AWUS01 KWNH 141736
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0019
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX into the Arklatex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141735Z - 142335Z

SUMMARY...Increasingly organized areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms with some localized cell-training concerns may
foster isolated to scattered areas of mainly urban flash flooding
going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a strong southern
stream shortwave trough ejecting east across the southern Plains
which is interacting with a moist and modestly unstable airmass
downstream across much of eastern TX.

Strong forcing aloft with DPVA and a gradually increasing
south-southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts ahead of a cold
front is facilitating a fairly expansive area of heavy showers and thunderstorms across central and northern TX and into the Red Red
Valley.

Recent radar trends has been showing a gradual increase in
convective organization with the activity near the DFW
metropolitan area, but with a generally progressive movement off
to the east and northeast as the shortwave dynamics interact with
the modestly favorable thermodynamic environment.

MUCAPE values are generally only on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg
with PWs upwards of 1.5 inches. However, some uptick in these
parameters can be expected over the next few hours as the
low-level jet reaches 40 to 50+ kts and PWs increase locally to
near 1.75 inches. This should help favor rainfall rates well into
the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with the stronger and more organized
cells which are being aided by much as 30 to 50 kts of effective
bulk shear.

Upscale convective growth is expected with at least the early
stages of a QLCS evolution likely going through the mid-afternoon
hours. The northern end of this convective mass will tend to focus
across northeast TX and into the Arklatex region where there will
be some localized cell-training concerns. A more progressive
convective line is expected farther south. The 12Z HREF guidance
suggests potential for some localized 3 to 4+ inch totals by later
this afternoon around the Arklatex.

The antecedent conditions are notably dry, but given the
increasing rates and cell-training concerns, some isolated to
scattered areas of mainly urban flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5OUdtSYdwrifFZh_oEhT4OdhjIrhD4SEk6mtJ91CiUWM6k2tdiTTWeHidzgbtHRVgux2= uP243a-rpWdt2NZVMiTqjwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34549428 34299311 33509314 32719423 32119559=20
32029649 32239723 32699745 33319705 34129585=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161303
FFGMPD
CAZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0020
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161300Z - 162100Z

SUMMARY...Strong dynamics/ascent will support strengthening
moisture flux across Southern California and the Transverse Ranges
this morning with pivoting cold front allowing for slightly
increased duration of moderate rainfall with hourly rates of
.5-.75"/hr with isolated potential to 1" locally. Totals of 1-2"
along the coast and 3-5" in the terrain may result in increased
runoff for possible flash flooding and or mudslides, especially
near recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W depicts a compact inner core of the deep upper
low/trof continuing to dig southward near 36N129.5W with a broad
diffluent region in the northeast quadrant where the exit of a
130kt 250mb jet speed max is providing solid diffluence/divergence
aloft for expansive upper-level cirrus shield with enhancing
perpendicular transverse banding. A subtle but important embedded
shortwave along the left exit of the jet shows a the developing
baroclinic leaf just northeast of the 35N125W benchmark. This
approaching wave coupled with the digging upper-level core is
supporting surface cyclogenesis along the cold front in the
vicinity of the SLO/Monterey county offshore waters, allowing for
backing and strengthening low level flow off the California Bight
through Santa Barbara county. VWP has seen an increase of
925-850mb winds over 35kts while veering from SSE to SSW to over
50kts at 700mb. This solid WAA profile has a bit of low level
lapse rates as well to support 500-650 J/kg of MUCAPE in proximity
to the cold front toward Point Conception.=20

The overall interplay of the upper-level low and shortwave will
allow for solid negative tilting of the upper-trof providing
strong 75-90 degrees of low level directional convergence along
the front while the confluence of 850 and 700mb moisture streams
will align for enhanced moisture flux convergence bringing the
slightly below average moisture values up toward something more
average or slightly above average around 1" in total PWAT, with
CIRA LPW animations denoting this trend is on track mostly in the
surface to 850mb layer.

So with the combination of increasing flux convergence and minor
instability, pre-frontal showered and possible weak/narrow shallow thunderstorms convective cores of .75" to possible 1"/hr rates may
occur over the next few hours as the front rounds the Cape and
gets that extra bump due to steepening orographic ascent as well,
though coastal showers will still be intense capable of a quick
.5"+ rainfall total too, making urban style flooding problematic.=20
The cold front will begin to press eastward, but in the short-term
as surface low deepens, the pivot/fulcrum of rotation may allow
for overrunning showers to persist across SBA into the TROWAL
across SLO and Monterey counties for the next few hours keeping
localized totals of 2-4" possible, with some continued higher
runoff and possible localized flooding risk.

Flash flooding risk will increase, as IVT values steadily increase
from the 400 range toward 600 kg/m/s, likely peaking as the cold
front and warm conveyor belt moisture stream flow orthogonally
intersects the Transverse Range of Ventura county with HREF
probably of 1"/hr near 30% between 18-20z, with 3-5" totals
expected through 00z. As such, flash flooding is considered
possible through the remainder of the morning and into the
afternoon as it reaches the Los Angles Metro proper after 18z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95dfXy5F6loNRbNt-tcBUWF77z-5_cLiTGcwDMX-mJQ-THiN2tqReSdy2vY1Q0yF6ruy= SwLb9Vo1twaJhU1n4a2w99Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...MTR...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36482138 36142073 35402021 34891962 34551875=20
34521780 34001755 33261777 33361890 33732006=20
34142075 34802105 35642182 36142185=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161930
FFGMPD
CAZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0021
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161930Z - 170130Z

SUMMARY...Progressive cold front with strong pre-frontal southerly
moisture flux will continue to shift eastward into the eastern
Transverse and Peninsular Ranges through this evening. Less
orthogonal ascent along terrain will reduce rainfall totals but
intense sub-hourly totals up to 1" that may cause urban flooding
and issues in and downstream of recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION...RADAR and GOES-W visible imagery show a narrow band
of intense showers/weak convective cores exiting Ventura county
into S Los Angeles county extending southward through the eastern
Channel Islands and starting to approach the southward turn of the
coast across Orange and San Diego counties. Very strong moisture
flux of 40-50kts of 925-850mb flow and steadily increasing
moisture per CIRA LPW nearing .75" in that layer. Veering post
frontal flow continues to be stark, with directional convergence
remains between 75-90 degrees. Given the strength over 30kts (up
to 50kts), it will continue to result in strong moisture flux for
the convective elements supporting hourly rates of .75-1". This
will continue what has been have observed moving through
southward facing terrain of the Transverse Range including the
Santa Monica Range, where totals of 2-3+" have been observed
resulting in localized flash flooding.

The strength of flow even below 850mb will continue to intersect
the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Ranges lower to mid slopes with
similar rates near .75-1"/hr though highest peaks will start
converting over to moderate/heavy snowfall. However, with
reducing southerly fetch, the Peninsular Ranges will see a quick
pick up, but with less orthogonal convergence/orographic ascent
will also see diminishing rates and therefore totals between
22-00z tonight. The lack of moisture flux off the California
Bight will also reduce the effective ascent through the TROWAL
further back west across the central Transverse Ranges where
lighter rain will continue to slowly add to the totals through 00z
as well. With the loss of orographic ascent/convergence and
deeper moisture availability, rates will reduce but increased
westerly flow and steepening lapse rates aloft before the main
cold front will allow for a few rounds of scattered upslope
showers with .1-.25"/hr rates/totals adding to the initial
mainline. Still, the overall risk for flash flooding will be
limited to urban and recent burn scars east and South of the LA
Basin.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_T2sFFPP0svERanV2yHB5IoA9mN_NCu8DjDbOL9-ENK0iN6I0_prGm9oGnmsdshK2Oz6= ETz3Y0zf0H5_pg1kbUamKeY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34701850 34251725 33811664 32841626 32471628=20
32451709 32971743 33471782 33621834 33831850=20
33981871 34221933 34601910=20

=3D =3D =3D
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