ACUS11 KWNS 230456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230456=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-230730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern into south central Oklahoma
through central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230456Z - 230730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong lingering storms may be slow to undergo substantive
further weakening, and could continue to pose a risk for localized
strong to severe gusts and some hail through 1-3 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Near the leading edge of a broad and otherwise
weakening eastward propagating, convectively generated surface cold
pool, a narrow corridor of 2-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises
has developed as vigorous convective development persists. This is
being aided by continuing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer
air characterized by sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, as lift
remains sufficient to overcome increasing inhibition with surface
cooling.

How long this persists remains unclear. Mid/upper support does not
appear particularly strong, and vertical shear is generally weak, in
the presence of 10-15 kt westerly deep-layer mean wind fields.=20
However, given the current strength of the ongoing convective
development, and the potential instability present ahead of activity
across and east of the I-35 corridor, storms may be slow to undergo
substantive further weakening as it slowly develops eastward through
06-08Z.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-pOGw189iRsRScgmpep06nwZyBc6OALj6IMBmixTxZxpmprFebnbunuPhN0acokTqtKCHuWpW= E2hB5z2UyosEGW0_o4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...

LAT...LON 30869831 31569847 31689860 32589806 33389811 33909806
34189847 34479870 34939854 35029781 34499666 31439710
30869831=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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