall near 3" from the first evident supercell
near the Space Coast Regional Airport, which is nearly stationary
in accordance with the bunkers right-mover vectors indicating
motions of 5 kts or less). Given this strong hi-res guidance
signal and recent observational trends, localized instances of
flash flooding are likely (and may be locally significant in
relatively low lying urbanized terrain with poor drainage).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_vIIAFNLjgdXNTMhbd1y_rT6ZamAyYMGqcKgE9sFIHRTR7ZttcM_Y6etTl8pQxx2NO3f= trw-SU5qKo1h0zpR--pjDLM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29488163 29258104 28618048 28218076 28288150=20
28598201 28998214=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262351
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-270549-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Eastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262349Z - 270549Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage from the Gulf
Coast north towards the Space Coast. A threat for 3" an hour
amounts and local totals to 7" exists/continues, which would be
problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low near the MO Bootheel is moving
east, along with the base of its attendant upper level trough
across the central Gulf Coast. An additional shortwave is moving
to the north of FL into the southernmost Appalachian Piedmont.=20
Downstream across Florida, diffluent flow exists, which has helped
to sponsor thunderstorms with heavy rainfall which are increasing
in coverage from the Gold Coast northward. A weak baroclinic zone
across the central FL peninsula was acting as a reasonable
convective focus earlier, but recent radar trends suggest that the
coastline is becoming a better focus as CIN develops inland and
winds weaken inland after sunset due to frictional convergence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.5-2" across the state. Inflow at
850 hPa is out of the east-southeast while the flow aloft is
westerly. Effective bulk shear of 25-40 kts exists which is
helping to organize some convection, but not all, which appears to
about to lead to cell collisions.

The thunderstorm activity as a broad group should shift north and
possibly offshore northeast FL over the next several hours as 850
hPa flow veers more to the southeast to south. The 18z HREF
guidance appears to have a reasonable grasp on the current
convective pattern. Thus far today, hourly amounts to 3" and
local totals to 7" have occurred in east-central FL, which appear
to be reasonable upper bounds on future potential. These amounts
would be problematic along the East Coast of the state, which led
to a recent broadening of the Marginal and Slight Risk areas in
the evening Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Flash flooding is
expected to be at least widely scattered in coverage.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Nf-iyyNrwNGvgA3tnQptqT3PXkZXnS11TOp9xGoWMmY5pSKrz8khyqHg78FYEGCK5YC= mMtm-1Qnxn4U-2VdoBsZhRI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31118134 28818054 27308000 26207994 26038037=20
27148064 28338126 29288163 30458190=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262356
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-270549-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Corrected for amounts thus far in east-central FL

Areas affected...Eastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262349Z - 270549Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage from the Gulf
Coast north towards the Space Coast. A threat for 3" an hour
amounts and additional local totals to 6" exists/continues, which
would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low near the MO Bootheel is moving
east, along with the base of its attendant upper level trough
across the central Gulf Coast. An additional shortwave is moving
to the north of FL into the southernmost Appalachian Piedmont.=20
Downstream across Florida, diffluent flow exists, which has helped
to sponsor thunderstorms with heavy rainfall which are increasing
in coverage from the Gold Coast northward. A weak baroclinic zone
across the central FL peninsula was acting as a reasonable
convective focus earlier, but recent radar trends suggest that the
coastline is becoming a better focus as CIN develops inland and
winds weaken inland after sunset due to frictional convergence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.5-2" across the state. Inflow at
850 hPa is out of the east-southeast while the flow aloft is
westerly. Effective bulk shear of 25-40 kts exists which is
helping to organize some convection, but not all, which appears to
about to lead to cell collisions.

The thunderstorm activity as a broad group should shift north and
possibly offshore northeast FL over the next several hours as 850
hPa flow veers more to the southeast to south. The 18z HREF
guidance appears to have a reasonable grasp on the current
convective pattern. Thus far today, hourly amounts to 3" and
local totals to 10" have occurred in east-central FL. Believe
hourly amounts to 3" and additional local amounts to 7" are
possible. These amounts would be problematic along the East Coast
of the state, which led to a recent broadening of the Marginal and
Slight Risk areas in the evening Excessive Rainfall Outlook.=20
Flash flooding is expected to be at least widely scattered in
coverage.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9RRqNhRs5CLZzRZbOt3JS2A4damiKVzPADWhiDqYblGS-nEtnjHzg-jt43GBGOirN6bh= 55kGKxHuFiLsnqYkpmuYgQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31118134 28818054 27308000 26207994 26038037=20
27148064 28338126 29288163 30458190=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270214
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-270800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1013 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Southern Alabama...Western Florida Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270215Z - 270800Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient supercells in proximity to the
front and ample deep layer moisture flux will support rates of
2-2.5"/hr. Localized totals of 3-5" are possible in proximity to
urban locations along I-10. Localized rapid inundation flooding
is becoming increasingly possible.

DISCUSSION...KMOB RADAR along with GOES-E 3.9/10.3um animation
shows organizing thunderstorms across Mobile Bay. GOES-E WV shows
the core of the upper-level jet is squarely atop of the developing
cells but is shifting eastward bringing a more favorable larger
scale ascent pattern over S AL into W FL over the next few hours.=20
Combine this with strong shortwave digging across Arkansas,
sliding a bit negative tilt across MS further adding larger scale
ascent, while also strengthening low level confluent flow across
the Northern Central Gulf. A persistent stationary front hugs the
coastal zone from Mobile Bay toward Gulf county in the W FL
Panhandle, south of which as solid theta-E, but also strong
easterly flow is anchoring/steepening the front across the area
too, increasing vertical isentropic ascent from south to
southwesterly flow at and above the boundary layer with solid
strong moisture convergence.=20

The upper-level wave is helping to finally propagate the cold
front across S MS and WAA is lifting the front off the Gulf. So
cells and higher instability/theta-E air should lift into far S AL
a bit more with 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE. While deep layer
moisture has been advected eastward, the surface to lower boundary
layer remains very saturated with Tds in the low to mid 70s and
total PWats at or above 1.75", mainly in the sfc to 850 layer with
.75 to .9" per CIRA LPW. GOES-E 3.9um shows a SW to NE
confluence axis from the Boothville, LA toward the MS/AL coast.
This may be a solid trending axis for additional upstream
development. Also, given the proximity to the front, the low
level shear is fairly strong with over 35-40 kts of bulk shear,
but also nearly 200 m2/s2 of low-level helicity supportive of
super-cell structures. The combination of 45-60 degrees of
southerly flow from SE to WSW through 800mb at 30kts+ will allow
for high concentrated moisture flux convergence of these higher
values and support rates of 2-2.5"/hr.

Forward propagation near the warm front will be very slow as well,
with Bunker's right mover propagation vectors about 5 kts to the
east, further increasing duration and potential for localized 3-5"
totals. Proximity to urban locations from Mobile Bay eastward
along I-10 would support possible rapid inundation flooding
potential as the cells continue to strengthen/broaden increasing
rainfall coverage as well.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_bs5j5LJ0VqyhPFjGItx8AsYUVPG0vqpFBbeZ5_J27ViAmLa4NKJ2UfKLBgp6MVerhZs= HhRw-EPzAdQCBTaK_Of15OE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31288732 31198679 30868651 30528656 30318683=20
30208728 30228820 30998826 31248785=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270712
FFGMPD
FLZ000-271300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1219
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Areas affected...Westerm Florida Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270715Z - 271300Z

SUMMARY... Rates of 2"/hr and totals of 2-4" to continue risk of=20
rapid inundation flooding along the urban locales of the immediate
coast of western FL Panhandle=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9 SWIR and RADAR from EVX shows a pair of
narrow N-S oriented bands within the warm sector over the near
shore waters of the northern Gulf. Confluent flow has narrowed in
direction but speed remains about 20-30kts through 700mb.=20
Sufficient veering through depth shows WAA profile still
supporting 50 kts of effective bulk shear and about 200 m2/s2 of
helicity to maintain rotating updrafts. These rotating updrafts
continue to slightly enhanced the localized flow providing further
escalation of moisture flux convergence in the lowest 10-15Kft of
storm. Given bulk of 1.75-2" total Pwats (~1-1.25" per CIRA LPW)
will maintain solid rainfall efficiency with rates of 2"/hr likely
to continue with these back to back lines of updrafts. Deep layer
steering and Bunkers right mover propagation vectors suggest a
slight increase in speed to 10-15kts but also a slight right
deflection along the surface front and coastline, probably with
some frictional speed convergence due to land as well.

Aloft, the 80kt WSW to ENE speed max remains slightly upstream and
to the southwest, leaving the developing cells within continued
favorable divergence aloft in the left exit ascent region. The
shear is strong, but mainly above 500mb and is not generally
disrupting the depth of the rainfall generation region below
700mb. Slow eastward propagation of the larger scale
divergence/oblique height-falls across N MS/AL, duration of heavy
rainfall could be 1-2+ hours given back to back updrafts. As a
result a streak of 2-4" totals is plausible; however, greatest
totals may start to fall just offshore or directly along the
beaches. So while the area is sandy and has high FFG values, the
area still remains fairly urban and more prone to rapid inundation
flooding. As such, this style of flooding remains possible
through the early morning hours along the western FL Panhandle.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QqtMZV6dZlGOYQYuxmY2iKGSO0x53XygaABfgT6ZNCOMXwY3Ow0xU7zeNESQLbnDmf-= M77jWytZ_qNZgUuGxNeCG3U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30808683 30728600 30428520 30098505 29838513=20
29668540 30128590 30318660 30348719 30638722=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301933
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-310125-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1220
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Areas affected...northern NJ into southern NY/Long Island and CT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301931Z - 310125Z

Summary...Heavy rain across the Tri-State Area through this
evening may result in localized flooding/flash flooding. Localized
rainfall totals over 3 inches will be possible. Rainfall near 1
inch in 15-30 minutes can be expected.

Discussion...19Z radar imagery showed a low-topped squall-line,
oriented from south to north, edging east from 40 miles east of
ACY through NYC. This line was being aided by strong low level
convergence with 45-50 kt from the SSE/SE in the 925-850 mb layer,
located north of the triple point of an occluded cyclone over the
northern Mid-Atlantic region. The line of showers has been
accompanied by 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain in 15 minutes across
northern NJ into the Five Boroughs.

Moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast into southern New England was
already anomalous as sampled by area 12Z RAOBs, with PWAT values
of 1.2 to 1.5 inches. However, OSPO's ALPW has since shown an
increase stemming from Melissa's circulation, especially near and
below 700 mb, being drawn northward into NJ and southern NY. The
continued addition of this remnant tropical moisture should allow
for an increase in rainfall efficiency and locally higher rainfall
rate potential into the early evening hours.

While the line of showers has been progressive, there is some
concern for very brief slowing/stalling given the LEWP-like
appearance off the NJ coast, which could result in a quick 1-2
inches as this line continues to advance east through the
remainder of the afternoon. As a triple point low becomes better
organized south of Long Island this evening, low level flow will
maintain a southeasterly orientation, with possible backing.
Therefore, some orographic component to lift will be added into
the equation for the higher terrain north and west of I-95,
combining with increasing right-entrance jet ascent associated
with a forecast 130 kt jet streak on the east side of the parent
upper low to the west.

Farther south and west, instability is expected to remain weak
(briefly peaking in the 500-1000 J/kg range) but perhaps
sufficient to support a few additional heavy showers from eastern
PA and southern NJ, rotating northward into the Tri-State region.

Additional rainfall may result in isolated areas of rapid
inundation of water. Given below average rainfall over the past
few weeks and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the
region, any flooding that occurs is likely to remain constrained
to urban or other areas with poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9FIRi1NKBOaCg4MfFWriOWtP0K6LX9dCRMYV3e6rRPxWaiMPuzVhGNzgIyu1jio3gLQk= znq132MoWRgl8CwwSNIVZGE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42367414 42157352 42087251 41907210 41397212=20
40707286 40387404 40737491 41357535 42037519=20
42327478=20

=3D =3D =3D
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