ACUS11 KWNS 182210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182210=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa
and extreme southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182210Z - 182345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail may occur with some of
the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to remain
isolated.

DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercell structures have been
gradually intensifying within a WAA regime north of the warm front.
21Z mesoanalysis depicts 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kts of
effective bulk shear, suggesting that storms may achieve some degree
of organization, with severe hail possible with the stronger, more
persistent updrafts. However, storms are tracking into an
environment characterized by decreasing buoyancy and shear, putting
total severe coverage in question. As such, a WW issuance is not
currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8Vfy5WUNWAmk-wCyTNubCz6kUaTOCRHC37_3Bjqv4OGvOsShHySh1OBE2t0JIC9eukPwfROk= iuvjZohWKuaekL6rT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 44049575 44039529 43519516 42159568 41279617 40699658
40419706 40439741 40699765 41379731 42779689 43479657
43859626 44049575=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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