ACUS01 KWNS 141632
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this
afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.

...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico
today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the
surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop
towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An
attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across
central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely
provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is
forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface
high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front
expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the
central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.

Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central
to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds
through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued
filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it
still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to
late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this
region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to
saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.
Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase
from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually
consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level
south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.
Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with
southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally
greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more
favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this
scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion
into central TX at this time.

Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening
into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the
bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an
increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The
potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains
unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward
extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,
which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards
sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least
isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist
given the ample low-level shear forecast.

...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be
present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as
the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While
residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath
the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should
generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced
cells that can develop this afternoon.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 142001
SWODY1
SPC AC 142000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this
afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.

...20Z Update...
Relatively minor changes were made in portions of Central Texas
where stabilization has occurred behind earlier-day convection. A
line of convection moving into East Texas is still expected to
intensify later this afternoon as the shortwave trough progresses
east and the boundary layer continues to warm/destabilize. Some semi-discrete/discrete activity also remains possible in the
vicinity of San Antonio. Outflow pushing south and deep-layer shear
parallel to the outflow continues to suggest large hail and damaging
wind potential will remain isolated. See the previous discussion for
additional information.

..Wendt.. 02/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/

...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico
today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the
surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop
towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An
attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across
central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely
provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is
forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface
high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front
expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the
central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.

Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central
to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds
through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued
filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it
still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to
late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this
region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to
saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.
Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase
from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually
consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level
south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.
Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with
southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally
greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more
favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this
scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion
into central TX at this time.

Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening
into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the
bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an
increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The
potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains
unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward
extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,
which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards
sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least
isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist
given the ample low-level shear forecast.

...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be
present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as
the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While
residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath
the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should
generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced
cells that can develop this afternoon.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150029
SWODY1
SPC AC 150027

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight from
eastern Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes
along with scattered damaging winds will be possible.

...Sabine into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from TX toward the lower MS
Valley through Sunday morning, providing lift and cooling aloft. At
the surface, low pressure will move from the ArkLaTex area into
northern MS, with a cold front trailing southwest from the low.

Ahead of the cold front, the air mass will continue to moisten as a
warm front lifts northward across southern LA and eventually
southern MS and AL late. Behind the warm front, dewpoints will
likely rise into the mid 60s F, aided by veering low-level winds and
40-50 kt at 850 mb.

The combination of increasing low-level shear will likely result in
effective SRH values over 200 m2/s2, perhaps near 300 m2/s2 where
non-zero low-level buoyancy exists. Given the rapid progression of
the upper trough, a squall line is likely to be maintained
overnight, possibly reaching southwest AL by 12Z. Both damaging
winds and a few embedded/QLCS tornadoes will be possible as this
line interacts with the increasingly moist air mass. The main
mitigating factor to overall magnitude of severe will be the
instability values, with MLCAPE averaging 500-750 J/kg overnight.

For more information see mesoscale discussions #0078 and #0079.

..Jewell.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150539
SWODY1
SPC AC 150538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of
northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today,
with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt
will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer
shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL
into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will
stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday
morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an
approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front,
strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result
in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few
tornadoes throughout the day.

...Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...
A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late
Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with
the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward
to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into
central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds
will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line,
though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture
with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.

Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the
line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with
renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during
the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly
robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with
the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will
support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well
as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with
a few QLCS tornadoes possible.

..Jewell/Supinie.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151245
SWODY1
SPC AC 151243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much
of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.

...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast.
Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the
northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing
moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold
front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across
central MS-AL-GA through mid evening.

The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a
notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which
has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant
buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually
increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level
moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to
mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear
due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details.
Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the
greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning
late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity
moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA.
The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few
mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief
tornadoes are possible.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151626
SWODY1
SPC AC 151624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.

...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.

This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.

With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.

Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151953
SWODY1
SPC AC 151951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.

...20z Update...
A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are
in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though
some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly
warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of
weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep
layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL
Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong
convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will
continue inland for the next few hours.

A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central
Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the
last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may
support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.

..Thornton.. 02/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/

...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.

This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.

With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.

Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160101
SWODY1
SPC AC 160059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of
north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most
likely.

...Discussions...
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00
and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will
likely gradually reduce storm strength.

Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a
west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection
beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is
formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not
particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given
the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected
to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the
low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms
north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.
A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the
strongly veering winds with height.

..Jewell.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160552
SWODY1
SPC AC 160551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may
produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal central into southern CA...
A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and
evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At
the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA,
with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong
wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow
convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is
likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through
the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be
likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak
instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors
to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line
cannot be ruled out.

...Interior Valleys...
It appears substantial precipitation will hamper
heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE
evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model
low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears
lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low
probabilities have been removed.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late...
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific
Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.
Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong
wind gusts.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161255
SWODY1
SPC AC 161254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal central into southern CA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over
the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA
through the evening. Within the base of the trough, an intense
cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose
east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this
afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight.

In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will
migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and
subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening.
An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow
convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front.
Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead
of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts.
Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few
stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the
broader rain shield. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before
this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it
dissipates by early evening.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific
Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.
Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the
immediate coast.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161626
SWODY1
SPC AC 161624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal Central and Southern CA...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough
off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this
shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing
southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional
radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to
just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent
will continue across the region throughout the day, although a
southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong
mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This
stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing
band, or the development of a separate band farther south.

Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper
more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe
potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA
throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very
isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation
that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to
produce lightning.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest
tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped
convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front
moves through.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161932
SWODY1
SPC AC 161931

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Bands of
thunderstorm activity continue to move onshore across portions of
the southern California coast, with potential for gusty winds and
brief tornado. The threat will gradually shift southward through the afternoon/evening with the gradual movement inland of the
upper-level wave. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 02/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/

...Coastal Central and Southern CA...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough
off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this
shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing
southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional
radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to
just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent
will continue across the region throughout the day, although a
southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong
mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This
stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing
band, or the development of a separate band farther south.

Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper
more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe
potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA
throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very
isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation
that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to
produce lightning.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest
tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped
convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front
moves through.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170041
SWODY1
SPC AC 170039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storm are not forecast through Tuesday morning. Scattered
storms are still expected tonight from southwest Oregon into
northern California late tonight, with isolated activity into
southern California.

...West Coast...
A shortwave trough and cold front will continue moving out of
southern CA and into parts of AZ and UT and western CO through the
night. Isolated convective showers and a few lightning flashes will
remain possible over southern CA through tonight due to cold
temperatures aloft and as secondary disturbance rotates through the
base of the trough.

To the north, another large upper trough with very cold temperatures
aloft will dive southeastward off the WA/OR coasts, with increasing
shoreline convergence with an attendant cold front. The 00Z UIL
sounding shows the very cold temperatures and steep lapse rates
through a deep layer, despite cool surface temperatures, with
isolated lightning offshore at this time. Later tonight, showers and
a few thunderstorms may impact parts of western OR and northern CA,
but severe weather is not expected.

..Jewell.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170535
SWODY1
SPC AC 170534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas much of
California Tuesday, and across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into
the Upper Midwest late. The risk for severe storms appears low.

...Pacific Coastal States...
An upper low will drop south toward the coastal Pacific Northwest
today as a strong upper speed max noses into central CA by 00Z. This
feature will translate southward overnight and into southern CA by
12Z Wed. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will
exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE despite cool
surface conditions. While favorable shear profiles will develop
southward through the central valleys, surface temperatures will
largely be in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s F, with generally limited
heating. Very small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest
convection given long hodographs and such cold temperatures aloft,
but severe storms are not currently forecast.

...Mid MO Valley / Upper Midwest...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Plains today, with a
strong speed max aloft from NM into KS by 00Z. The strongest cooling
aloft and lift will occur from NE into the Dakotas, and into western
MN/IA be evening. Low pressure will develop into SD during the
afternoon, with a cold front pushing toward the mid MO Valley. While
surface heating as well as boundary-layer mixing will steepen
low-level lapse rates in the veered flow, it appears capping may
hold atop the plume of 40s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out through 00Z, but a
greater chance will exist as minimal elevated instability develops
near the nose of the 850 mb jet with lift focused across MN and WI.
Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail
with this elevated activity.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171257
SWODY1
SPC AC 171255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe storms appears low, but isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across parts of the West, and across the Upper
Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.

...Western States/Coastal California...
A prominent upper-level trough will continue to settle
south-southeastward along the West Coast through tonight, with a
strong upper speed max nosing across central/southern California
late today into tonight. North of the upper jet, very cold
temperatures aloft will exist which will result in a few hundred
J/kg SBCAPE, mainly for northern/central coastal areas today. While
gusty winds and/or small hail could occur, organized severe storm
potential is currently expected to remain low.

...Upper Midwest...
Consequential height falls will steadily occur regionally by late
afternoon into tonight as a lead shortwave trough emerges from the northern/central High Plains. A related surface low will develop
generally eastward across South Dakota/northern Nebraska toward
Minnesota overnight. A moisture-limited warm sector, featuring
mostly 40s with a few lower 50s F surface dewpoints, will shift north-northeastward toward the region in advance of an
eastward-accelerating cold front.

Surface heating/boundary-layer mixing will steepen low-level lapse
rates into afternoon in vicinity of the surface low/front, and while
capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, a few
thunderstorms could occur before sunset initially across the eastern
Dakotas and/or far eastern Nebraska. Some convectively enhanced wind
gusts are plausible given the steep lapse rates and strong
deep-tropospheric wind field. Elevated thunderstorms will otherwise
become more probable east-northeastward into evening and beyond
across the Upper Midwest. Instability does not appear strong enough
to support severe hail with this elevated activity.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171632
SWODY1
SPC AC 171631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also
anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the
western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs
within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the
central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly
northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move
across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this
surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly
negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in
strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper
Midwest this evening and overnight.

Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop
slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots
around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level
temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support
isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast
throughout the day and tonight.

...Coastal California...
Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas
of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at
500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the
region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent
could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the
region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more
bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer
flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could
result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally,
there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest
potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in
the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas.

...Upper Midwest...
Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region
ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated
forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be
limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps
low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface
destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates
in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across
far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or
two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could
produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain
less than 10%.

Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during
the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable
east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and
overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support
severe hail with this elevated activity.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 172002
SWODY1
SPC AC 172001

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also
anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and
tonight.

...Eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa...
Near the base of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and a pronounced
100+ kt mid-level jet, strong ascent is expected to develop late
this afternoon amid a mixed and modestly moist air mass. Cool
mid-level temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F
may allow a few hundred J/kg of buoyancy to develop. This
destabilization and strong ascent may support a fast-moving arc of
high-based showers/thunderstorms, particularly where surface
temperatures reach into the 60s and dewpoints hold above 40 F.

While buoyancy will be weak, dry low-levels and strong
dynamics/background flow could support efficient downward mixing of
momentum to the surface. Isolated severe/damaging gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern NE into
west-central IA. Convection should weaken rapidly with eastward
extent

Elsewhere, isolated strong storms remain possible across portions of
the CA coast ahead of a strong secondary upper trough. This is most
likely overnight with a few damaging gusts or a brief tornado the
primary risks owing to very strong flow and modest inland moisture
advection. No changes were made to the outlook here, see the prior
discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 02/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the
western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs
within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the
central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly
northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move
across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this
surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly
negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in
strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper
Midwest this evening and overnight.

Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop
slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots
around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level
temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support
isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast
throughout the day and tonight.

...Coastal California...
Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas
of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at
500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the
region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent
could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the
region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more
bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer
flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could
result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally,
there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest
potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in
the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas.

...Upper Midwest...
Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region
ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated
forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be
limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps
low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface
destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates
in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across
far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or
two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could
produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain
less than 10%.

Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during
the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable
east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and
overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support
severe hail with this elevated activity.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180056
SWODY1
SPC AC 180054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
coastal Southern California through tonight.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of Southern
California this evening as mid-level flow increases with the
approaching upper-level low. Thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue overnight, with potential for occasional stronger bands
that may produce some instances of damaging wind. A low tornado risk
was maintained with this outlook, owing to the strong deep layer
flow progged to increase overnight.

High-based convection across far eastern Nebraska has showed signs
of weakening over the last hour, with a downward trend in lightning.
Guidance shows little in the way of additional development through
the rest of the evening. The Marginal Risk across this region was
removed with this outlook.

..Thornton.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180509
SWODY1
SPC AC 180508

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts
of the West Coast, southern Great Basin, central Rockies, and the
lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.

...Discussion...
A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS Wednesday
morning through late Thursday. Across the western US, a trough will
gradually shift across the Great Basin with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the Desert Southwest into the central/southern High
Plains. Forcing for ascent and cooling temperatures aloft will bring
scattered thunderstorm activity across the central California coast
to the Oregon/Washington Coast. Additional thunderstorm development
will be possible across the southern Great Basin into the central
Rockies. Generally weak thermal profiles will limit severe potential
with this activity.

A secondary trough will continue to shift northeast across the Great
Lakes Region. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
along an eastward moving front within a narrow region of warm air
advection. Given the generally narrow/weak region of marginal
instability, activity is this region is expected to remain
sub-severe.

..Thornton/Squitieri.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181233
SWODY1
SPC AC 181232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
With an amplified large-scale pattern over the CONUS, an upper low
will continue to cross the Upper Midwest toward Lake Superior, with
preceding warm/moist advection and DPVA contributing to isolated
thunderstorms across parts of the Great Lakes region, mainly early
today.

In the West, a band of convection will continue to move inland early
this morning across coastal southern California in association with
a cold front. Diminishing convective potential is otherwise expected
today across most of California. However, isolated thunderstorm will
be possible later this afternoon and tonight across the coastal
Pacific Northwest and northern California as a secondary shortwave
trough digs southward along the coast. Isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible across the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies
mainly this afternoon. Here, sufficient diurnal mixing and a zone of
stronger mid-level southwesterly flow aloft could account for some
convectively enhanced wind gusts, but overall severe potential
should remain minimal.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181630
SWODY1
SPC AC 181629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a very active upper pattern with
numerous shortwave troughs embedded within the broad troughing that
covers the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series is currently
maturing over the Upper Midwest, with evolution into a cyclone
expected by this evening. A pair of lower amplitude shortwaves exist
farther west, one entering the central Plains and another over the
southern Great Basin. Lastly, a strong shortwave is currently
dropping quickly southward through the northeast Pacific, preceded
by yet another low-amplitude shortwave moving into the central CA
Coast.

All of these waves are displaced either north or west of the better
low-level moisture, which is in place from central TX to the central
Gulf Coast. This displacement will mitigate the overall severe
potential, although thunderstorms are still expected across several
areas, including the central Intermountain West into the central
Rockies ahead of the southern Great Basin shortwave, and along the
West Coast as the northeast Pacific shortwave drops south along the
coast. Highest coverage ahead of the Great Basin wave will likely
occur along the UT/CO this evening. Highest coverage along the West
Coast is anticipated along OR coast where multiple bands should move
through during the period. A secondary max is likely farther south
in the Monterey Bay Vicinity late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

Isolated elevated thunderstorms also remain possible this afternoon
from Lower MI into northeast OH/northwestern PA as the vorticity max
currently over OH moves into the region. Mid-levels will be dry but
lapse rates will be steep, and there could be just enough low-level
moisture to support limited buoyancy and a few thunderstorms as the
vorticity max moves through.

Lastly, strengthening low-level flow within the moistening low-level
airmass could support a few isolated thunderstorms across Middle TN
and adjacent far south-central KY tonight.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181957
SWODY1
SPC AC 181956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes were made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast
based on recent observational trends. See the previous discussion
for additional information.

..Wendt.. 02/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a very active upper pattern with
numerous shortwave troughs embedded within the broad troughing that
covers the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series is currently
maturing over the Upper Midwest, with evolution into a cyclone
expected by this evening. A pair of lower amplitude shortwaves exist
farther west, one entering the central Plains and another over the
southern Great Basin. Lastly, a strong shortwave is currently
dropping quickly southward through the northeast Pacific, preceded
by yet another low-amplitude shortwave moving into the central CA
Coast.

All of these waves are displaced either north or west of the better
low-level moisture, which is in place from central TX to the central
Gulf Coast. This displacement will mitigate the overall severe
potential, although thunderstorms are still expected across several
areas, including the central Intermountain West into the central
Rockies ahead of the southern Great Basin shortwave, and along the
West Coast as the northeast Pacific shortwave drops south along the
coast. Highest coverage ahead of the Great Basin wave will likely
occur along the UT/CO this evening. Highest coverage along the West
Coast is anticipated along OR coast where multiple bands should move
through during the period. A secondary max is likely farther south
in the Monterey Bay Vicinity late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

Isolated elevated thunderstorms also remain possible this afternoon
from Lower MI into northeast OH/northwestern PA as the vorticity max
currently over OH moves into the region. Mid-levels will be dry but
lapse rates will be steep, and there could be just enough low-level
moisture to support limited buoyancy and a few thunderstorms as the
vorticity max moves through.

Lastly, strengthening low-level flow within the moistening low-level
airmass could support a few isolated thunderstorms across Middle TN
and adjacent far south-central KY tonight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190057
SWODY1
SPC AC 190055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A negative-tilt shortwave trough responsible for isolated
thunderstorms over eastern Lower MI this evening will continue to
lift north across the Great Lakes, while westerly winds at 850 mb
maintain a degree of instability over southwest Ontario and perhaps
into parts of western NY. Thunderstorm chances here will be
relatively low.

To the south, height falls will occur overnight across the Mid MS
and OH Valleys as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across KS
and OK. Isolated activity may occur into Thursday morning from parts
of MO into TN and IL/IN as elevated instability develops within a
subtle warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough.

Elsewhere, lift will increase across northern CA as a shortwave
trough dives southeastward just offshore. Cold temperatures aloft
and relatively warmer air near the coast may yield a few lightning
flashes overnight.

..Jewell.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190535
SWODY1
SPC AC 190534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI
ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large
hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong
gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.

...Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley...
Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and
into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify
across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in
the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the
Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with
50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH
Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles
between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs.

Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower
MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel
winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over
much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH.
Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms
are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally
spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps
extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity,
the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms.
However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail
farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH
Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie.

...Central CA Coast...
A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to
Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will
translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast
soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with
moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such,
locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front
pushes south.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191302
SWODY1
SPC AC 191300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind
gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced
westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over
the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low
will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley
toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector
will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F
surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of
Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening.

A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur
today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist
warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with
upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast
periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with
the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.

Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday
across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based
storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois
by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado
potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64,
across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer
warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete
development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively
long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards
possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few
of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season
moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to
surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late
evening.

...Coastal South-Central California...
Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this
morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean
boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally
strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191623
SWODY1
SPC AC 191622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline
extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into
west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across
central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the
moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north.
Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through
southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south
into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress
northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today
before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection
is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening
will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in
some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH
Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints
into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon.

These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in
modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a
relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to
strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be
displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast
shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The
general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat
compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized
storm mode and supercells.

The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the
afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle
lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave
should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this
afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is
not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce
all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust
shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for
several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of
veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is
possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the
evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but
limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest
probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to
be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening.

..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 192001
SWODY1
SPC AC 191959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast appear to be needed at this time.
Dewpoints have had a tendency to mix into the upper 50s F this
afternoon in the lower Ohio Valley region. Convection has thus far
struggled to mature/intensify as a result. Areas of southern
Illinois into southwestern Indiana should be favored for more robust
storm initiation over the next few hours as the shortwave trough
moves in from the west. See the previous discussion for additional
details.

..Wendt.. 02/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline
extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into
west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across
central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the
moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north.
Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through
southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south
into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress
northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today
before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection
is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening
will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in
some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH
Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints
into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon.

These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in
modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a
relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to
strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be
displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast
shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The
general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat
compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized
storm mode and supercells.

The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the
afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle
lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave
should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this
afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is
not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce
all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust
shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for
several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of
veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is
possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the
evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but
limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest
probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to
be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200100
SWODY1
SPC AC 200058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND OVER NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a tornado or two, large hail and
sporadic damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the Midwest
and lower Ohio Valley this evening.

...Discussion...
Scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from the
surface low in central IL eastward along a warm front into central
IN/northern KY. Area soundings at 00Z show modest instability, with
moderately steep lapse rates mainly below 500 mb. However, a warm
layer continues to spread across the area out of the southwest,
which is limiting instability. Deep layer shear remains strong
across the entire region, conditionally favorable for hail
production. Low-level shear in association with the warm front and
40-50 kt 850 mb flow will also support a continued supercell and
possibly tornado risk primarily along the warm front. Otherwise,
sufficient elevated instability ahead of the low may support
sporadic marginal hail from IL across the remainder of IN and OH.

For southern KY into TN, more of a conditional risk of strong to
severe storms remains. The 00Z BNA sounding shows a supercell wind
profile, with modest moisture/instability. As the cold front pushed
east this evening, a supercell or two cannot be ruled out assuming
weak convergence along the front is enough to initiate storms.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 103.

..Jewell.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200450
SWODY1
SPC AC 200448

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid
Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the
Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving
offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong
westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds.

To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west
fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move
northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing
southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the
southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral.
While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm
advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm
profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong
deep-layer shear.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201252
SWODY1
SPC AC 201251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes
into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal
Mid-Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will progress eastward across
Virginia and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite
this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the
front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but
strong westerlies just off the surface could yield gusty winds.

The south-southwest extent of front will decelerate today and then
generally stall, orienting in a west/southwest-east/northeast
fashion across Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama
and the middle part of Georgia by late today. Isolated thunderstorms
may become a bit more probable into tonight as weak ascent focuses
along/north of the front. That said, relatively warm mid-level
thermodynamic profiles may limit the prevalence of lightning, as
well as any consideration for meaningful hail magnitudes. This is
even while elevated instability will quantitatively increase and
hodographs will be rather long, with steadily strengthening
southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL and 50+ kt shear
through the cloud-bearing layer. While a couple of strong storms
could occur tonight, thinking remains that the potential for severe
storms should remain low/conditional.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201629
SWODY1
SPC AC 201627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave
troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The
most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low
associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked
and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends
southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest
PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and
far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over
far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states.

...Carolinas into the Southeast...
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent
cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern
Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall
buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even
so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support
a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some
additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary
wedge front.

Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this
afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern
LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the
vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing
eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection
amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to
strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place,
supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts.
However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting
buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a
couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking
remains that the potential for severe storms should remain
low/conditional.

...Northwest PA and Southwestern NY...
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across
northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not
even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively
aided gusts are possible.

..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 202002
SWODY1
SPC AC 202001

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk across North Carolina was removed with this
update. Convection is moving offshore this hour, with minimal
development expected through the rest of the afternoon.

See previous discussion for more information on potential for
thunderstorm development overnight across MS/AL/GA.

..Thornton.. 02/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave
troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The
most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low
associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked
and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends
southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest
PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and
far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over
far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states.

...Carolinas into the Southeast...
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent
cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern
Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall
buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even
so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support
a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some
additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary
wedge front.

Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this
afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern
LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the
vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing
eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection
amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to
strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place,
supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts.
However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting
buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a
couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking
remains that the potential for severe storms should remain
low/conditional.

...Northwest PA and Southwestern NY...
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across
northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not
even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively
aided gusts are possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210041
SWODY1
SPC AC 210040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Midlevel short-wave trough is advancing east across eastern CO/NM
early this evening. In response, 850mb flow is beginning to increase
across the southern Plains. Latest satellite/radar imagery support
this with weak convection now developing in response to low-level
warm advection across southern OK/AR. Later this evening, lightning
is expected to develop with this activity downstream across the
lower MS Valley, but forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE/lapse rates
will be a bit too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe
hail. As 850mb flow becomes more westerly late tonight, scattered
convection will spread/develop across the Gulf States, especially
along/north of the synoptic front which will be draped from central
MS/AL into SC.

..Darrow.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210536
SWODY1
SPC AC 210535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN GULF
STATES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states. Damaging gusts,
large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are the expected hazards.

...Gulf States/South Atlantic Coast...

Strong short-wave trough is ejecting east across KS/northern OK late
this evening as a secondary 500mb speed max digs southeast toward
the central High Plains. As the secondary short wave digs southeast,
the northern/southern stream will become more phased over the MS
Valley by late afternoon. Net result will be to suppress the primary
corridor of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the
southern Plains/Gulf states into the middle Atlantic. As heights
fall across the Midwest into the northern Gulf states, pressures
will rise over the interior CONUS and the synoptic front should
begin to surge southeast across the lower MS Valley.

Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms have developed over
northern MS/AL, just north of the boundary within a zone of
low-level warm advection. This activity should spread east and
should be ongoing at the start of the period along the cool side of
the boundary. While much of day1 convection will be elevated north
of the wind shift, some boundary-layer heating is expected across
the warm sector, and modest SBCAPE is expected where surface dew
points will range from the upper 60s to near 70F. Forecast soundings
suggest more than adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized
rotating updrafts. Low-level shear is not expected to be
particularly noteworthy so damaging gusts and hail are the primary
concerns, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Convection
will develop/spread east along the frontal zone and the greatest
risk for robust convection will be during the afternoon/evening
hours.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211301
SWODY1
SPC AC 211300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.

...Southeast States...
Clustered bands of thunderstorms have increased across east-central
Mississippi and central Alabama into northwest/west-central Georgia
during the predawn hours. These elevated storms are occurring on the
immediate cool side of a front that is draped
west/southwest-east/northeast across the region. These storms may
further increase and organize early today. The aggregating storm
mode and residually warm mid-level temperatures/modest mid-level
lapse rates should tend to temper hail potential. However, the
storms may become surface-based with time owing to diurnal heating
cycle and potential gradual cold pool-related storm propagation
toward the warm/moist side of the front where upper 60s F surface
dewpoints will persist through peak boundary layer mixing. This
scenario will potentially contribute to damaging wind potential into
late morning, and more so this afternoon across southeast Alabama
into southwest/south-central Georgia. Additional strong/severe storm development may occur farther west later this afternoon across a
broader part of far southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle near the
front.

Low-level shear is initially strong but low-level flow is veered west-southwesterly and will tend to weaken over time. Regardless,
long semi-unidirectional hodographs, particularly above 2.5 km AGL,
will persist with 50+ kt effective shear. This will support
organized storm modes potentially including bowing segments and
possibly a couple of splitting supercells.

Overall, damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary
hazards, with some tornado potential as well, albeit relatively
limited and dependent on warm-sector development. While short-term uncertainties exist regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk,
areas such as southeast Alabama and southwest/south-central Georgia
will be closely reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible
categorical Slight Risk upgrade, mainly for damaging wind potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 211612
SWODY1
SPC AC 211611

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.

...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.

..Hart/Dean.. 02/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 211945
SWODY1
SPC AC 211944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.

...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 02/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 220026
SWODY1
SPC AC 220024

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Westerly flow is deepening/strengthening across the Southeast early
this evening as northern/southern-streams begin to phase later
tonight, in response to the maturing upper trough. Scattered
thunderstorms continue along the frontal zone from coastal MS into
southern GA, but have struggled to attain appreciable intensity.
While deep-layer flow is more than adequate for sustaining robust
updrafts, current trends suggest the primary risk with this activity
will be sub-severe wind gusts and maybe some small hail. As a
result, severe probabilities will be lowered for the rest of the
period.

..Darrow.. 02/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 220534
SWODY1
SPC AC 220532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula
during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from
North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington
State.

...Discussion...

Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley
late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream
and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period.
Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will
lift north-northeast during the overnight hours.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as
it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor
lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection
is not particularly high.

Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for
lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic
coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the
majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along
the northwest-north side of the cyclone.

Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early
afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and
some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops
within this warm-advection regime.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 221239
SWODY1
SPC AC 221237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur over the
eastern third of the CONUS, with a substantially deepening surface
low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, while a cold front continues southeastward and clears the Florida Peninsula by early evening.
Near and ahead of this front, isolated thunderstorms may
develop/move inland across the central and southern Peninsula today,
but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust
convection will remain low.

For the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, intense low-level warm
advection will contribute to some potential for lightning discharge
in mid-level convection, associated with evolving heavier snow bands
along the northwest-north side of the deepening cyclone.

Across the Pacific Northwest, significant mid-level cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the Washington coast by
early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop and some
potential for lightning is possible with convection occurring within
this warm-advection regime.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 221611
SWODY1
SPC AC 221610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New
England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb
cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur
with heavy snow.

Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front
as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also,
isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very
cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability
will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 221951
SWODY1
SPC AC 221950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
No significant changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 02/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/

...Synopsis...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New
England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb
cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur
with heavy snow.

Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front
as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also,
isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very
cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability
will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 230030
SWODY1
SPC AC 230028

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface low is beginning to deepen off the middle Atlantic coast
early this evening. Low-level warm advection will continue to focus
across the northern middle Atlantic into southern New England where
weak midlevel instability may prove adequate for lightning flashes
in the strongest snow bands.

Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes have been mostly confined to
offshore regions of the Pacific Northwest where marine influences
are contributing to a bit more buoyancy. Scattered weak convection
will continue this evening across western WA and a flash of
lightning can not be ruled out with this activity.

..Darrow.. 02/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 230519
SWODY1
SPC AC 230518

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep
convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period.
While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England
coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the
prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder
today.

Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to
support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the
period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region
and thunderstorms are not anticipated.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 231253
SWODY1
SPC AC 231251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Convective potential will be virtually nil today. While isolated
lightning flashes were noted overnight east of Long Island and near
coastal southern New England, lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles, in the northwest quadrant of the deep offshore cyclone,
will continue to quickly diminish and shift away from the coast. In
the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes occurred overnight in
coastal Washington, and a sliver of weak buoyancy was observed in
the 12z UIL/Quillayute, WA sounding. However, a trend toward
shortwave ridging and less-lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles should effectively end such thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 231552
SWODY1
SPC AC 231551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and associated deep surface low will
continue to progress further into the Atlantic, leading to upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and broad northwest flow across
the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and an accompanying
continental polar airmass will overspread much of the U.S. east of
the Rockies through the period, limiting thunderstorm potential.

..Squitieri.. 02/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 231932
SWODY1
SPC AC 231930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous forecast.

..Mosier.. 02/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and associated deep surface low will
continue to progress further into the Atlantic, leading to upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and broad northwest flow across
the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and an accompanying
continental polar airmass will overspread much of the U.S. east of
the Rockies through the period, limiting thunderstorm potential.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 240034
SWODY1
SPC AC 240033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Discussion...
A large-scale trough over the East Coast and broad/expansive upper
ridge over the West will maintain dry and stable conditions across
the CONUS. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

..Weinman.. 02/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 240543
SWODY1
SPC AC 240541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US today.

...Discussion...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge
encompassing the western half of the CONUS, a low-amplitude
shortwave trough will impinge on the northern Rockies during the
overnight hours. While the development of shallow buoyancy may
promote low-topped convection ahead of the trough, lightning is not
expected.

..Weinman/Chalmers.. 02/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 241250
SWODY1
SPC AC 241249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Cyclonically influenced upper-level flow will prevail east of the
Rockies with a quasi-zonal band of ridge-influenced westerlies over
the West. Moisture will continue to stream inland across
California/Oregon toward parts of the Great Basin and northern
Intermountain Region through tonight, with buoyancy expected to
remain minimal with essentially nil thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 241556
SWODY1
SPC AC 241555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge over the southwest US today will yield
relatively dry and stable conditions throughout the CONUS. No
organized thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Nevertheless, an
isolated lightning flash or two will be possible from central CA
into the Great Basin region.

..Hart.. 02/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 241916
SWODY1
SPC AC 241914

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below.

..Thornton.. 02/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge over the southwest US today will yield
relatively dry and stable conditions throughout the CONUS. No
organized thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Nevertheless, an
isolated lightning flash or two will be possible from central CA
into the Great Basin region.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 250048
SWODY1
SPC AC 250047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Discussion...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, several subtle/low-amplitude perturbations will overspread
northern CA and the Intermountain West tonight. While associated
cooling aloft amid a deep saturated profile will yield weak elevated instability, any thunder potential will remain limited/isolated.

..Weinman.. 02/25/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 250536
SWODY1
SPC AC 250535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central
Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys.

...Discussion...
Within a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft, a low-amplitude
midlevel impulse will advance southeastward from the northern Plains
to the middle MS Valley through the period. Despite limited
boundary-layer moisture through this corridor, steepening lapse
rates and focused ascent accompanying the impulse will support southeastward-spreading convection with isolated lightning potential
across the central Plains toward the middle MS Valley during the
afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Enhanced low-level flow
within a well-mixed boundary layer may promote locally strong gusts
with initial convection over the central High Plains, though weak
buoyancy should limit severe potential. Farther east, isolated
thunderstorms are also possible within a developing warm-advection
wing over the lower OH and TN Valleys late in the period.

..Weinman/Chalmers.. 02/25/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 251255
SWODY1
SPC AC 251254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
West-northwesterly winds aloft will be prevalent across the majority
of the CONUS through tonight, broadly sandwiched between an
anticyclone near Baja and an upper trough centered near Hudson Bay.
An embedded/modestly amplifying shortwave trough over the northern
High Plains, and diurnal heating/steepening lapse rates, will
influence isolated thunderstorm potential this afternoon across
higher terrain of Wyoming/Colorado into the central High Plains. A
few convectively influenced stronger wind gusts could occur this
afternoon through around sunset within a well-mixed boundary-layer
environment, but severe thunderstorms currently seem unlikely.
Thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop east-southeastward
toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley tonight as warm/moist
advection interfaces with a southward-spreading front, with weak
buoyancy expected to limit hail potential with this mostly elevated
convection.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251631
SWODY1
SPC AC 251630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the central High
Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.

...Central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough/speed max over southern MT/northern WY as it crests an upper
ridge over the West and moves quickly east-southeastward to the MS
Valley through tonight. Morning visible-satellite imagery shows a
cirrus shield extending eastward across parts of the central High
Plains atop a relatively dry boundary layer (surface dewpoints
around 30 deg F). A dearth of observed data sampling boundary layer
moisture above the surface lends to some uncertainty for this
forecast. Yet, westerly downslope flow is leading to warming
surface temperatures (mid 50s deg F) with additional mixing/warming
likely resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3 km
layer by mid afternoon. As the upper disturbance approaches and a
cold front --roughly delineated by low cloud cover across northern
WY/western SD-- pushes southward into the central High Plains late
today, isolated high-based convection is forecast to develop.
Forecast soundings show upwards of a few hundred SBCAPE and strong west-northwesterly flow within a steep-lapse-rate environment. A
few of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts may yield an
isolated risk for severe gusts (60-65 mph) primarily during the
21-01 UTC period.

Elsewhere, thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop
east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley
tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a
southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail
potential with this mostly elevated convection.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 02/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251949
SWODY1
SPC AC 251948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the central High
Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made - namely a slight northward expansion of 5% wind
probabilities to better align with developing convection across
west/southwest NE. Although this convection is fairly weak, severe
wind gusts have been observed across far western NE within the past
hour associated with convectively-augmented downward mixing of
strong flow aloft. The potential for additional severe gusts should
continue through the next several hours downstream. See the previous
discussion below and MCD #118.

..Moore.. 02/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/

...Central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough/speed max over southern MT/northern WY as it crests an upper
ridge over the West and moves quickly east-southeastward to the MS
Valley through tonight. Morning visible-satellite imagery shows a
cirrus shield extending eastward across parts of the central High
Plains atop a relatively dry boundary layer (surface dewpoints
around 30 deg F). A dearth of observed data sampling boundary layer
moisture above the surface lends to some uncertainty for this
forecast. Yet, westerly downslope flow is leading to warming
surface temperatures (mid 50s deg F) with additional mixing/warming
likely resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3 km
layer by mid afternoon. As the upper disturbance approaches and a
cold front --roughly delineated by low cloud cover across northern
WY/western SD-- pushes southward into the central High Plains late
today, isolated high-based convection is forecast to develop.
Forecast soundings show upwards of a few hundred SBCAPE and strong west-northwesterly flow within a steep-lapse-rate environment. A
few of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts may yield an
isolated risk for severe gusts (60-65 mph) primarily during the
21-01 UTC period.

Elsewhere, thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop
east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley
tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a
southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail
potential with this mostly elevated convection.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260046
SWODY1
SPC AC 260045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central
Plains early this evening. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate
across KS into western TN by sunrise, and this feature may aid a
weak frontal wave and weak low-level warm advection along/north of
the synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings continue to depict weak
MUCAPE, but likely adequate for lightning discharge within stronger
elevated convection. Risk of severe is negligible the rest of
tonight.

..Darrow.. 02/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260536
SWODY1
SPC AC 260534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Gulf states into the Southeast. A few storms may produce hail across
portions of northern Mississippi into northern Alabama.

...Gulf States...

Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging
southeast across the central Plains. 500mb speed max associated with
this feature is forecast to translate across northern AR into the
Mid South by 18z before the short wave deamplifies as it approaches
the southern Appalachians. In response to this short wave, LLJ will
strengthen across GA into NC before advancing off the Middle
Atlantic coast by early evening. While low-level flow will weaken
considerably across the northern Gulf states, weak convergence is
expected to aid convective development along the trailing synoptic
front as it settles south during the afternoon. Latest model
guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across
the lower MS Valley into northern AL by mid afternoon such that
minimal inhibition will be present along the wind shift. Forecast
soundings exhibit MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg as surface
temperatures rise through the upper 60s into the lower 70s. HREF
guidance supports this with isolated-scattered convection evolving
along the trailing boundary by 21z, especially the HRRR. Hail is the
primary concern with these storms through early evening.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261256
SWODY1
SPC AC 261255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLAMISS TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail will be possible from the
ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, mostly from mid-afternoon
through early/mid-evening.

...Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama...
Increasingly cyclonic flow aloft is expected as trough amplification
occurs with a shortwave trough spreading southeastward across the
south-central Plains, toward the Ozarks/ArkLaTex this evening, and
the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight. A plume of relatively
steep mid-level lapse rates will similarly advect southeastward atop
a modestly moist air mass to the south of a southward-spreading
front regionally. While southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL
will be modest-strength and tend to weaken over time, strong
mid/high-level winds will yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting
the potential for severe storms including some supercells as storms
develop and intensify through mid/late afternoon. Severe hail is
expected to be the primary hazard.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261624
SWODY1
SPC AC 261622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLAMISS
EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be
possible from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, mostly from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening.

...Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows scattered to
overcast cloud cover from southern AR/northern LA eastward into
eastern AL. Surface temperatures are gradually warming through the
mid 60s into the lower 70s deg F in areas void of extensive clouds,
mainly from west-central AL westward.

A mid-level disturbance over the central High Plains is forecast to
quickly move southeastward into the ArkLaMiss by late tonight. As
the upper system approaches, a cold front draped from southeast OK
eastward along the MS-TN border is forecast to accelerate
southeastward this evening and through much of the central Gulf
Coast states through tonight.

Modest mid-level cold-air advection will continue through the
afternoon and steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates across MS/AL. The
advection of the mid-level lapse rate plume and additional heating
will combine to increase buoyancy (ranging from 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE
west, to less than 500 J/kg east). Guidance is consistent in
showing weak low-level flow, but strong mid/high-level winds will
yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting the potential for severe
storms including some supercells as storms develop and intensify
through mid/late afternoon. Both the prospects for appreciable
destabilization and probable widely scattered coverage of an initial
supercell storm mode, lend confidence for upgrading severe hail
probabilities (Slight Risk). A gradual waning in storm intensity is
expected through the evening as instability lessens and a transition
to less organized storm modes occur.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 02/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261933
SWODY1
SPC AC 261931

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be
possible from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, through early/mid-evening.

...20z Update - ArkLaMiss/Deep-South...

Based on latest surface observation trends, the Slight risk (level 2
of 5) has been expanded a small amount eastward across portions of
west-central AL. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s
amid low/mid 60s F dewpoints. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
warm/moist boundary layer are supporting a corridor of around 1000
J/kg MLCAPE into west-central AL. This may support stronger/better
organized updrafts and a risk for large hail.

The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has also been expanded north and
eastward across northern and central AL. Trends in CAMs guidance
(specifically FV3/RRFS members) suggest a couple of storms may
develop further north. Furthermore, RAP forecast soundings appear to
be representing the boundary layer well, and suggest any storm
moving across northern into east-central AL could produce isolated
hail.

For more details on short term severe potential, reference Mesoscale
Discussion 119.

..Leitman.. 02/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026/

...Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows scattered to
overcast cloud cover from southern AR/northern LA eastward into
eastern AL. Surface temperatures are gradually warming through the
mid 60s into the lower 70s deg F in areas void of extensive clouds,
mainly from west-central AL westward.

A mid-level disturbance over the central High Plains is forecast to
quickly move southeastward into the ArkLaMiss by late tonight. As
the upper system approaches, a cold front draped from southeast OK
eastward along the MS-TN border is forecast to accelerate
southeastward this evening and through much of the central Gulf
Coast states through tonight.

Modest mid-level cold-air advection will continue through the
afternoon and steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates across MS/AL. The
advection of the mid-level lapse rate plume and additional heating
will combine to increase buoyancy (ranging from 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE
west, to less than 500 J/kg east). Guidance is consistent in
showing weak low-level flow, but strong mid/high-level winds will
yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting the potential for severe
storms including some supercells as storms develop and intensify
through mid/late afternoon. Both the prospects for appreciable
destabilization and probable widely scattered coverage of an initial
supercell storm mode, lend confidence for upgrading severe hail
probabilities (Slight Risk). A gradual waning in storm intensity is
expected through the evening as instability lessens and a transition
to less organized storm modes occur.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270037
SWODY1
SPC AC 270035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, are expected to continue from
the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama this evening. A few storms
may produce hail and locally strong wind gusts.

...01z Update...

Notable midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across
northern OK/southern MO early this evening. Synoptic front has
settled south to a position from southeast TN-northern MS-central
AR. While LLJ is primarily focused off the NC coast, weak low-level
warm advection is noted across the Mid-south ahead of the
progressive short wave. Scattered convection has developed along
this corridor, and several supercells are noted from east central AR
to northern AL. Latest MRMS data suggests large hail is observed
with the most robust updrafts golf ball size hail has been reported
with a few of these supercells. While scattered convection will
continue ahead of the digging short wave, nocturnal cooling should
begin to affect updraft strength a bit such that overall intensity
of this activity is expected to gradually weaken. Even so, hail/wind
are expected through at least mid evening until low-level lapse
rates begin to adjust to cooling surface temperatures.

..Darrow.. 02/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270523
SWODY1
SPC AC 270521

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently forecast.

...Southeast/Florida...

Strong midlevel short-wave trough is currently digging southeast
across the Arklatex. This feature will advance into the central Gulf
states by 18z before shifting into GA/FL Panhandle/northeast Gulf by
early evening. Latest model guidance suggests scattered convection
will be ongoing near the primary synoptic boundary at the start of
the period, and while deep-layer flow will be more than adequate for
sustaining organized updrafts, buoyancy should be too weak to
warrant much risk of severe.

As the short wave digs southeast, a secondary surface boundary will
establish itself across the FL Peninsula, and this wind shift should
serve to focus convection, with some propensity for more
concentrated storms near the FL Atlantic coast. Models suggest
modest boundary-layer heating southeast of this boundary, and
forecast soundings exhibit 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE; however, midlevel
lapse rates will be somewhat marginal with values near 6 C/km. At
this time it appears any storms that mature near the east coast
should be limited by the poor 700-500mb lapse rates.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271232
SWODY1
SPC AC 271230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula today. Organized severe
thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Southeast...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front continuing to advance
southward this morning across southern LA/MS/AL into the FL
Panhandle and southern GA. This front will decelerate and stall
across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave
trough moves eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. While
diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will occur ahead of the
front, relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development
of any more than weak instability. Furthermore, low-level
convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this
afternoon, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula
along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two
with gusty winds may occur, the weak instability, modest lapse rates
aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for
organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271612
SWODY1
SPC AC 271610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of
the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may
develop this afternoon and evening, the threat of organized severe thunderstorms appears low.

...Southeast...
A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across
the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to
stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level
shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward
across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded
across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest
lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000
J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected
to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused
across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of
the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may
occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak
instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear
all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should
remain low today.

..Jirak.. 02/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271942
SWODY1
SPC AC 271940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of
the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may
develop through this evening, the threat of organized severe
thunderstorms appears low.

...20z Update - Southeast...

No changes have been made to the outlook at 20z. See previous
discussion below for details.

..Leitman.. 02/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/

...Southeast...
A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across
the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to
stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level
shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward
across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded
across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest
lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000
J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected
to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused
across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of
the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may
occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak
instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear
all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should
remain low today.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280031
SWODY1
SPC AC 280030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorm threat continues tonight.

...01z Update...

Weak MCS has evolved over the eastern Gulf/west-central FL Peninsula
early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an MCV may be
embedded within the broader precip shield over Hernando county, and
this feature is shifting steadily east. Greatest concentration of
convection this evening will likely be immediately ahead of this
feature, with a trailing band of somewhat stronger updrafts trailing
southwest across the Tampa region into the eastern Gulf. While this
trailing band may exhibit a bit more intensity, the threat of severe
remains low as poor midlevel lapse rates are likely inhibiting
updraft strength.

..Darrow.. 02/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280544
SWODY1
SPC AC 280542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are
also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon
and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.

...FL Peninsula...

Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging toward the FL Peninsula
this evening, per latest water-vapor imagery. This feature will
encourage a surface front to settle south across the central
Peninsula during the afternoon which will serve as a focus for
convective development. With deep southwesterly flow expected across
the warm sector, the primary coastal boundary for potential robust
convection should orient itself along the eastern portions of the
Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted across south FL, and convective temperatures
will easily be breached as temperatures warm to near 80F. With 35kt
expected at 500mb, 0-6km shear should be adequate for some updraft organization, and possibly even a few weak supercells. Forecast
soundings suggest hail may accompany the strongest storms, along
with some risk for damaging wind. HREF guidance supports this and
the primary concern will be between 18-00z.

...Elsewhere...

A weak short-wave trough is expected to dig southeast across the
High Plains into MO/eastern OK by late afternoon. This feature is
expected to aid a few thunderstorms along/south of a cold front that
will surge across KS/northwest OK into the Ozarks during the
evening. Strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak
buoyancy, but steep lapse rates pose some risk for gusty winds with
this high-based activity. At this time it appears updrafts will be
too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe gusts.

Short-wave ridging will shift east across northern CA/NV as a
short-wave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by 01/00z.
High-level diffluent flow and weak instability suggest isolated
thunderstorms will develop within this zone as large-scale ascent
and moistening profiles spread into this region.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281253
SWODY1
SPC AC 281252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
A cold front will settle slowly southward today across the central
FL Peninsula as large-scale upper troughing persists over the
eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will continue
to advance eastward over FL through the morning and eventually
offshore by this evening. The surface front over the central FL
Peninsula has been reinforced by overnight/early morning convection.
This front, along with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze, should provide
a focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass coupled with
relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -10 to -12C at 500
mb) will likely support weak to moderate instability by mid
afternoon. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain weak and
mostly parallel to the surface front, modestly enhanced mid-level
winds and related deep-layer shear should foster some updraft
organization with thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon.
Both isolated severe hail and occasional damaging winds may occur
with the strongest cores, before convection eventually focuses
offshore by this evening.

...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.

...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak
instability.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281613
SWODY1
SPC AC 281612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4
corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity
maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue
east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US
trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and
southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday
morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the
aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a
residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help
focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this
afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak
cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will
result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain
veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer
will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger
storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75
inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most
concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of
Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along
the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach
counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the
Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing.

...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.

...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak
instability.

..Smith/Leitman.. 02/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281947
SWODY1
SPC AC 281945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast in North
Florida were made base on current observations. Mid-level ascent is
entering the northeastern Gulf per visible/water-vapor satellite.
This should continue to promote potential for additional
thunderstorms within the central and southern Florida Peninsula. See
the previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 02/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4
corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity
maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue
east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US
trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and
southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday
morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the
aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a
residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help
focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this
afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak
cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will
result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain
veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer
will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger
storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75
inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most
concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of
Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along
the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach
counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the
Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing.

...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.

...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak
instability.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010042
SWODY1
SPC AC 010041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Weak surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern
FL Peninsula early this evening. Scattered convection continues near
the south FL Atlantic coast, as deep westerly flow has shunted
better low-level convergence into this portion of the peninsula. 00z
sounding from MFL exhibited substantial instability, but latest
radar/lightning trends suggest updrafts have weakened considerably.
Primary threat for thunderstorms appears to have shifted offshore,
especially as boundary layer continues to cool over the next few
hours.

00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with a deep
boundary layer and only modest PW. Scattered weak convection is
mostly concentrated over the Ozark region, and this activity only
has isolated lightning noted with it. Given the weak 850mb flow it
appears the risk for thunderstorms will continue to wane this
evening.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a short-wave trough
approaching northern CA. This feature will deamplify as it ejects
into the northern Great Basin later this evening. Lightning may
accompany the stronger updrafts given the large-scale support.

..Darrow.. 03/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010537
SWODY1
SPC AC 010536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Florida, the
southern and central Plains, and in northern California region this
afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...

South Florida: Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably
during the upcoming day1 period as broad upper troughing holds
across the eastern CONUS with ridging expected over the Great Basin.
Cool midlevel temperatures will overspread the FL Peninsula such
that modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to sufficient
instability for deep convection. Weak height rises and easterly
component to low-level flow are not particularly favorable for
severe thunderstorms, though a few robust updrafts could generate
gusty winds or small hail across the southeastern FL Peninsula.

Southern/Central Plains: Sharp cold front will settle south across
OK/TX Panhandle during the day as the center of the surface
anticyclone shifts into the Great Lakes. Modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift across the TX South
Plains into southwestern OK which will result in convective
temperatures being breached by 22z as temperatures rise into the
lower 80s. PW values are not that moist across the southern Plains,
but weak low-level warm advection is expected atop the cold boundary
layer north of the front. Elevated convection should develop across
this region but weak buoyancy does not appear adequate for severe
hail with the strongest updrafts.

Northern California region: Modest midlevel height falls will spread
across northern CA ahead of a notable upper low that will approach
the coast by 02/00z. Left-exit region of 500mb jet is expected to
aid ascent across northern CA, and more than adequate instability
should materialize for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings
exhibit around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with cool midlevel temperatures and
steep lapse rates. The most robust updrafts could generate small
hail, but this activity is expected to remain below severe levels.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011232
SWODY1
SPC AC 011230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional large
hail and damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.

...South Florida...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak/low-amplitude
mid-level shortwave trough over the northeast Gulf. This feature
will track east-southeastward today over the FL Peninsula. Modest
ascent associated with the shortwave trough should aid in isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL in the vicinity of a decaying front, and along the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
develop across this region by peak afternoon heating, with
seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present (around -12 to -13C
at 500 mb). While low-level winds are expected to remain weak, some
enhancement to the west-northwesterly mid-level flow attendant to
the approaching shortwave trough should provide marginal deep-layer
shear to foster modest thunderstorm organization. Consensus of
recent high-resolution guidance suggests that at least isolated
thunderstorms may form by 18-22Z south of the front and along
various sea breezes while posing some threat for severe hail and
occasional damaging winds. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk
for parts of south FL with this update.

...Oklahoma...
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over the eastern CONUS
today, a weak shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from
the central High Plains this morning towards OK by early evening. A
surface cold front is progged to decelerate and eventually stall
along the I-40 corridor in OK, with modest boundary layer moisture
present to its south. A narrow corridor of around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon/early evening along/near the
front, aided by daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage later today
across OK, mainly owing to only weak large-scale ascent attendant to
the low-amplitude shortwave trough and somewhat modest low-level
moisture. Even so, the presence of elongated/nearly straight
hodographs at mid/upper levels and related strong deep-layer shear
suggest some potential for large hail and locally damaging winds if
any robust updrafts can form and be sustained near the front late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A focused Marginal
Risk has been introduced this update where the best chance for isolated/sustained convection is apparent.

...Northern California...
Large-scale ascent will overspread northern CA and vicinity ahead of
an upper low that will approach the CA Coast by this evening.
Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures and filtered diurnal
heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should support the
development of weak instability across this region through the
afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms should develop, with
the more robust updrafts possibly capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds. This activity is expected to remain below severe
levels owing to the weak instability forecast.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011626
SWODY1
SPC AC 011625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms yielding a risk for large hail and
localized severe gusts may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.

...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.

...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.

..Smith/Wendt.. 03/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011959
SWODY1
SPC AC 011958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma
into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts
may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.

...20Z Update...
The primary change made to this outlook was to add a Slight risk to
portions of OK, while also expanding the Marginal risk to the south
and west across southern portions of the state. Confidence is
increasing for the initiation of a few supercell thunderstorms
across central OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary.
Current OK Mesonet surface observations depict a tongue of 59-60 F
surface dewpoints, which are advecting northward across the southern
portions of the state, toward the OKC metropolitan area. At least
some mid-level clouds persist over and around the metro, suggesting
that low-level moisture may not appreciably mix out through the
remainder of the afternoon. As such, the current moisture profile,
beneath 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield thin
surface-based buoyancy profiles, with 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE by
afternoon peak heating. Current INX/TLX VAD profiles depict
hodographs with modest 0-3 km curvature, and RAP forecast soundings
suggest that elongated mid-level hodographs should persist into the
evening hours, resulting in appreciable deep-layer shear for
supercell structures. While buoyancy will be relatively meager
overall, a few hail reports at least in the 1-2 inch diameter range
appears plausible this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with an instance
or two of hail/strong wind gusts possible with thunderstorms
developing off of sea-breeze boundaries over far southern FL over
the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 03/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/

...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.

...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020050
SWODY1
SPC AC 020049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Weak midlevel short-wave trough appears to be partly responsible for
the MCS that evolved over eastern KS/MO this afternoon. This feature
will spread toward the confluence of the MS/OH River valley, and
heights are expected to rise across the southern Plains through
sunrise. LLJ will focus across the Ozarks into western KY late this
evening, and this should encourage the MCS to propagate downstream,
though it should gradually weaken.

Along the trailing cold front across OK, weak instability developed
along/south of the wind shift where temperatures warmed into the
70s. Even so, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak forcing are proving
difficult for sustaining deep convection. 00z sounding from OUN
exhibited roughly 500 J/kg MUCAPE. As the front settles south, weak southwesterly flow atop the boundary may instigate a few
thunderstorms, but observed/forecast instability suggest any hail
that develops would likely remain below severe levels.

Isolated thunderstorms continue along the southwestern FL Gulf
coast, as easterly boundary layer flow persists across this region.
Nocturnal cooling should lead to continue weakening and severe is
not expected with this activity the remainder of this evening.

..Darrow.. 03/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020531
SWODY1
SPC AC 020530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in
south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High
Plains.

...Discussion...

Great Basin to southern Wyoming: Notable upper trough is
approaching the northern CA coast late this evening. This feature is
forecast to advance into the eastern Great Basin as a 500mb speed
max translates across southern NV into southern UT. Cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates north of the jet favor weak
buoyancy along a corridor from northern NV into southern WY.
Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE could approach 500 J/kg by peak
heating. While deep-layer shear will be strong along the northern
fringe of the jet, current thinking is convection that evolves
across this region should not produce more than gusty winds, as PW
values are quite low.

Central U.S.: LLJ is forecast to increase across the southern Plains
into southern MO during the latter half of the period. Low-level
warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for potential
convective development during the overnight hours as the warm front
advances north into KS/MO. Forecast soundings suggest elevated
thunderstorms will not have enough instability to warrant a risk for
severe hail.

Southern Florida: Easterly low-level flow will persist during the
day1 period which should favor convection concentrating near the
southern FL Gulf coast. However, forecast midlevel lapse rates are
quite poor and this diurnally enhanced activity should remain weak
and sub-severe.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021232
SWODY1
SPC AC 021230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the period. Although low-level moisture will remain quite
limited, cool temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent preceding
the upper trough should encourage isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across these areas today and tonight. Instability is
expected to remain too limited to support an organized severe
threat, although occasional gusty winds may occur.

Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly tonight into early
Tuesday morning across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity,
aided mainly by increasing low-level warm/moist advection and the
development of weak MUCAPE. Farther east, convection capable of
producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of
coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all
these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021605
SWODY1
SPC AC 021604

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper
disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the
north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe
risk with this activity.

Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as
increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the
development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and
vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional
lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL.
Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should
preclude a meaningful severe threat today.

..Smith/Wendt.. 03/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021943
SWODY1
SPC AC 021942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

...20Z Update...
Thunder probabilities were removed along the NC Coast, as the
low-level confluence zone and associated axis of instability has
shifted offshore. Thunder probabilities were also trimmed over the
MS Valley region, with the remaining probabilities focused where
warm-air advection at the nose of a developing low-level jet will be
strongest. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may form along
sea-breeze boundaries over the southern FL peninsula, and a few
lightning flashes remain possible through the remainder of the
period over the Intermountain West with the eastward progression of
an upper trough.

..Squitieri.. 03/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper
disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the
north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe
risk with this activity.

Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as
increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the
development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and
vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional
lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL.
Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should
preclude a meaningful severe threat today.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030032
SWODY1
SPC AC 030030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing east across the
Great Basin early this evening. Large-scale ascent is spreading
downstream ahead of this feature into southern WY where isolated
thunderstorms are currently noted, especially over Carbon County,
just east of Rawlins. This activity appears to be aided by the 500mb
speed max and steep 0-6km lapse rates. 00z soundings from RIW, GJT,
and LKN all support this with 8-9 C/km values, but only ~0.35 inch
PW. Very weak buoyancy will continue to support lighting with weak
convection this evening.

Later tonight, surface warm front will advance north into the Ozarks
and 850mb warm advection will increase along the cool side of the
boundary. While 00z sounding from SGF exhibited a very strong cap,
and negligible instability, weak MUCAPE should gradually increase
later tonight and isolated elevated convection is expected to
develop across the MO/IL region.

..Darrow.. 03/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030527
SWODY1
SPC AC 030525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across a portion of the southern Plains into central Missouri.

...Southern Plains/Central MO...

Upper trough currently located along the NV/UT border is forecast to
eject into the central High Plains by 04/00z as a 500mb speed max
translates across northern NM into southern KS. This short wave will
progress into the central Plains by the end of the period. At the
surface, latest model guidance does not allow any meaningful
cyclogenesis to evolve, though a weak wave will translate along the
synoptic front from northwest OK into southwest MO during the
overnight hours.

Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across eastern NM into
the TX South Plains, and convective temperatures will likely be
breached west of the dryline over the higher terrain. However,
forecast soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability near the
dryline and any convection that evolves shortly after peak heating
will not only struggle, but it will be very high-based.

Current thinking is the primary instigator for convection during the
day1 period will be due to low-level warm advection atop the much
colder air mass north of the frontal zone. Forecast soundings
suggest modest MUCAPE may develop during the evening, or more likely
during the overnight hours as parcels near 2km AGL moisten above the
strong cap. Hail may develop with the strongest updrafts along a
corridor from the southern Plains into central MO. Isolated storms
may generate severe hail.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031250
SWODY1
SPC AC 031248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this morning is being
aided by low-level warm advection, and is expected to remain
sub-severe as it tracks eastward into a less unstable airmass. A
belt of 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will be maintained
today across parts of the southern/central Plains as a shortwave
trough ejects eastward over this region though the period. A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening as
low-level moisture streams northward across TX/OK into the Ozarks
and southern IL. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the
southern High Plains by late this afternoon, intersecting the
surface front in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to be
suppressed across the southern/central Plains through much of the
afternoon into early evening owing to the presence of a stout
low-level inversion. One exception may be near the front/dryline
intersection in southwest to central OK, where MLCIN should become
minimal by peak afternoon heating. Here, some guidance suggests a
low chance for a robust thunderstorm or two to develop and track
northeastward along/near the I-44 corridor while posing an isolated
hail threat. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly southward
to account for this possibility. Otherwise, gradually increasing
large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough and strengthening
low-level warm/moist advection should encourage the development of
elevated thunderstorms north of the front, mainly after 04/06Z.
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/03/2026

$$

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