ACUS11 KWNS 190701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190701=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-190900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...and
southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...

Valid 190701Z - 190900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and large hail will remain possible
across portions of Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest
Missouri this morning.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this morning across portions of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #229. The environment along and ahead of
these storms remains very unstable with MUCAPE values between
2000-3000 J/kg. However, despite a very strong low-level jet across
the watch area (in excess of 60 knots per KTLX and KINX radars), the
overall large-scale forcing is lifting north, away from the area.
This is reflected in the objectively analyzed effective shear
calculations, which decrease to less than 30 knots across central
and southern Oklahoma.

The character of this environment is reflected in regional radar
imagery. Namely, thunderstorms across the area are mostly anafrontal
in nature, either forming north of, or along and rapidly
transitioning to north of, a slowly southeast moving composite cold front/outflow boundary. As long as storms remain north of this
effective cold front/outflow boundary, the damaging wind potential
will be less than if the storms were along or ahead of the boundary
(although not completely zero given the strength of the low-level
flow).

One area where thunderstorms are closer to the composite cold
front/outflow boundary is across eastern Kay and much of Osage
counties in north-central Oklahoma, where the greatest potential of
severe thunderstorm winds occurring is found.

Elsewhere, despite the post-frontal nature of the thunderstorms,
strong elevated instability remains in place across Oklahoma, thanks
in part to steep midlevel lapse rates. Thus, isolated large hail
will remain possible with the strongest thunderstorm cores.

..Marsh.. 05/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8lIql5x48eUtTyT6PyXG332O--lzW69Brujlgx3nxYXOE_g8SDp6d5xQmh555U6VsAg4cPShO= wvkBvXGPB61ZGvBO64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35309997 36649779 37339640 38029502 38239372 37999311
37469287 36899307 35409716 35169803 35009891 35039983
35309997=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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