ACUS11 KWNS 222010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222009=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-222215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Texas...the Texas Panhandle and
far southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 222009Z - 222215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is likely over the next several
hours across portions of far eastern NM and West TX. A mix of multi
cells and transient supercells may pose a risk for damaging winds
and hail. A WW is possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, regional visible imagery showed a
building cumulus field across portions of far eastern NM, West TX
and the southern TX Panhandle. Towers within this cu field have
steadily deepened indicating erosion of remaining inhibition
shortly. Amid strong diurnal heating and weak ascent from a
subtropical disturbance aloft, area RAP and Observed AMA soundings
show surface temperatures now warming into the upper 80s to low 90s
F, which will exceed convective temperature in the next couple of
hours. This should support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon.

While a gradient in surface dewpoints is evident in area obs, steep
low and mid-level lapse rates are supporting sufficient buoyancy
(1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) for strong updrafts. Deep-layer shear is
not overly large, generally 20-30 kt. This suggests a mixed mode of
multi cell clusters and transient supercells. Hail will be possible
with the stronger storms. Numerous storm interactions and the modest
low-level moisture favoring stronger downdrafts and cold pool
development should also result in fairly rapid upscale growth into
one or more clusters or an MCS. Thus, the risk for damaging winds is
also possible, and expected to increase with time.

Current expectations are for storms to develop withing the warmer
and more well-mixed air mass over West TX and the southern Panhandle
before expanding in coverage farther east. Additional CI remains
possible along the southward moving cold front farther north.
However, this has become less certain in recent CAM runs. The severe
risk should gradually increase this afternoon and evening with a WW
possible in the next couple of hours.

..Lyons/Hart.. 05/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!61F-UQgMoGsCPDp7ODUO436VAPUVECCDU2S3Ss4F859yMr2nkaPvC-epY1UBqtgySi9Ma4i65= X9UENw8QlQR-6EZIxM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 33170221 34080303 35660128 35729976 34819947 34439941
33169947 32609951 31539963 31160007 30890080 30800162
31080186 31530183 32640199 33170221=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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