ACUS11 KWNS 262325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262324=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and east-central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262324Z - 270100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk will exist across portions of
central and east-central Arkansas over the next 1-2 hours, with
severe hail the primary hazard.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell currently entering White County
has become better established along the cool side of a surface
baroclinic boundary over the past 30-60 minutes with additional
development recently noted farther south along this boundary. A
mid-level impulse embedded within broader northwesterly flow is
supporting modest mid-level ascent, which has aided in the
development of 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE rooted around 850 mb atop a
cooler, drier low-level air mass. Effective bulk shear of 50-60 kts
coupled with long, straight hodographs and modestly steep mid-level
lapse rates (around 7 C/km) will support at least some potential for
isolated severe hail. Some uncertainty remains regarding the
southeastward extent of this risk over the next 1-2 hours, however,
as warming mid-level temperatures around 700 mb and increasing
convective inhibition are likely to yield a gradual weakening trend
with time. Given this uncertainty, WW issuance appears unlikely at
this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Chalmers/Lyons/Hart.. 02/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_hF__fcXUE4k8msfEq8xQrC20nNP7xus90l3JYtsyWGNgHbPwM3hkPFOtpz2xbw7p4D9TymxO= 02-sfVNkS3fMiQ3NAY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 34899236 35219215 35319192 35189158 34979120 34799096
34509084 34459078 34179097 34129124 34249175 34409216
34759234 34899236=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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