ACUS11 KWNS 212310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212310=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-220045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0820
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into the western
Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212310Z - 220045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will remain possible with ongoing
thunderstorms for another couple of hours. Watch issuance remains
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Several ongoing thunderstorms are noted within a narrow
corridor of locally greater surface-based buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE per latest objective analysis) on the cool side of a
quasi-stationary surface boundary where low-level moisture is
greater. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (generally 7-8 C/km as
sampled by the 18z AMA observed sounding) and greater effective
shear (25-35 kts) within the vicinity of the surface baroclinic zone
will continue to support a threat for isolated large hail with these
ongoing storms. Recent MRMS and other MESH estimates support this,
with values having ranged from 1-2" with these storms over the past
hour. This potential is expected to persist for another 1-2 hours
before convective intensity gradually wanes amid increasing
inhibition and low-level cold advection.=20

Farther west, an isolated, high-based thunderstorm has recently
developed on the Sacramento Mountains. Isolated marginally severe
hail and gusty winds may also accompany this cell as it develops
eastward amid a drier, more well-mixed boundary layer.

Given the limited spatial/temporal extent of this severe potential,
watch issuance remains unlikely.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5r0O6BKiMC8au_NDaDYc1kc9rY-wa5sSrSE2Xf5WLzB0Sb43ko8mYPiYz6HoVEpEZz6fuVLuj= nrkZDOFIevZab4PH2I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32940305 32850395 32940489 33260506 33590490 34120414
34630381 35330341 35800289 35880253 35700228 34480214
33650237 33180258 32940305=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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