ACUS11 KWNS 192315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192315=20
NYZ000-200045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwest New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192315Z - 200045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur with an approaching small bow
echo if it can maintain intensity and reach the Lake Erie shoreline
before boundary layer stabilization sets in. Should this scenario
occur, a WW issuance would be needed.

DISCUSSION...A small bow echo signature, embedded within a broader
persistent elongated convective system, continues to rapidly track
eastward toward Buffalo, NY, where the boundary layer remains
unstable. Western NY is under the influence of a 500 mb wind
maximum, which is grazing the area from the north, resulting in
35-40 kts of effective bulk shear, which is oriented roughly normal
to the elongated MCS. Given mid 80s F surface temperatures and 7+
C/km boundary layer lapse rates, combined with the aforementioned
vertical wind shear, it is plausible that this bow echo signature
may cross the U.S. border near Buffalo in the next hour or so.
Severe gusts are possible, so a WW issuance may be possible if
short-term trends suggest that the bow echo will maintain intensity.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_OkXVndCbYdpyOkQICclu04jWtwIe4w3VsG-mXwWN9Gji1a6WYoAZxlWSsQONo_1q10yrie7H= ea5e3bBnla4XwDHrjY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43277913 43367881 43397832 43387784 43277747 43047722
42787721 42437752 42307796 42367862 42497911 42647910
42847905 42977907 43277913=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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