ACUS03 KWNS 141916
SWODY3
SPC AC 141915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas on
Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado.

...Discussion...
Early in the day on Monday, a strong mid-level trough and associated
100+ knot mid-level jet streak will approach the southern California
Coast. Ahead of the surface low, southerly flow will transport mid
50s dewpoints northward along the southern California coast. As
temperatures cool aloft over the relatively warm waters, some weak
instability is expected over the water and near-coastal regions of
southern California. Strong low-level flow (a 40+ knot low-level
jet) and some low-level directional shear may support isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as a line of storms moves
onshore Monday late morning to afternoon. With persistent offshore
flow, temperatures cool significantly inland. Therefore, any severe
weather threat should be confined to immediate coastal areas.

..Bentley.. 02/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150829
SWODY3
SPC AC 150828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears
low.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially
offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating
inland Tuesday. However, an associated intense offshore northerly
mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward
toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the
southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing
across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.

The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at
least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast
to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the
middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad
belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues
developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid
Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially
deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into
the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle
and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest. However, it
appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger
southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains
into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component.
Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf
Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a
warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the
central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Pacific Coast...
Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early
Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the
primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm
development, seems likely to become focused across northern and
central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level
cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper
jet. Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small
hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic
profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe
limits.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that
the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak
elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor
spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151925
SWODY3
SPC AC 151924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears
low.

...Discussion...
Continued cold air advection aloft over the relatively warm waters
of the eastern Pacific will continue to support thunderstorm
activity along the coastal areas on Tuesday from Oregon to southern
California. Thunderstorm activity may spread inland across central
California where some warming may lead to a pocket of greater
instability in the central Valley.

A large cyclone will emerge across the northern Plains on Tuesday.
Moisture will be somewhat limited given the cold front currently
scouring moisture across the Gulf. However, forecast guidance does
show sufficient moistening around 850mb to support some elevated
instability by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Given the
strong isentropic ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible across the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday evening.
However, the limited moisture will keep instability weak.

..Bentley.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160812
SWODY3
SPC AC 160811

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for
thunderstorm development generally low.

...Discussion...
An initial mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing
pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region
by the beginning of this period are forecast to undergo substantive
weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It is possible that a
residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled
with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to
support continuing convective development capable of producing
lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity
into the day Wednesday. However, this potential is not readily
evident in available NAM forecast soundings, and thunderstorm
probabilities are probably near the minimum 10 percent threshold for
a categorical thunder area.

Upstream, substantive spread is evident in the latest model output
concerning short wave developments within amplified mid/upper
troughing near the Pacific coast. It does appear that one emerging perturbation may support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the
Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday
through Wednesday night. However, modest inland moisture return off
a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer is generally forecast to
be focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast,
within a broad belt of south to southwesterly flow around low-level
ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of
the western Atlantic.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161931
SWODY3
SPC AC 161930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to persist over the
western CONUS on Wednesday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move
through the large-scale trough through the period. Low-topped
convection will be possible across southern CA early in the period,
with multiple rounds of weak convection possible farther north from
the Pacific Northwest to central CA coast. Farther east, a
negative-tilt shortwave trough will move across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, as multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima
eject eastward toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast.

...MI into the Lower Great Lakes region...
Generally weak elevated convection may spread from lower MI into
parts of the Lower Great Lakes through the day, in association with
an ejecting midlevel vorticity maximum. Some guidance (such as the
ECMWF/GFS) depicts modest surface-based destabilization in the wake
of this elevated convection, within a favorably sheared environment.
However, this occurs within an otherwise drying environment (with PW
falling near/below 0.5 inches), with generally limited low-level
ascent. The signal for robust deeper convection is currently very
limited, but trends will continue to be monitored regarding the
potential for any vigorous surface-based development.

...Northern Mid-South region into the Ohio Valley...
In response to a mid/upper-level shortwave ejecting from the western
trough, a surface cyclone is forecast to deepen across the central
High Plains during the day, before moving eastward across KS
Wednesday night. Guidance varies regarding the magnitude of
low-level moisture return within the warm-sector of this cyclone
prior to the end of the period. However, MUCAPE may become
sufficient for development of elevated thunderstorms late in the
period from parts of northern AR/southern MO into much of KY/TN and
adjacent Ohio Valley. Strong deep-layer flow would conditionally
support some storm organization, but development of sufficient
elevated buoyancy for an organized-severe threat remains uncertain.

..Dean.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170832
SWODY3
SPC AC 170831

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early
evening.

...Discussion...
Considerable spread persists within latest model output concerning
short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North
America through this period. In general, though, guidance indicates
that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift
inland of the Pacific coast Thursday through Thursday night, while
being maintained downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley, and slowly developing toward the lower Great
Lakes and Appalachians vicinity. The center of a subtropical high
is likely to shift from the Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean,
with its northern periphery maintaining an influence across parts of
the Southeast.

One or two short wave perturbations emerging from the Intermountain
West may be in the process of progressing into and across the
central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity at the
outset of the period. The lower amplitude lead perturbation may
continue into and across the Ohio Valley during the day, as the
stronger upstream perturbation pivots across the mid to lower
Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes region. This appears a bit
to the north, and at somewhat lower amplitudes, than what prior runs
of at least some model output has been indicating. However, this is
still likely to be accompanied by a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone,
which may undergo one or two periods of additional deepening while
migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great
Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.

...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...
Latest model output continues to indicate better low-level moisture
return (but still marginal for severe convective development) to
portions of the warm sector of the developing cyclone as it migrates
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley Thursday
afternoon. It appears that this may include a corridor of mid 50s
to near 60F surface dew points advecting northeast and east of the
confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. However, it now
appears that much of this moistening may occur beneath relatively
warm mid/upper levels, associated with subsidence to the south of
the upper jet axis.

This is not reflected in the latest RRFS forecast soundings, which
indicate rather potent thermodynamic profiles evolving by Thursday
afternoon across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity, in terms of both
conditional and convective instability. A general consensus of
other model output suggests the development of much more modest
CAPE. This includes NAM forecast soundings, which depict CAPE at or
below 500 J/kg where the low-level moistening occurs, mostly due to
low equilibrium levels below the 500 mb level. It remains unclear
if this environment will become supportive of convection capable of
producing lightning.

Even so, NAM forecast soundings still depict boundary-layer based
CAPE supportive of low-topped convection which could acquire
supercellular structure in the presence of strong cloud bearing
shear. Aided by the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs beneath 30-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, and a relatively
moist boundary-layer with steep lapse rates, a few tornadoes appear
possible, in addition to small to marginally severe hail. The
evolution of a small organizing cluster may still not be out of the
question, which probably would be accompanied by better potential
for damaging surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171928
SWODY3
SPC AC 171927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early
evening.

...Synopsis...
Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift
north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio
Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach
Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature
will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The
second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the
evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by
Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts
northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At
least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead
of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern
Plains.

...Lower/middle Ohio Valley...
Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is
expected to be the focus for convective development during the
afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this
feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe
threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very
modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough
on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for
more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday
will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far
enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as
the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F
dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said, temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not
be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain
somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the
environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to
the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be
increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes,
damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the afternoon/evening.

..Wendt.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180830
SWODY3
SPC AC 180829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear
less than 5 percent across the U.S.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper flow may undergo renewed
amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific,
including a significant short wave trough digging south-southeast of
the Gulf of Alaska (roughly along 140W longitude), to the east of
building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians.
Farther east, mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the
Pacific coast, with remnant larger-scale downstream troughing
developing eastward across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley.

An initially vigorous short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged
from this troughing, may maintain considerable strength into the day
Friday while progressing east-northeastward toward the lower Great
Lakes region. However, it is still generally forecast to become
sheared and weaken to the south of a mid-level high centered near
southern Hudson/James Bays. As it does, the associated occluding
cyclone is forecast to substantively weaken. It continues to appear
that secondary surface cyclogenesis across and east-northeast of the
Mid Atlantic region will remain subdued, and the primary trailing
surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall near the southern
periphery of the stronger westerlies, across parts of the Carolinas
into the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday.

Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the
Gulf is probable along and south of this front. However, warm
layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper
subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend
inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development. As mid/upper
forcing for ascent, associated with short waves within the strong
flow emerging from the Southwest, remains mostly to the cool side of
the front, potential for stronger thunderstorm development seems
likely to become focused along or just to the cool side of the
frontal zone.

While deep-layer shear near the front is likely to be strong and
potentially supportive of organized thunderstorm development, the
extent to which thermodynamic profiles become conducive to a risk
for severe weather remains unclear. It appears that
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be generally weak, and most
unstable CAPE is forecast anywhere from modest to weak. At the
present time the risk for severe thunderstorms Friday through Friday
night appears mostly conditional, and too conditional support a
forecast of 5 percent or greater severe probabilities. However,
this could still change in later outlook updates for this period,
particularly across parts of the Gulf Coast states.

..Kerr.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181932
SWODY3
SPC AC 181931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear
less than 5 percent across the U.S.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will remain strong and largely zonal over the
southern US Day 3/Friday. A pronounced shortwave trough will move
eastward toward the Atlantic Coast as subtropical ridging slowly
builds over the Gulf Coast. A second low-amplitude trough over the
Southwest will eject eastward and move into the Southeast early
Saturday. A deep surface low associated with the first trough will
occlude over the Great Lakes as its associated cold front continues
to surge eastward across the upper OH valley. Trailing portions of
the front will begin to stall across the Southeast and lower MS
Valley Friday evening.

...Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast States...
To the south of the strong southwesterly flow aloft, gradual
moistening of the low-level air mass is likely Friday and Friday
night along and south of the stalled front. While deep-layer ascent
will be limited along the anticyclonic curved portion of the strong
subtropical jet through much of the day, the approach of the
secondary upper trough may support increased ascent late.

As mid/upper forcing for ascent moves eastward, it is expected to
remain mostly to the cool side of the front. Some potential for
stronger thunderstorm development seems likely to become focused
along or just to the cool side of the frontal zone late Friday night
into early Saturday. Low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy appear
generally weak despite strong flow aloft. Model guidance also varies significantly on destabilization and moistening near the front.
This, along with the late arrival of the stronger forcing suggests
that while some stronger elevated storms are possible near the
front, the risk is too conditional to introduce probabilities.

...Upper OH Valley...
As the surface low occludes, a strong cold front associated with the
advancing upper trough will surge through portions of eastern OH and
PA. A shallow line of weak convection is possible along the front
owing to weak low-level moisture advection and strong ascent tied to
the front. Largely devoid of meaningful buoyancy, little to no
lightning is expected. Whoever, the presence of 100+ kt of mid-level
flow could allow mixing of a few stronger wind gusts to the surface
through the morning Friday. Minimal buoyancy and the lack of more
robust moisture will preclude any severe probabilities.

..Lyons.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190831
SWODY3
SPC AC 190830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

...Discussion...
Latest model output continues to indicate the evolution of a broad
mid-level cyclonic circulation across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific by early Saturday, with a number of vigorous short wave
perturbations pivoting around its center, generally settling near
44N/140W. At least a couple of these may already be providing
support for surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone which may
occlude while migrating around its northeastern through northern
periphery during the day Saturday. It appears that a trailing
cyclone may undergo substantive strengthening before occluding,
while migrating around the eastern through northeastern periphery of
the mid-level low Saturday through Saturday night.

Downstream, as amplification of large-scale mid-level ridging
proceeds Saturday across the Rockies, digging short wave
perturbations to its east are forecast to contribute to the
amplification of larger-scale troughing east of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. This may be accompanied by further development
of a frontal wave offshore of the Carolina coast by 12Z Sunday,
while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley.

...Northern Pacific coast...
The offshore cyclogenesis may be accompanied by intensifying
southerly lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields near northern Pacific
coastal areas by late Saturday night, as a frontal precipitation
band approaches or progresses a bit inland of coastal areas.
However, with the mid-level cold core supportive of thermodynamic
profiles conducive to thunderstorm activity likely to remain well
offshore through this period, the potential for severe storms
appears negligible.

...Southeast...
Aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm
advection, vigorous organizing convection may be ongoing at 12Z
Saturday, mainly near or to the cool side of the initially
quasi-stationary frontal zone across parts of central Mississippi,
Alabama and Georgia. As this forcing develops eastward, and daytime
heating contributes to modest boundary-layer destabilization to the south/southeast of the front, there appears potential for convection
to develop and intensify to the warm side of the front, in the
presence of strong and sheared westerly mean flow, including 30-60+
kt in the 850-500 mb layer. This may be accompanied by further
organization and increasing potential for strong to severe surface
gusts while spreading toward the Carolina/Georgia coast and northern
Florida through early Saturday evening. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlook updates
for this period.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191927
SWODY3
SPC AC 191926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

...Gulf Coast and Carolinas...
A stalled frontal zone across parts of the Southeast will begin to
move southeastward as an initial shortwave trough over the lower MS
Valley and Southeast amplifies. Aided by additional troughing
upstream over the central and northern Plains, flow aloft will
intensify and turn northwesterly helping to deepen a surface cyclone
along the frontal zone over GA and SC. The increased mid-level
ascent and strengthening frontal forcing will move eastward into
parts of the Gulf Coast and southern Carolinas Saturday afternoon.
With dewpoints in the mid 60s F, some destabilization is expected
with daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rate suggest buoyancy
will be relatively modest, but sufficient for scattered storm
development across central AL/GA and the southern Carolinas.

Ongoing elevated storms early Saturday morning should persist and
move southeastward with additional development expected ahead of the
front through the afternoon. Strong mostly unidirectional westerly
flow will likely support some organization into bands or clusters.
Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though hail and
a brief tornado are possible given the moist surface conditions and
supercell shear profiles. Convection should gradually weaken as the
front approaches the coast later Saturday evening and large-scale
ascent lifts away to the northeast.

..Lyons.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200749
SWODY3
SPC AC 200747

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes
will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

... Discussion ...

The mid-level pattern will undergo amplification on Sunday as a
strong mid-level low/trough dives southeast from the mid-Mississippi
Valley to off the North Carolina coast and takes on a neutral to
negative tilt. A surface low off the Carolina coast will deepen
rapidly in response to the intensifying large-scale ascent.
Northerly winds on the west side of the deepening surface low will
drive a surface cold front south through the Florida Peninsula,
potentially clearing south Florida by Monday morning. Modest
instability (~500 J/kg) across the central peninsula may support
isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, although warm mid-level
temperatures should temper the overall thunderstorm
potential/coverage.

Elsewhere, an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible
across the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the surface low rapidly
deepens and an intensifying warm conveyor belt results in elevated
instability developing to the west/northwest of the surface low.

Additionally, a few lightning strikes may occur along and off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest as the next upper-trough approaches.
However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need
for delineation.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201927
SWODY3
SPC AC 201926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes
will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

...Discussion...
Mid-level flow will amplify Sunday as a trough deepens over the far Southeastern US states and Atlantic Coast. An associated surface low
will move off the NC coast and deepen rapidly. This will drive a
cold front southward across the FL Peninsula early Sunday morning.
Modest moisture advection ahead of the front could support a few
thunderstorms through midday Sunday. Additional storms are possible
along the sea breeze in south FL. However, drying/warming mid-levels
and large-scale subsidence south of the deepening trough should
temper the overall convective intensity such that no severe weather
is expected.

Elsewhere, an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible
across the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the surface low rapidly
deepens and an intensifying warm conveyor belt results in elevated
instability developing to the west/northwest of the surface low.

Additionally, very isolated lightning is possible off the Pacific
Coast of WA and northern OR. Strong ascent and some moisture
advection increase with the next upper-trough. However, coverage
should remain sparse enough to preclude the need for delineation.

..Lyons.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210801
SWODY3
SPC AC 210800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.

... Discussion ...

As the East Coast cyclone departs on Monday, a cool, dry airmass
will settle over much of the country, suppressing thunderstorm
activity.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211919
SWODY3
SPC AC 211918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify rapidly over the Eastern US,
helping deepen a significant surface cyclone off the New England
Coast. At the same time, ridging will build over the western and
central US. As the mid-level pattern amplifies, a strong cold front
associated with the East Coast low will sweep offshore scouring
low-level moisture from much of the continent. In its wake, a cool
and dry air mass will settle over much of the country, suppressing
thunderstorm activity.

..Lyons.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220758
SWODY3
SPC AC 220757

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States.

... Discussion ...

The upper-air pattern will deamplify somewhat on Tuesday as a
mid-level trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest helps break
down the western ridge. The result should be broad northwest flow
across much of the US. At the surface, in response to this northwest
flow, troughing will develop in the lee of nearly the entirety of
the US Rocky Mountains. Southerly winds to the east of this trough
will begin drawing moisture northward into the Southern Plains.

Given the limited moisture across the central and eastern US, and
the saturated, instability deprived forecast soundings associated
with the expected moist, onshore/upslope flow across California,
thunderstorms are currently not anticipated on Tuesday.

..Marsh.. 02/22/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221843
SWODY3
SPC AC 221842

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley on Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a deepening
surface low and trailing cold front. While this system may be
accompanied by shallow/weak convection, very meager
moisture/instability should limit thunderstorm potential.

Upstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of
the Pacific Northwest, helping to dampen an upper ridge that will
initially be in place over the region. Rain and gusty winds will
accompany this system across coastal OR and northern CA, but
thunderstorm potential appears low due to negligible instability.

..Dean.. 02/22/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230753
SWODY3
SPC AC 230752

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the
Tennessee Valley.

... Discussion ...

A fast moving, positively tilted shortwave trough embedded in the
broad northwest flow across the US will move from the Interior
Pacific Northwest to Iowa/Missouri during the forecast period. At
the surface, southerly winds to the east of a broad lee trough will
begin drawing warm air and Gulf moisture northward through the day
on Wednesday, ultimately aiding the development of a
northwest-to-southeast oriented warm front stretching from Nebraska
to Alabama/Georgia.

In response to the approaching shortwave trough, southwesterly
low-level winds will strengthen across Texas into the Ohio Valley
overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation will likely develop
in response to this increasing moist isentropic ascent. Forecast
soundings from the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley indicate
sufficient moistening just above the boundary layer to support up to
500 J/kg of elevated instability and the potential for a few
thunderstorms. As of now, the weak instability should limit any
severe threat with these elevated storms.

..Marsh.. 02/23/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231906
SWODY3
SPC AC 231905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly from the Pacific
Northwest in the central Plains/Mid MO Valley on Wednesday, moving
within the broadly cyclonic upper flow expected to be in place
across the CONUS. Deepening surface lee troughing is anticipated
ahead of this wave, with cyclogenesis eventually yielding a low that
progresses across the TX Panhandle during the evening and along the
Red River overnight.

A moistening warm sector will precede this surface low and its
parent shortwave, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching across much of
eastern OK and southern/central AR by early Thursday morning. 60s
dewpoints will likely remain confined farther south along the TX
Coast, with warm temperatures aloft precluding deep convection
throughout the warm sector. However, strengthening low to mid-level
flow is anticipated throughout the warm sector, resulting in
moderate to strong warm-air advection across the frontal zone
extending northeastward from the Red River surface low. Showers and
a few thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South and TN Valley
as limited but sufficient buoyancy develops amid the moistening low
to mid-levels and cool temperatures aloft. A few thunderstorms are
also possible immediately ahead of a weak triple point low farther
west in the vicinity of the confluence of the MS and OH rivers.

..Mosier.. 02/23/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240831
SWODY3
SPC AC 240830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a
couple of strong wind gusts.

... Discussion ...

The upper-air pattern across the United States will remain best
characterized by broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the
forecast period. Within this flow, the primary focus will be on a
shortwave trough forecast to drop southward from the mid-Missouri
Valley into the Southeast. Recent guidance suggests trend toward a
weaker, more dampened trough as it dives south of the main belt of
mid-level flow.

In response to this weaker, more detached forcing, a surface low is
forecast to develop much farther south than originally anticipated,
likely across the lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf Coast
states. Recent model trends indicate this cyclone will not develop
as deeply, resulting in a notably weaker low-level wind field across
the warm sector. Consequently, the associated surface cold front
appears likely to merely sag southward rather than being dynamically
driven, as the lack of robust cyclogenesis and a weaker trough limit
frontal acceleration.

Despite weaker forcing and diminished convergence along the sagging
front, some guidance suggests that buoyancy profiles may be slightly
improved compared to previous outlooks, though they remain meager
overall. Moisture return should yield surface dewpoints in the 50Fs
to low 60Fs, which may support a narrow, forced convective band.
Kinematically, forecast soundings indicate that low-level curvature
is less than previously forecast, limiting the localized tornado
potential, but hodographs remain quite long due to the persistence
of stronger flow aloft. This maintains sufficient deep-layer shear
for organized linear structures capable of isolated damaging wind
gusts. However, given the weakening trends in forcing and low-level
kinematics, confidence remains too low to introduce unconditional 5%
severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 02/24/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241918
SWODY3
SPC AC 241918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a
couple of strong wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
A weak frontal boundary will drift southward across the TN Valley
into the Southeast on Thursday as a low-amplitude, positively tilted
mid-level trough overspreads the MS Valley. Cooler temperatures
aloft will gradually overspread the warm sector through the day over
the Southeast, characterized by modest low-level moisture. Tall,
thin buoyancy profiles in forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE
should remain at or below 500 J/kg in most places. Low-level WAA
atop the southward sagging surface frontal boundary should serve as
the impetus for isolated instances of convective initiation by
Thursday evening. Strong westerly flow aloft will yield straight,
elongated hodographs, so a couple of strong wind gusts cannot be
ruled out with the more organized storms. However, modest buoyancy
and forcing for ascent suggest that any severe threat that
materializes, while technically non-zero, will be too sparse for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 02/24/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250826
SWODY3
SPC AC 250825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Southeast on Friday.
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

... Discussion ...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start
of the forecast period across portions of the Southeast along and
south of a slow moving surface front. These showers and
thunderstorms will likely be aided by a modest low-level
jet/warm-air advection regime. These thunderstorms will persist into
early Friday afternoon within a moist, uncapped environment and
broad troughing aloft. Meager instability (on the order of less than
500 J/kg), decreasing convergence along the surface front, and
generally weakening kinematic field should preclude any organized
severe potential.

..Marsh.. 02/25/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251921
SWODY3
SPC AC 251920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains toward the
northern Gulf of America on Friday, with cooling aloft overspreading
much of the Southeast. At the surface, a prominent ridge will extend
from the Mid Atlantic across the TN and into the lower MS Valley,
with a cold front roughly from SC into LA.

Near this front, rain and a few thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing from southern LA/MS/AL/GA into northern FL Friday morning.
While clouds and precipitation may hamper heating, at least a few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE appears likely given lower 60s F dewpoints and a
plume of low-level theta-e extending out of the northern Gulf and
across the FL Panhandle/southern AL/southern GA.

Given questionable destabilization and relatively weak boundary
layer winds, potential for isolated strong/severe storms are not
currently depicted.

..Jewell.. 02/25/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260831
SWODY3
SPC AC 260830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and
across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains
early Sunday morning.

... Discussion ...

A low-amplitude ridge across the Great Basin/Southwest and broad
troughing across the eastern US will result in a continuation of the
persistent northwest flow regime across the central US. To the west,
moist southwesterly flow across northern California and southern
Oregon will slowly shift south as a Pacific low approaches the
coast.

At the surface, a weak front will sag south across the Florida
peninsula, while a return to southerly winds across the southern
Plains will initiate low-level moisture return into Oklahoma.
Coincident, an arctic front will push south through the central
Plains into the southern Plains as an arctic high builds into the
upper Midwest.

... Florida Peninsula ...

A remnant frontal boundary will linger across the central Florida
peninsula, where conditions will remain favorable for at least
isolated thunderstorms. To the south of the front, surface
temperatures should warm into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs with
surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid-60Fs. This should yield MUCAPE
between 1000-1500 J/kg.

While forecast hodographs are expected to lengthen as compared to
the prior day, supporting some storm organization, several limiting
factors exist. Weak mid-level lapse rates and poor low-level
convergence cast doubt on the overall coverage of thunderstorm
development. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest subsidence
across portions of the peninsula during peak heating, which would
further limit convective development.

... Northern California and Southern Oregon ...

Moist southwesterly advection will increase/persist ahead of an
approaching Pacific trough. Although instability is rather limited,
it does appear to be non-zero. The combination of a moistening
troposphere, increased ascent with the approaching trough, and
non-zero instability may support a couple of thunderstorms.

... Southern Plains ...

Moist warm-air advection is anticipated to become established
Saturday night as a southerly low-level jet develops across the
Plains. Increasing moisture return will drive surface dewpoints
perhaps as high as the upper-50Fs or even low-60Fs. As the arctic
front slows and encounters this moistening airmass, elevated
thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm-air advection
regime.

Kinematic profiles will feature very long hodographs and would
support updraft organization with potential for at least marginally
severe hail. However, this threat is highly conditioned on the
quality and magnitude of the moisture return. At this time will
defer the introduction of hail probabilities to subsequent outlooks.
However, if upper-50F dewpoints are realized, enough elevated
instability may develop to support the introduction of hail
probabilities at a later time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261928
SWODY3
SPC AC 261926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and
across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

...Synopsis...
A persistent northwest flow regime will continue across the CONUS
well into the weekend with continued upper ridging over the
Southwest/West Coast and the maintenance of a long-wave trough over
the East. Within this flow regime, several embedded disturbances
will support areas of convection, namely over the Florida Peninsula
and across northern California and adjacent portions of OR and NV.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the
southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau within a low-level warm
advection regime.

...FL Peninsula...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the day
along the FL Peninsula as ascent associated with a de-amplifying
upper wave persists over a buoyant and weakly capped environment.
Although some hodograph elongation is noted in recent forecast
soundings, confidence in updraft intensity is limited due to modest
mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level convergence/forcing for
ascent. Any appreciable severe threat would most likely manifest
along the FL east coast where sea-breeze convergence may focus
thunderstorm development, but confidence in this potential is too
limited at this time for risk probabilities.

...Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau...
Zonal flow across the central Rockies will promote steady lee
troughing along the High Plains through late Saturday night. In
response, warm/moist air advection is expected to increase through
the lowest few kilometers as a plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints
spreads north into OK within a southerly flow regime. Isentropic
ascent within a weak deformation zone at around 850 mb will likely
be the impetus for thunderstorm development within the destabilizing
air mass by Saturday evening. The quality of moisture
return/destabilization remains uncertain due to notable spread in
guidance, which lends low confidence in overall storm coverage and
intensity at this time. However, thunder probabilities were maintained/introduced where agreement between long-range ensembles
and extended-range CAMs appears greatest.

...Northern CA into OR and NV...
A shortwave trough is forecast to crest the axis of the persistent
upper ridge in place along the CA coast. Cold mid-level temperatures
under the upper low coupled with an influx of Pacific moisture
through a deep layer should support convective elements within
broader precipitation bands. Forecast soundings suggest buoyancy
profiles will remain too limited to support intense convection,
which should preclude a severe threat.

..Moore.. 02/26/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270754
SWODY3
SPC AC 270753

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern
California.

...DISCUSSION...
A subtle mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Florida Peninsula on Sunday, as a diffuse cold front stalls in
south-central Florida. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front
in the afternoon. Further west into the southern and central Plains, thunderstorms will be possible as surface temperatures warm during
the day near and to the north of a front from parts of Oklahoma
northward into Kansas and southwest Missouri. Finally, isolated
diurnal storms will also be possible on Sunday in parts of northern
California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S.
Sunday and Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271919
SWODY3
SPC AC 271918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern
California.

...Synopsis...
The mean northwesterly flow regime currently over the CONUS will
gradually begin to shift east through the late weekend and into
early next week as a somewhat more potent upper-level wave
approaches the West Coast. Cooling temperatures aloft associated
with the approaching upper wave will support adequate buoyancy for
isolated thunderstorms across CA and into OR, NV, and parts of
southwest ID late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Further
east, strengthening mid-level flow across the central Rockies will
promote weak lee cyclogenesis in proximity to a residual baroclinic
zone across the southern Plains. An uptick in low-level winds will
augment isentropic upglide over the frontal zone across OK into
eastern KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR. Strong mid-level winds
atop strong veering in the lowest few kilometers will conditionally
support organized convection; however, most guidance suggests
buoyancy profiles will remain fairly limited (less than 500 J/kg
MUCAPE per GEFS/ECENS output) due to meager moisture quality. This
limits confidence in any severe threat at this time. Isolated
thunderstorms may linger across southern FL where an unstable, but
weakly capped, environment should be in place as a weak frontal
boundary drifts south.

..Moore.. 02/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280810
SWODY3
SPC AC 280809

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of the central
U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies.

...Western Oklahoma/Eastern Texas Panhandle/Far Southern Kansas...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will move eastward across
southern California on Monday. A fetch of mid-level
west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest
into the south-central U.S. At the surface, moisture advection
within south to southeasterly flow will continue across the southern
and central Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an
axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop across
west-central and northwest Texas. This instability should spread
northward across the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma
during the early to mid evening. Although weak low-level convergence
should be in place near the instability axis, forecast soundings
suggest that a strong capping inversion will inhibit convective
development Monday evening. Although there may be a low-end
conditional threat, will hold off an introducing a threat area due
the strong capping inversion that is forecast. Further northeast,
elevated storms are expected to develop after midnight from
north-central Kansas into western Missouri, along the northern edge
of a pronounced 40 to 50 knot low-level jet.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281907
SWODY3
SPC AC 281906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the
central Rockies.

...Synopsis...
A broad fetch of isentropic ascent will likely become established
across the central U.S. Monday through Monday night as
south/southwesterly 925-850 mb winds gradually increase in response
to the approach of an upper wave from the West. While buoyancy
profiles will likely be fairly modest due to poor mid-level lapse
rates, adequate low-level moistening should take place to support
isolated elevated thunderstorms from the southern Plains northward
into the mid-MS River Valley. Although surface-based buoyancy should
be maximized across western TX in proximity to a meandering dry
line/lee trough and south of a weak front, very warm temperatures at
850 mb/strong capping will subdue convective potential. Across the Intermountain West, cold temperatures aloft associated with the
upper wave should support isolated lightning flashes.

..Moore.. 02/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010821
SWODY3
SPC AC 010820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday
into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also
develop in south Florida.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks
on Tuesday, as flow becomes southwesterly over the south-central
U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move through the Four
Corners region. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s F will advect northward across the
southern Plains and Arklatex. A cold front will move southeastward
into the central Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of
instability is forecast to develop in the afternoon from northwest
Texas into southeast Kansas and the northern Ozarks. The airmass is
expected to be capped across much of Texas and Oklahoma, although an
elevated storm or two will be possible Tuesday night. The greatest
chance for storms will be from eastern Kansas into the northern
Ozarks, where convective development will be aided by lift
associated with the exit region of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet.
Considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning
instability, suggesting that any severe threat will be highly
conditional. If moisture return ends up being greater than is
currently forecast, a marginal severe threat may need to be added in
later outlooks.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011925
SWODY3
SPC AC 011924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for a
few severe thunderstorms, are anticipated Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in
south Florida.

...Synopsis...
The upper wave currently off the northern CA coast will begin
ejecting into the Plains through the day Tuesday, reaching the
mid-Missouri River Valley by early Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a stalled frontal boundary draped across OK will advance
northward through the day in response to lee
cyclogenesis/strengthening southerly flow. Northward moisture return
into OK and southern KS will occur through the day, which should
help increase buoyancy along and south of the frontal zone. A
southward surge of the front is expected after 00z across KS and
into northwest OK as the surface low develops northeastward in
tandem with broad-scale ascent associated with the upper trough.
Most 00z and 12z ensemble solutions depict moderate (40-60%) chances
for precipitation across northern OK into southern and eastern KS
between 00-06 UTC as the front pushes southeast. Forecast soundings
from this region depict sufficient MUCAPE for deep convection, and
strong flow aloft should provide adequate wind shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant large hail, and possibly wind,
threat. Confidence in the degree of destabilization remains somewhat
low with NAM-based solutions depicting considerable capping and
drier/cooler conditions overall. However, the ensemble QPF signal
along the front coupled with reasonable potential for adequate
buoyancy/shear for organized storms and convective signals in
extended-range CAMs warrants at least low severe probabilities.

..Moore.. 03/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020825
SWODY3
SPC AC 020824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western
Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern
Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move into the southern and
central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into the southern Plains and western Ozarks.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day across this moist airmass,
pockets of moderate instability appear likely to develop from
north-central and northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. As low-level convergence increases near the front
in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible to the south and east
of the front over the warm sector. Forecast soundings at 21Z from
northeast Texas into western Arkansas have MLCAPE peaking in the
1200 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. In
addition, 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7.5 to
8 C/km range. This environment will support severe thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and
severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat. The severe threat
will be maximized in areas with supercell development. The severe
threat will likely persist into the late evening as a low-level jet strengthens.

...Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the mid
Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At
the surface, a low will move eastward from northern Missouri into
north-central Illinois during the day. A warm front will advance
northward across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. To the south of the
warm front, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the
development of weak instability. Along the instability axis, a 30 to
40 knot low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Ohio
Valley in the afternoon and evening. Lift associated with the
low-level jet will support the formation of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km should be favorable for a marginal severe
threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021926
SWODY3
SPC AC 021925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO
WESTERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from
mid-afternoon to evening Wednesday, centered on parts of north Texas
to western Arkansas. Large hail should be the primary hazard.

...Synopsis...
A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will gradually move from the
central Great Plains to the Mid/Lower MO Valley, while a much more
amplified trough digs across the West. Surface cyclone reflection
will be nebulous in association with the lead wave, along a front
that should be quasi-stationary on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The
trailing portion of this front will advance north as a warm front in
west TX, downstream of the amplified wave in the West.

...Central TX to western AR...
Initially steep mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with further boundary-layer moistening in the warm sector ahead of the front
should yield a broad plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon across much of central/eastern TX into eastern OK.
Weak mid-level height falls trailing from the NE/KS shortwave trough
and adequate convergence along the quasi-stationary should support
increasing convective development towards late afternoon. Deep-layer
shear with southern extent in TX will be weak owing to the
compactness of the jetlet attendant to the aforementioned trough.
Effective bulk shear should commonly hold around 15-25 kts. Shear
values will increase north of the Red River, but remain modest
relative to early spring climo. Transient supercell structures that
evolve into mainly multicell clusters are the anticipated modes. At
least isolated severe hail is anticipated, primarily in the
mid-afternoon to early evening, before organized cellular structures
diminish. The paucity of cyclogenesis/stronger deep-layer shear and
modest large-scale ascent may help marginalize the overall severe
threat.

...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley...
Multiple rounds of convective potential are expected through the
period. Elevated storms should be ongoing on Wednesday morning and
will help define the northern extent of any surface-based
destabilization into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. The degree of
warm-sector insolation is questionable with potential for repeated
convective regeneration ahead of the KS/NE shortwave trough.
Conditionally, moderately favorable deep-layer shear could support a
few supercells and/or linear clusters near the quasi-stationary
front. As such, a swath of low severe probabilities remains
warranted, mainly from mid-afternoon into the evening Wednesday.

..Grams.. 03/02/2026

$$

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