ACUS02 KWNS 280656
SWODY2
SPC AC 280655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into western and central Louisiana tomorrow
(Saturday) afternoon or evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains and Middle MS
Valley tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in the rapid northeastward
progression of a surface low, with a cold front poised to surge
southward across the southern Plains toward the Arklatex. Seasonal
moisture will advect northward in advance of the surface low across
much of central and eastern TX to the Sabine River Valley, promoting
enough buoyancy, amid strong deep-layer ascent, for thunderstorm
development. Given the expected presence of a strong southerly
low-level jet and accompanying vertical wind shear, isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible.

...Eastern TX to the Arklatex and Sabine River Valley...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start
of the period (12Z Saturday) due to an ongoing warm-air advection
regime, driven by a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. While
low-level cloud cover should persist for much of the day across
eastern TX into the Sabine River Valley, pockets of occasional
heating will help boost surface temperatures into the upper 60s F.
Should this occur, mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates, may yield MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in
spots. The latest guidance consensus depicts two general focal
points for thunderstorm initiation. One is along the approaching
cold front in northeast TX into southwestern AR and far northwestern
LA by early afternoon, where linear convection may develop and
support severe gusts. Ahead of the cold front, low-level confluence
bands, over the TX coastal plain, within the primary moisture axis
of the warm-air advection regime, may also support thunderstorm
initiation. Despite the departing nature of the low-level jet,
appreciable south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (30+ kts), beneath 50+
kt west-northwesterlies glancing the Arklatex, will support
elongated hodographs and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear.
Transient supercells may develop in these confluence bands by
afternoon into the evening hours, capable of an instance or two of
severe wind/hail, and perhaps even a tornado.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281730
SWODY2
SPC AC 281728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Ohio
Valley and upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with a midlevel speed max strengthening as it expands northeastward from KS to NY. East of
this system, upper ridging will occur over the East as a trough
moves out of the Maritimes.

At the surface, low pressure will move from OK/KS into northern IL
by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwest across southern MO,
western AR, and northern TX by that time. A large area of high
pressure will remain over much of the eastern CONUS, with a surface
ridge extending into the northern Gulf for much of the day. As such,
low-level moisture return will be limited from the western Gulf into
TX, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward ahead of the
cold front. Southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 50 kt will aid
elevated moisture advection across eastern TX/LA, while the stronger surface-based instability stays generally west of the Sabine River.

...Eastern TX into western LA...
Modest heating is forecast over central TX ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, though much of eastern TX into LA will remain
cool at the surface. Coincident with peak heating, thunderstorms are
likely to develop as the cold front intercepts the moist plume over
northern TX around 21Z. While profiles aloft will be cool, lapse
rates will not be particularly steep. With MLCAPE perhaps up to 1000
J/kg within the theta-e plume, and effective shear of 30-40 kt,
marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Locally strong gusts may also
accompany the storms as the cold front surges south.

Farther south, additional activity may develop ahead of the cold
front over southeast TX as moisture increases. Low-level wind fields
will be weak overall, but veering with height. As such, a weak/brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a line of storms will push
south along with the surging cold front, with marginal hail or
locally gusty winds. Severe risk into LA is less certain, as the
surface air mass remains cool with elevated instability. SBCAPE may
develop into southwest LA late in the period, supporting low severe probabilities.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290629
SWODY2
SPC AC 290628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as a second
mid-level trough to the west impinges on the Plains states tomorrow
(Saturday). This upper-air pattern will support surface high
pressure overspreading much of the CONUS, from the northern Rockies
to the Atlantic Coastline. However, on the southern periphery of
surface high pressure, a cold front will approach the Gulf Coast and
FL Peninsula through the first half of the period. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will support enough
buoyancy for scattered thunderstorm development, given sufficient
lift due to low-level convergence along the cold front. A couple of
lightning flashes are possible over the central Rockies as a pocked
of cooler air aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the
passing mid-level trough. However, any scant buoyancy that develops
may only be adequate enough for lightning flashes that are too
sparse for the inclusion of thunder probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291646
SWODY2
SPC AC 291645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Gulf Coast vicinity...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday, with
one embedded shortwave traversing the Midwest to Northeast, while a
second shortwave deepens as it moves from the Northwest into the
Plains. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Plains
early in the day and overspread much of the country by early Monday.

Early Sunday on the southern/eastern periphery of the surface high,
a cold front will extend from VA/NC southwestward across the Deep
South and northwest Gulf into South Texas. The front will progress
south and east through the period, eventually moving offshore the
Gulf and Atlantic coasts and into central FL. Modest instability is
expected to develop mainly offshore over the Gulf and perhaps the FL
Peninsula ahead of the cold front. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop near the coast within a band of moist/warm advection aided
by modest midlevel southwesterly flow atop the surface frontal zone.
Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300652
SWODY2
SPC AC 300651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast tomorrow
(Monday) into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will intensify while traversing the central CONUS
tomorrow (Monday), resulting in surface low development along the
Gulf Coast late in the period. As this occurs, a broad warm-air
advection regime will become established across the Southeast,
resulting in mainly elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg
MUCAPE) ushering inland. A broad shield of rain with embedded
thunderstorms should become established across the Sabine River
Valley into MS by 00Z, progressing eastward toward the eastern Gulf
Coast by 12Z Tuesday morning. Most guidance indicates the warm front
and associated surface-based buoyancy remaining just offshore, along
with the anticipated surface low. However, some guidance (e.g. the
00Z NAM) hints at some surface based buoyancy reaching the shoreline
in the 00-12Z period. Should this occur, a sparse severe threat
cannot be ruled out. However, given that the guidance consensus
strays from this scenario, severe probabilities have not been
introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301714
SWODY2
SPC AC 301712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the
Gulf Coast Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Severe
thunderstorms are not currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front pushing into the northern Gulf today is
forecast to stall early Monday morning before gradually advancing
northward as a warm front late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
ahead of an approaching upper wave. Elevated thunderstorms are
possible beginning Monday morning within the warm advection regime
across the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southeast and Carolina
coast through the early morning hours Tuesday.

...FL Panhandle Coast...
Any appreciable chance for surface-based convection will likely come
during the 09-12 UTC Tuesday period as a surface low intensifies
over GA and supports inland return of mid-60 F dewpoints into the FL
Panhandle region. Despite this moisture return, poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit overall buoyancy values with most guidance
depicting surface-based lifted indices of around -1 Celsius. Strong
low-level kinematic fields in the vicinity of the intensifying low
could potentially support a severe wind/tornado threat if low-level moistening/destabilization is sufficient for deep convection;
however, most forecast solutions suggest dewpoints above 67 F may be
required for this to occur. Getting such dewpoints inland beyond the
immediate coast prior to 12z appears improbable (25% chance) based
on recent ensemble guidance, so any severe probabilities continue to
be withheld.

..Moore.. 11/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010700
SWODY2
SPC AC 010658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the
Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief
tornado are possible Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Atlantic Coastline, with a
surface low poised to rapidly translate northeast from the eastern
Gulf Coast toward the New England coast tomorrow (Tuesday). During
the first half of the period, low-level warm-air advection ahead of
and to the north of the surface low will support primarily elevated
buoyancy overspreading the Southeast and Carolina coastlines.
Widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms are likely through
00Z Wednesday.

...FL Panhandle...
During the first few hours of the period (e.g. 12-16Z Tuesday
morning), a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms (remnant
from the Day 1 period) may be ongoing along the FL Panhandle region.
Large, curved, and elongated hodographs may precede the ongoing
storms amid scant surface-based buoyancy within the warm-air
advection regime. Over 500 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap with 200-400
m2/s2 0-3 km SRH along the western fringes of a departing low-level
jet, supporting a risk for a damaging gust or perhaps a brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011728
SWODY2
SPC AC 011726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the Southeast to
the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are
possible mainly Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.

...FL Gulf Coast...
A broad upper trough over the eastern US will intensify as it moves
eastward early Tuesday. As ascent from the upper trough overspreads
the Southeastern CONUS, an initially modest surface trough along a
stalled frontal zone will rapidly deepen and organize into a strong
coastal low, moving from the FL Gulf Coast to the Carolinas by early
Wednesday. The front will sharpen and surge south behind the low and
upper trough as high pressure and strong cold advection develop over
the eastern half of the US.

Early in the day, southerly low level-winds ahead of the front and
deepening low will allow for modest northward return of modified
Gulf moisture over parts of FL and far southern GA. Despite a
relatively cool boundary-layer limiting the northward advance of the
more moist air mass, weak destabilization is expected for the first
few hours of the period. Isolated strong to occasionally severe
thunderstorms may move onshore across the FL Panhandle/Big bend
region before spreading northeastward across the northern Peninsula.
Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, around 500 J/kg MLCAPE may
overlap with large low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer shear
favorable for transient supercells/line segments capable of isolated
damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado. The severe threat should
end by midday as surface winds veer and the front accelerates
offshore.

...Outer Banks...
As the upper trough and surface low intensify and shift eastward,
the front will gradually move toward the coast with an increasingly
narrow warm sector. Numerous thunderstorms are expected in the
near-shore waters early Tuesday into the evening hours. While most
model soundings show cool and stable conditions near the surface, a
brief window could exist for a storm to move onshore from late
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. Neutral stability at the
surface amid very strong low-level warm advection could allow for a
brief tornado given supercell wind profiles. However, buoyancy will
be very weak and any risk will be constrained to the immediate
coast. Thus, while a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the
short-lived severe risk appears very limited before the low and
trailing front move offshore in the afternoon.

..Lyons.. 12/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020700
SWODY2
SPC AC 020659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the central
CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), aiding in the reinforcement of surface
high pressure and associated static stability across most of the
CONUS. While thunderstorm development should be suppressed over most
locales, isolated thunderstorms may develop within a broad warm-air
advection regime along the western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be
most likely as a cold front surges into the Gulf, locally enhancing
low-level lift within the warm-air advection regime. Forecast
soundings along the TX/LA coast and inland suggest that a stable
layer will be in place, so storms inland should be elevated in
nature. Given the expected meager buoyancy, the risk for severe
storms appears too low for probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 12/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021716
SWODY2
SPC AC 021715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the central
CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), aiding in the reinforcement of surface
high pressure and associated static stability across most of the
CONUS. While thunderstorm development should be suppressed over most
locales, isolated thunderstorms may develop within a broad warm-air
advection regime along the western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be
most likely as a cold front surges into the Gulf, locally enhancing
low-level lift within the warm-air advection regime. Forecast
soundings along the TX/LA coast and inland suggest that a stable
layer will be in place, so storms inland should be elevated in
nature. Given the expected meager buoyancy, the risk for severe
storms appears too low for probabilities.

..15_ows.. 12/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021744
SWODY2
SPC AC 021715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the central
CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), aiding in the reinforcement of surface
high pressure and associated static stability across most of the
CONUS. While thunderstorm development should be suppressed over most
locales, isolated thunderstorms may develop within a broad warm-air
advection regime along the western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be
most likely as a cold front surges into the Gulf, locally enhancing
low-level lift within the warm-air advection regime. Forecast
soundings along the TX/LA coast and inland suggest that a stable
layer will be in place, so storms inland should be elevated in
nature. Given the expected meager buoyancy, the risk for severe
storms appears too low for probabilities.

..15_ows.. 12/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030650
SWODY2
SPC AC 030649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Thursday)
across coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity. Severe potential appears very low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will gradually progress across the central
and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), encouraging surface high
pressure and static stability to overspread most of the CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm development. However, weak surface low
development should take place along the TX coastline during the day,
with the low translating eastward along the Gulf Coast into early
Friday morning. Warm-air advection ahead and to the north of the low
will encourage at least weak, elevated buoyancy to spread inland,
where isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible.
Current guidance suggests that the surface warm front should remain
just offshore, along with surface-based instability. As such, the
severe threat appears too low to warrant probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031655
SWODY2
SPC AC 031654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Western/central Gulf Coast...
Elevated convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning along
portions of the northwest Gulf Coast, with a surface front likely
offshore of the Middle TX to southern LA coasts. Strong deep
convection should be relegated along and south of this front in the
adjacent coastal waters, which should result in greater southeast
displacement of the boundary away from the TX/southwest LA coast
during the day. The front could brush extreme southeast LA towards
midday/early afternoon, but the bulk of CAM guidance indicates that
severe gust/waterspout potential should be confined offshore. With
the primary upstream shortwave trough quickly moving from the
southern High Plains to the OH Valley and remaining low amplitude,
the surface reflection along the outflow-reinforced front will be
weak. As such, while severe probabilities may not be zero, they
appear too low to warrant a categorical highlight over land.

..Grams.. 12/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040655
SWODY2
SPC AC 040654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast tomorrow (Friday) or Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will overspread much of the CONUS tomorrow
(Friday), prompting a surface trough to impinge on the Great Lakes
region while another surface low quickly develops along the northern
High Plains. Regardless of the synoptic weather pattern in place, a
relatively cool/dry, statically stable airmass will encompass much
of the Interior West, to the Plains states, eastward to the Atlantic
Seaboard. Therefore, thunderstorm development will be limited across
much of the CONUS. The one exception will be along the Gulf Coast.
Here, low-level moisture advection, prompted by an approaching upper
trough, will supply enough deep-layer ascent amid scant buoyancy
(e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) for a few thunderstorms through
Friday.

..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041729
SWODY2
SPC AC 041728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast Friday.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing over the eastern US is forecast to
continue Friday as several small-scale perturbations pass over the
Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the
northern Rockies while a stalled front will remain in place along
the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, a cold and dry polar air mass will
largely preclude thunderstorm development over much of the US. The
exception will be along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast
where a few thunderstorms are possible early.

...Southern LA to the FL Panhandle...
Along the stalled front, a weak wave low is forecast to develop
across the northern Gulf ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave moving
out of the southern Plains. Convergence along the front and ahead of
this feature could allow the front to move inland a few miles Friday
morning. While not overly warm nor moist, modest destabilization
could support isolated elevated thunderstorms inland and closer to
the coast through midday. Strong flow aloft and backing along the
front could allow for a few transient rotating cells. This appears
most likely over parts of southern LA and the FL Big Bend where
storms closer to the front could potentiality be near surface-based
for a couple hours. However, given the weak buoyancy and few if any surface-based storms inland for a longer duration, severe potential
remains too low for probabilities.

..Lyons.. 12/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050547
SWODY2
SPC AC 050545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts
of the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the nation Saturday through Saturday
night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much
of North America through this period. Downstream of lingering
mid/upper ridging just inland of the Pacific coast, flow will
continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch,
across Hudson Bay through portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast,
and another, across the central/southern Great Plains through
Southeast. Weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to
linger across and southwest of southern Baja, between an
increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to
subtropical eastern Pacific and ridging across the Caribbean through
western subtropical Atlantic.

In lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther
offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into the central
Florida Peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the
northwestern Gulf Basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward
northeastern Gulf coastal areas Saturday night.

...Northeastern Gulf coast/Florida Peninsula...
Low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across
the central Florida Peninsula during the day Saturday. While this
could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective development by late Saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level
temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to
limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or
two.

Better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late Saturday
night across the northeastern Gulf, aided by forcing for ascent
downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern Great
Plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the
subtropics. This might include convection rooted with lift
associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north
as coastal southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend vicinity.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051652
SWODY2
SPC AC 051650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move
offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a
midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move
southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS
Valley.

Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential
across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly
isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the
FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the
central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is
expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where
thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060542
SWODY2
SPC AC 060541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the
central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild
offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while
being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this
period. Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the
larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay
vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while
at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within
another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great
Plains through Southeast.

This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level
height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late
Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin. Downstream, a
weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving
frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with
subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western
Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly
across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday
evening. However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly
low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary
layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and
become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening.
It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of
thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold
front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor.

At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the
environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe
weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or
two. With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings
do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong
deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb. At this
point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to
introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other
model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061651
SWODY2
SPC AC 061649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of
Florida. Severe potential appears low at this time.

...Florida...

An upper trough will develop east from the Plains toward the eastern
U.S. on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of 30-40 kt 850-700 mb
west/southwest flow will overspread portions of the FL Peninsula
atop a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across
north-central FL. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs
with modestly curved low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the
surface boundary during the afternoon into early evening.

Surface heating will be somewhat muted by cloud cover, and
persistent showers/isolated thunderstorms in the warm advection
regime to the cool side of the boundary. Furthermore, midlevel
temperatures are forecast to be rather warm, limiting lapse rates,
and instability will remain weak (generally less than 500 J/kg
MLCAPE). This should largely limit severe potential. However, a
stronger, rotating storm offshore from west-central FL could
approach the coast during the afternoon/early evening. While a
strong gust or waterspout could occur with this activity, over all
risk appears too low/conditional, and limited in spatial extent, to
include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070502
SWODY2
SPC AC 070500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,
perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for
thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level
vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador
vicinity during this period. However, models indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the
Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad
ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S
Intermountain West.

One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,
across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may
contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the
Caribbean and Bahamas. In lower levels, an associated reinforcing
intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the
southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.

At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave
perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will
provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.

...Southern Florida/Keys...
Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for
thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing
front. Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for
appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,
limited as well.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071713
SWODY2
SPC AC 071711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida and the
Keys on Monday. Severe storms are not expected.

...South Florida...

An upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf
will pivot east on Monday, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by
late evening. Enhanced mid/upper westerly flow will extend across
the Southeast into the FL Peninsula early in the day, and weaken
with time through the period. At the surface, a cold front over
south-central FL will develop southward through the day, moving
offshore during the evening.

Large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the area, with any
stronger forcing focused well north of the region. Nevertheless,
rich boundary layer moisture will exist ahead of the boundary, and
weak instability is noted in forecast soundings. Poor lapse rates
will limit updraft intensity, and forcing along the front also will
be modest given veering low-level winds. Nevertheless, a few
thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning across South FL and surroundings coastal/near-shore areas. This activity may persist
into the afternoon before diminishing. Severe storms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 12/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080502
SWODY2
SPC AC 080501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at
least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a
downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this
period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is
likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies.

One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this
jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level
troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper
Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the
upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will
be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant
surface cold intrusion.

A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for
thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida
Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this
front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and
some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north.
However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial
low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an
increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit
inland moistening.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081658
SWODY2
SPC AC 081656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the
Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday,
resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity
is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests
that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south
of the FL Keys.

To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move
quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb)
surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold
front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the
Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop
within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains
during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday
night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust
potential currently appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081705
SWODY2
SPC AC 081703

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the
Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday,
resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity
is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests
that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south
of the FL Keys.

To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move
quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb)
surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold
front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the
Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop
within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains
during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday
night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust
potential currently appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090506
SWODY2
SPC AC 090504

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin
to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is
forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific
coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains,
through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still
appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced
across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging
short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning
the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but
vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after
emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of
others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through
the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related
surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return
flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the
wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable
conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible
risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091648
SWODY2
SPC AC 091646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Despite the presence of a deep cyclone moving across the Northeast
on Wednesday, low-level moisture return will continue to be
suppressed in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, resulting in
negligible thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Weak buoyancy
may develop across parts of far south FL and the Keys, but with
generally weak ascent and dry air aloft across this region, any deep
convection is expected to remain offshore.

..Dean.. 12/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100502
SWODY2
SPC AC 100501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians, mid-level developments across the
eastern Pacific into western North America are still forecast to
include a belt of strong flow veering to an increasing northwesterly
component across British Columbia and adjacent portions of the
Pacific Northwest, through portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains during this period. One or two short
wave perturbations on the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley
into western Atlantic.

Mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf
Coast states, but heights across much of the South may tend to rise
in the wake of a significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast
to migrate out of the Northeast through the Canadian Maritimes.
While progressing farther offshore to the north, it still appears
that the primary trailing frontal zone may stall/retreat
northeastward across the southern Atlantic Coast through Tennessee
Valley vicinity, while advancing southward through the lower
Missouri Valley and central Great Plains vicinity by late Thursday
night. At the same time, much colder air probably will continue to
gradually nose southward to the lee of the Canadian and northern
U.S. Rockies.

Models indicate that a remnant preceding front will become more
diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, and a
gradual boundary-layer modification may continue across the
northwestern Gulf as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop.
Some boundary-layer moistening appears possible inland across Texas
coastal areas, but forecast soundings indicate that this will occur
beneath pronounced warm/dry layers in the lower/mid-troposphere,
precluding appreciable destabilization through this period.

..Kerr.. 12/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101654
SWODY2
SPC AC 101652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

A broad expanse of northwesterly flow aloft will stretch from the
Pacific Northwest to the Southeast on Thursday as an upper ridge
builds over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough moves offshore
the Atlantic coast. Prior surface cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the
Rockies. With a dry and stable boundary layer in place,
thunderstorms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110530
SWODY2
SPC AC 110529

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of
the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a
shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short
wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level
troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great
Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the
persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually
lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient
tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of
colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the
Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday
night.

In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern
periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern
Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the
northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath
this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening
will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to
develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is
possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become
conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z
Saturday.

...Texas coastal areas...
Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various
models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing
conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower
through middle coastal areas late Friday night. Highest
probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak
thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal
waters. At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be
maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in
later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may still need to be reintroduced.

..Kerr.. 12/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111658
SWODY2
SPC AC 111656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper
troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will
be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture
along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys
will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing
a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central
Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the
period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse
moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is
expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder probabilities.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida
and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern on Saturday will feature a ridge across the
western CONUS with troughing across the east. This mid-level trough
will amplify on Saturday as a strong mid-level jet streak moves from
the northern Plains to the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front
will sharpen from the Ohio Valley to the Plains and move south
rapidly Saturday evening.

...South Florida...
Tropical moisture will start to advect northward across the southern
Florida Peninsula on Friday. If this advects far enough north during
the day, a few thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern sea
breeze. During the overnight period, storm chances will increase
across the western Florida Peninsula as a mid-level shortwave trough
traverses the Gulf. Limited instability should preclude any severe
weather threat from this activity.

Shallow convection may develop along the southward moving cold front
from southeast Texas to central Alabama late Saturday night, but
warm temperatures aloft should limit lightning potential.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121711
SWODY2
SPC AC 121709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

...Gulf Coast...

An upper trough will deepen over the eastern half of the CONUS on
Saturday, though stronger west/northwesterly flow will be displaced
well to the north of the region. At the surface, strong high
pressure will build over the Plains into the Midwest, shunting a
weak cold front south across the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity during the overnight hours. Modest moisture will be in
place along the TX coast into the central Gulf coast vicinity, with
richer tropical moisture across South FL and the Keys. This will
allow for modest destabilization ahead of the boundary. Weak forcing
for ascent, warm midlevel temperatures, and weak instability will
preclude strong updrafts. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorm
activity will be possible near the TX coast into southwest LA, as
well as South FL and the Keys.

..Leitman.. 12/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130554
SWODY2
SPC AC 130552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic by Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong high
pressure will continue to build south and east from the Midwest to
the Tennessee Valley. This expansive high pressure will push a cold
front into the Atlantic and the Gulf. Richer boundary layer moisture
will remain confined to South Florida and the Keys where showers and
isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity
may persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time.
However, weak instability should limit overall severe weather
potential.

..Bentley.. 12/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131712
SWODY2
SPC AC 131711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as
another upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Sunday). Surface high pressure and an associated statically stable
airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies,
limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. The best chance
for any isolated thunderstorm development will be along a surface
cold front. At the start of the period (12Z Sunday), a few
thunderstorms may develop along the cold front across the western
Gulf Coast as the front encounters low-level moisture and moves
offshore. Later in the day, the cold front will encounter a
low-level moisture-driven, marginally unstable airmass across the
southern FL Peninsula/FL Keys, where isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible.

Across the Pacific Northwest, cooler temperatures aloft (and
accompanying scant buoyancy) will impinge on the shoreline toward
the end of the period (06-12Z Monday morning). While a couple of
lightning flashes may occur during this time frame, the current
thinking is that the overall coverage of lightning will likely be
too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140644
SWODY2
SPC AC 140642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on
Monday.

...Discussion...
A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on
Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf.
Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on
Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A
strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest
northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level
moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with
the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability
on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141706
SWODY2
SPC AC 141705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington
tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east
of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the
northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder
air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable
air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the
Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited
across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the
Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany
the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant
buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few
lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop.
Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level,
will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger
storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may
take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150700
SWODY2
SPC AC 150659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest
on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also
possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning.

...Pacific Northwest...
A strong mid-level jet streak will approach the Pacific Northwest
coast Tuesday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front will move
onshore and bring the potential for some stronger thunderstorms.
Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the surface cold
front off the OR/WA coast Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stronger line
of convection is expected to develop along the front as it
approaches the coast Tuesday evening. Given the very strong wind
field (nearly 100 knots at 500mb), some stronger wind gusts may
develop within the convective line. Forecast instability is quite
weak (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE) which casts some doubt on the
efficiency for the stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface.
This is the primary factor precluding a 5% wind area at this time.
Instability will wane quickly inland and therefore, any stronger
wind gusts will likely be confined to areas along the coast.

...Texas Coastal Plain...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across Texas during the
day on Tuesday. Mid-level forcing will be weak, but a modest
low-level jet will develop across East Texas and persist through the
day. This will bring some return moisture to the Texas Coastal
Plain. Eventually, likely after 06Z, the combination of moistening
low-levels and slightly cooling temperatures aloft will result in
sufficient destabilization for a few isolated thunderstorms within
the zone of isentropic ascent across East Texas.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151622
SWODY2
SPC AC 151621

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the northern CONUS
tomorrow (Tuesday), prompting surface troughing across the central
U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Cool temperatures aloft will
overspread the northern OR into WA coastline areas, promoting scant
buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to support the potential for a few
lightning flashes. Across the western Gulf Coast, adequate return
flow of moisture, driven by aforementioned surface troughing, will
support marginal buoyancy and associated potential for isolated
thunderstorms early Wednesday morning.

..Squitieri.. 12/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160655
SWODY2
SPC AC 160654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
and the northern Rockies vicinity Wednesday morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the
Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated mid-level trough over
the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it advances east through the
day. A very strong surface low (~985mb) will move from British
Columbia to the Upper Midwest through the period. A strong cold
front will extend southwest from this surface low. This surface low
will begin the day in the vicinity of northern Idaho/eastern
Washington into eastern Oregon. It will move quickly southeast
through the day. It will move across the Plains Wednesday evening
and into the Midwest by early Thursday morning.

...Northern Rockies Vicinity...
A line of shallow convection will likely exist along a strong cold
front at 12Z Wednesday somewhere across eastern OR/WA into northern
Idaho. Forecast soundings show only limited instability, but with
additional forcing along the front, some stronger cores within the
line may deepen enough for some lightning generation. In addition, a
very strong wind profile is present which may result in some gusty
winds within this line. Very weak instability is the primary
limiting factor for a Marginal Risk.

...Midwest...
Moisture will advect northward from the southern Plains and into the
Ozarks Wednesday and Wednesday evening. At the very end of the Day 2
period (09-12Z Thu) this moisture is expected to interact with the
rapidly advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but
sufficient for storm development along the frontal zone by 12Z
Thursday. In addition, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen
Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Isentropic ascent
within this low-level jet axis, combined with increasing elevated
instability, may be sufficient for isolated storm development
between 06Z and 12Z.

..Bentley.. 12/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161720
SWODY2
SPC AC 161718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over much of the northern
Rockies on Wednesday, with a greater probability across the Texas
Coastal Plain. Sporadic activity may also occur Wednesday night into
the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough and cold front will move across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies on Wednesday, with substantial
cooling aloft and strong winds. Daytime heating will lead to areas
of weak instability, with scattered lightning possible especially
over ID and western MT/WY. Overnight, a strong cold front will surge
south across the Great Plains, and sporadic lightning may occur with elevated/weak convection.

Southeast of this system, a low-latitude wave will be located over
southern TX, with cool midlevel temperatures present. This will aid destabilization despite relatively cool surface temperatures.
Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the Coastal Plain and
perhaps toward the ArkLaTex late, however, given the surface high to
the east, low-level trajectories will favor cool surface
temperatures and elevated instability in most areas.

..Jewell.. 12/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170653
SWODY2
SPC AC 170651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level
trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across
the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will
continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by
early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low
will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing
cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast.

...OH/TN Valleys...
The cold front is expected to interact with the richer low-level
moisture early in the period across Illinois and Missouri with a
shallow line of thunderstorms expected to develop. In addition, some
weak elevated instability may develop ahead of this front as cooling
mid-level temperatures result in sufficient elevated instability for
storms. Low-level instability ahead of the front is expected to
remain quite weak (100 to 200 J/kg). A strong frontal circulation
should overcome the weak instability and produce sufficient lift for
lightning. Any updrafts deep enough to produce lightning, and with
minimal inhibition (seemingly around 55F surface dewpoint) may also
have at least some isolated damaging wind threat given the 60 to 70
knot low-level jet around 1km.

Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where
upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the
more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be
weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will
continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the
front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal
heating.

...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina...
Strong storms and potential supercells are expected over the warm
Gulf Stream waters Thursday evening. Some guidance indicates surface
based instability may advect inland across far eastern North
Carolina which would allow some of these stronger storms to move
inland. Current expectation is for stronger storms and 60+F
dewpoints to remain mostly offshore, so no marginal risk will be
added.

Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians,
some increase in storm strength is anticipated as mid 50s dewpoints
east of the Appalachians provide weak instability to fuel the
storms. If more aggressive inland moisture advection occurs, similar
to the scenario mentioned above, some marginal damaging wind threat
could materialize given the strong wind field.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171726
SWODY2
SPC AC 171725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential will be limited on Thursday, but isolated strong
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will move across Midwest on Thursday with low
pressure moving across the Great Lakes. A cold front will extend
south from this low with wind shift moving across the OH and TN
Valleys during the day and into the evening. Minimal destabilization
is forecast ahead of the front as clouds and early day precipitation
hamper heating. Mostly elevated instability is forecast, though
shear profiles will be strong. Despite a marginal/cool boundary
layer across the warm sector, deeper ascent along the cold front
could support shallow moist convection capable of augmenting gusts
with the frontal passage.

Elsewhere, moisture and instability will increase overnight well off
the NC Coast, but supercells developing over the water may
eventually skirt the Outer Banks of NC toward the end of the period.
At this time it appears the instability gradient will remain
offshore.

..Jewell.. 12/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180656
SWODY2
SPC AC 180655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night.

...Discussion...
A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front
extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday
morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak
instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s
dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south,
and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms
that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can
continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated
strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before
the front moves offshore.

In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across
most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this
thunderstorm activity should remain weak.

..Bentley.. 12/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181715
SWODY2
SPC AC 181714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great
Lakes into the Southeast Friday morning, and will eject
northeastward across Mid Atlantic and New England late in the day.
At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Quebec, with
a cold front extending south from NY into the eastern Carolinas
Friday morning. This front will quickly push into New England by
midday and will already be off the NC Coast. Southerly surface winds
will bring 50s F dewpoints as far north as NJ ahead of the front,
with low 60s F into eastern NC and VA.

...Northeast...Eastern VA and NC...
Strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher
reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection
from eastern PA into MD and eastern VA/NC Friday morning, which will
rapidly move east toward the Hudson Valley and extending southward
and offshore between 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate a cool
boundary layer and zero SBCAPE over northern parts of the frontal
zone, with minimal SBCAPE farther south. There may be a short window
of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving
offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates
aloft suggest minimal overall risk.

..Jewell.. 12/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190652
SWODY2
SPC AC 190650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough
over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great
Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend
across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with
an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico.

As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late
Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop
along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may
deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production.

Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper
Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to
near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region.
The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent
suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday
night.

..Bunting.. 12/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191728
SWODY2
SPC AC 191726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A benign pattern for thunderstorms will exist on Saturday across
most of the CONUS with a broad belt of westerly winds aloft and high
pressure over the East. While a trough amplification will develop
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, antecedent dry
surface trajectories around the surface high will maintain stable
conditions across those areas.

To the west, minimum weak thunderstorm potential may approach
coastal WA into Sunday morning as a low-amplitude wave approaches. A
sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated instability cannot be
ruled out as well farther south across western OR into northern CA,
but the overall risk of thunderstorms is quite low.

..Jewell.. 12/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200549
SWODY2
SPC AC 200548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Discussion...
Progressive/generally zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the
CONUS on Sunday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move inland
over the Pacific Northwest, with thermodynamic profiles potentially
becoming conducive for a few low-topped thunderstorms mainly for
coastal portions of Washington. East of the Rockies, surface high
pressure and continental trajectories will be prevalent with
essentially nil thunderstorm potential. Gradual air mass
modification and low-level moistening will occur over the western
Gulf. However, a limited forcing regime and residual capping are
currently expected to preclude thunderstorms along the Texas coast.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201705
SWODY2
SPC AC 201704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow aloft will become modestly more amplified on Sunday.
Upper-level ridging will become more prominent in the central U.S. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move into the Northwest during
the evening. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may impact coastal
areas of Washington and far northwest Oregon. Along the central Gulf
coast, a cold front will slow and become nearly stationary inland. A
weak warm/moist advection regime could lead to development of
showers. Given the slight rise in mid-level heights, residual
capping, and lack of greater low-level forcing, potential for
thunderstorm development within this regime still appears low.

..Wendt.. 12/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210637
SWODY2
SPC AC 210635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Model guidance continues to show an upper-level ridge and quiescent
conditions influencing weather across much of Lower 48 states on
Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern
Pacific into WA and British Columbia during the period.
Increasingly cool mid-level temperatures will support pockets of
scant instability near the Pacific Northwest coast. Widely
scattered showers and perhaps a few low-topped thunderstorms may
develop along the immediate coast. Farther southeast along the
lower coast of TX within a seasonably moist airmass, weak convection
may develop but negligible forcing will likely limit convective
potential with this activity.

..Smith.. 12/21/2025

$$

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