ACUS11 KWNS 012131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012131=20
OKZ000-012330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012131Z - 012330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk will increase through late
afternoon/evening. A couple of storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds across central/south-central Oklahoma in the 5 PM - 10
PM time period.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus field has been expanding across the central
OK vicinity the past couple of hours. Warm, moist advection in the
low and midlevels has allowed surface dewpoints to increase into the
57-60 F range between the I-44 and I-35 corridors south of the OKC
Metro, with more modest boundary layer moisture noted with northeast
extent. Substantial midlevel moistening between the 850-700 mb layer
was noted between 1730z-1830z in midday ACARS/TAMDAR data from OKC. Furthermore, a 21z sounding from OUN showed only weak capping with
MUCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg amid midlevel lapse rates near 7.5
C/km.

As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the region, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the 22-00z
time frame near a surface low and cold front oriented from the OKC
area southwestward along the I-44 corridor. The strongest storms may
produce large hail in the 1.5-2.0 inch range, and gusty winds of
45-60 mph. It remains uncertain how many storms may develop, and the
corridor for severe-caliber hail may remain fairly narrow in space
and time. Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch
issuance in the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Smith.. 03/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7jwS5DGPwhh8oqJq8hmu2NQS2x6nOdhzsbvGZEADbYh8vvKdN40Oi-7WznN8cblVWumIJPx7b= 4abE2nacSOnDFXwb0c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35089605 34829632 34459680 34299723 34179786 34219840
34269869 34439882 34599881 34729874 34979849 35279813
35509773 35629736 35649686 35599659 35489625 35309604
35089605=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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