ACUS11 KWNS 191954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191954=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-192200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191954Z - 192200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind may continue through
late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...While convection remains generally disorganized, a
southeastward outflow surge has recently been noted in the ArkLaTex
vicinity, with a 44 kt gust recently observed at Texarkana. Some
heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates has occurred
downstream of this outflow surge, and continued updraft development
along the outflow is expected through late afternoon, as it moves
through a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment.=20

The 18Z SHV sounding continues to depict weak deep-layer shear, and
some weakening of low-level flow has been noted in the SHV VWP. As a
result, the ongoing storm cluster is expected to remain relatively disorganized. However, given the presence of a well-defined outflow
moving through a warm and moist environment, at least localized
instances of damaging wind will be possible through late afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8naOgAInj5kjqYPHo2hrgMBdYbu2_AxaaEcYGlGS-Z1gg0eqT7Z7KRWn46Rc_wPGG4Nrua1Xr= 3AZhxfw3noA0-N73_Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34359320 34349223 34199185 33859166 32939180 32599192
32279216 32039251 31849327 31879395 32039440 32409464
32869476 33089473 33209430 33859363 34359320=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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