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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0826

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 22 18:10:20 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 221810
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221809=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-222045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0826
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0109 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of north GA into Upstate SC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221809Z - 222045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for localized damaging wind and a brief tornado
    may develop later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary baroclinic zone is in place near
    the NC/SC border early this afternoon. South of the primary thermal
    gradient, backed surface winds are observed within a broader
    confluence zone from parts of north GA into Upstate SC. Continued heating/destabilization is expected to result in additional
    thunderstorm development across this area through the afternoon.
    This area will be somewhat removed from stronger low/midlevel flow
    across parts of the TN/OH Valleys, but moderate buoyancy and locally
    enhanced deep-layer shear within the zone of backed surface winds
    may support at least transient storm organization, and a marginal
    supercell or two cannot be ruled out.=20

    Weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity and
    will temper the magnitude of the threat, but localized damaging wind
    could accompany the strongest storms. A brief tornado also cannot be
    ruled out, given the presence of modestly enhanced low-level
    shear/SRH within a very moist environment.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 05/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ysCnAM58V9mg32ZlobhagSb0fLkcl0cJO7JKo_bP_ZKueTMN7AkfNjOwjYvGlgEOFbMVoWEe= UaNTHnDy3OzIjHbK_A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

    LAT...LON 35008478 35138282 34958212 34928120 34748104 34448115
    34328131 34088178 33968220 33998349 34088420 34828471
    35008478=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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